American Conservative on why he believes the Polls are all Fake

[Procrustes Stretched]

He writes simply:

"Poll after poll I’ve looked into this election cycle has found similar results. Trump is ahead, but because of a new coalition of voters that is younger and browner than anything America has seen in the Trump era, let alone this century. Which is why I still believe, despite this consistency, that all the polls are fake. Certainly, it’s Trump’s race to lose. But Trump, his campaign, and the GOP should campaign like the race will come down to a few thousand votes in a handful of states—because it probably will."

Trump Is Winning—But Don’t Believe the Polls

The data underpinning the current polling trends are unconvincing.

www.theamericanconservative.com

This is from - "Bradley Devlin is the political editor for The American Conservative. Previously, he was an Analysis Reporter for the Daily Caller, and has been published in the Daily Wire and the Daily Signal, among other publications that don’t include the word “Daily.”"

He is no Liberal. He is not what many MAGA will surely now accuse him of being. He was connected to: OMG!

The Daily Caller is a right-wing news and opinion website based in Washington, D.C.[7] It was founded by former Fox News host Tucker Carlson and political pundit Neil Patel in 2010. Launched as a "conservative answer to The Huffington Post", The Daily Caller quadrupled its audience and became profitable by 2012, surpassing several rival websites by 2013. In 2020, the site was described by The New York Times as having been "a pioneer in online conservative journalism".[8] The Daily Caller is a member of the White House press pool.


The Daily Wire is an American conservative news website and media company founded in 2015 by political commentator Ben Shapiro and film director Jeremy Boreing.[2][3] The company is a major publisher on Facebook,[4][5][6] and produces podcasts such as The Ben Shapiro Show.[3] The Daily Wire has also produced various films and video series. Its DailyWire+ video on demand platform launched in 2022, and its children's video platform Bentkey in 2023. The Daily Wire is based in Nashville, Tennessee.

Bradley doesn't appear to be playing "gotcha games" here, or feeding a narrative that plays into one side or the other in the crazy views of the horse race polls. He appears to have looked at the data and then formed an opinion, rather than having gone into the data with a partisan opinion at hand.

 

[Rambunctious]

So if you want Biden gone and Trump to win you must vote... do not sit this one out or they will steal it again.... take someone with you that wants to vote for Trump... learn to ballot harvest... and talk to people... if they are on the fence talk them down....
After 4 years of trying I finally have convinced a golf friend to vote for Trump.... that is what we must do...

 

[MarathonMike]

So if you want Biden gone and Trump to win you must vote... do not sit this one out or they will steal it again.... take someone with you that wants to vote for Trump... learn to ballot harvest... and talk to people... if they are on the fence talk them down....
After 4 years of trying I finally have convinced a golf friend to vote for Trump.... that is what we must do...

What we should assume is the swing states will be close and every vote will matter. It would be great to see blue states flipping red but given the ability of the Democrats and their Media to inflame Trump hate and manufacture lawsuits, I wouldn't count on that.

 

[justoffal]

He writes simply:

"Poll after poll I’ve looked into this election cycle has found similar results. Trump is ahead, but because of a new coalition of voters that is younger and browner than anything America has seen in the Trump era, let alone this century. Which is why I still believe, despite this consistency, that all the polls are fake. Certainly, it’s Trump’s race to lose. But Trump, his campaign, and the GOP should campaign like the race will come down to a few thousand votes in a handful of states—because it probably will."

Trump Is Winning—But Don’t Believe the Polls

The data underpinning the current polling trends are unconvincing.

www.theamericanconservative.com

This is from - "Bradley Devlin is the political editor for The American Conservative. Previously, he was an Analysis Reporter for the Daily Caller, and has been published in the Daily Wire and the Daily Signal, among other publications that don’t include the word “Daily.”"

He is no Liberal. He is not what many MAGA will surely now accuse him of being. He was connected to: OMG!

The Daily Caller is a right-wing news and opinion website based in Washington, D.C.[7] It was founded by former Fox News host Tucker Carlson and political pundit Neil Patel in 2010. Launched as a "conservative answer to The Huffington Post", The Daily Caller quadrupled its audience and became profitable by 2012, surpassing several rival websites by 2013. In 2020, the site was described by The New York Times as having been "a pioneer in online conservative journalism".[8] The Daily Caller is a member of the White House press pool.


