Anti-Immigrant Stance Hurting GOP in Texas

[Toro]

The Troubled Texas GOP
By JONATHAN GURWITZ
July 7, 2007; Page A6

SAN ANTONIO, Texas -- In 1994 George W. Bush delivered the coup de graçe for the Republican revolution in Texas by defeating incumbent Gov. Ann Richards. The GOP then went on to complete its ascendancy in the state.

But is Texas now slipping away from the GOP? The answer is more than a little surprising, and it's not just because of the president's sagging approval ratings. ...

In Dallas, moreover, Republicans imploded. Democrats ended decades of GOP dominance last fall by winning the county judge's seat, the district attorney's office and 41 out of 42 contested judicial races -- election results the Dallas Morning News dubbed a "Democratic deluge." ...

Many Republicans would like to believe that they are only experiencing a temporary downdraft caused by the unpopularity of the Iraq war and President Bush -- conventional wisdom that seems to forget that Mr. Bush's success in gubernatorial and presidential elections is a large reason why the GOP completed its domination of state politics. It was only in 2002 that the party won control of the legislature. ...

Not everyone, however, is buying this assessment. Royal Masset, a political consultant and long-time political director for the Republican Party of Texas -- who played a key role in organizing the grassroots support that took the GOP from marginality to an overwhelming majority -- has been predicting a reversal for years.

"There's a certain inevitability in demographics," he told me. "We knew that if we could win 40% of the Hispanic vote," as Mr. Bush did in 2004, "we'd control Texas until 2030." But in 2006, the number of Texas Hispanics who voted Republican fell to between 30%-35% (depending on the poll).

This shift alone spells trouble for Republicans. Many conservatives may not want to hear it, but Mr. Masset puts the blame on talk radio and cable TV reaction to immigration reform. He says an uncompromising attitude toward comprehensive reform and appeals to fear sometimes carry a whiff of racism that alienates Hispanics. "Houston is no more than six years behind Dallas," he warns.

And if the demographic shift continues to gain momentum, there's a real possibility that Democrats could achieve a majority in the Texas House by 2010. In 2003, Tom DeLay helped redraw the state's congressional districts to give Republicans six new seats in Congress. In just a few years, Democrats could turn the tables. Mr. Masset sums it up this way: "This thing with the Latino vote is deadly serious."

Last month, an Austin-based polling and political consulting firm decided to quantify the GOP's standing in the state. "We were frustrated by people talking about how bad things are for Republicans in Texas," says Marc DelSignore, vice president of Baselice & Associates, Inc. What his firm found dovetailed with the national polls and Mr. Masset's political forecast. Older and white voters who predominate in suburban and rural communities continue to have positive impressions about the Republican Party, but there's an image problem among the state's growing number of younger voters and Hispanic voters, who are more numerous in urban centers. "When we looked at the numbers," Mr. DelSignore says, "this grew into a compelling narrative."

And why not? A similar flip happened in California in the 1990s. What was once Reagan Country became a Democratic stronghold. GOP Gov. Pete Wilson's get-tough approach to immigration was an undeniable factor. ...

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB118376667845459718.html?mod=todays_us_opinion

 

[William Joyce]

What's hurting the GOP in Texas is what's hurting them in all states: Hispanics, like all other non-white groups, do not vote Republican. They vote Democrat. That's a fact. That fact won't change. The Democrats see whites as inconveniences to be climbed over, stopped in their tracks or run through the mulcher. All of which makes it pretting fucking curious that Bush wants amnesty for 20 million illegal Hispanics. Unless you factor in that he's a total idiot.