The Daily Wire is an American conservative news website and media company founded in 2015 by political commentator Ben Shapiro and film director Jeremy Boreing.[2][3] The company is a major publisher on Facebook,[4][5][6] and produces podcasts such as The Ben Shapiro Show.[3] The Daily Wire has also produced various films and video series. Its DailyWire+ video on demand platform launched in 2022, and its children's video platform Bentkey in 2023. The Daily Wire is based in Nashville, Tennessee.

Bradley doesn't appear to be playing "gotcha games" here, or feeding a narrative that plays into one side or the other in the crazy views of the horse race polls. He appears to have looked at the data and then formed an opinion, rather than having gone into the data with a partisan opinion at hand.

Yeah....I don't think there are any REAL POLLS left. None.

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

What we should assume is the swing states will be close and every vote will matter. It would be great to see blue states flipping red but given the ability of the Democrats and their Media to inflame Trump hate and manufacture lawsuits, I wouldn't count on that.

I am curious where you acquired this amazing ability not to be influenced by the media ... an ability you think nobody else possesses... amazing...

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

Yeah....I don't think there are any REAL POLLS left. None.

The polls are all scientific and are perfectly fine. The discrepancies between polls and real world results come from the errors that come from self-reporting. Circumstances change. People often make a different decision in a voting booth than they do on a 60 second phone call. New information arises, and it changes people's votes or their will to vote at all.

 

[justoffal]

The polls are all scientific and are perfectly fine. The discrepancies between polls and real world results come from the errors that come from self-reporting. Circumstances change. People often make a different decision in a voting booth than they do on a 60 second phone call. New information arises, and it changes people's votes or their will to vote at all.

Doubtful.... The pressure to find favorable results is too great.

I think you underestimate the financial pressure pressed on these institutions. Having said that certainly your point about last minute mind changing is relevant.

I am familiar with the sampling process. It assumes
a lot. The method may be scientific but the components are highly subjective. I guess if the public was static instead of dynamic a repeating poll method would eventually tune to the task. As it is we use Algorithms instead to generate a best guess.

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

Doubtful.... The pressure to find favorable results is too great.

Nonsense. No such pressure exists. This is conspiracy horseshit.

You can parse the methods of every scientific poll. And you will not find this nonsense there.

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

justoffal

Polls only tell us what they tell us. Even a biased set of questions does not make a poll "unscientific". It still shows us a snapshot of people's answers to the questions, biased or not.

Polls don't lie. People lie about their results. And if you do enough of them, they start to paint a picture of reality. And if you do enough of them close enough to an election, you will pretty much get an accurate result that matches with the election result within the margin of error. Just like in 2016.

 

[justoffal]

Nonsense. No such pressure exists. This is conspiracy horseshit.

You can parse the methods of every scientific poll. And you will not find this nonsense there.

Sorry but you're just wrong about the poll affiliations and sponsors.

Jo

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

Sorry but you're just wrong about the poll affiliations and sponsors.

That's not compelling.

And if it were true and was a reasoned conclusion at which you arrived after a study of the evidence, you could point that out in the methods, instead of regurgitating a soundbyte you heard.

But that isn't going to happen.

Maybe where you are getting confused is here:

Yes, some organizations may want a certain result, so they load the questions. Again, that doesn't make a poll unscientific. It gives you an approximate snapshot of people's answers to the loaded questions. That doesn't impugn the polling math or methods. But anyone who then says it accurately represents how people will vote or behave in general is lying, hoping you don't see the bias in the questions.

The poll didn't lie. The people who interpret it often do.

 

[okfine]

He writes simply:

"Poll after poll I’ve looked into this election cycle has found similar results. Trump is ahead, but because of a new coalition of voters that is younger and browner than anything America has seen in the Trump era, let alone this century. Which is why I still believe, despite this consistency, that all the polls are fake. Certainly, it’s Trump’s race to lose. But Trump, his campaign, and the GOP should campaign like the race will come down to a few thousand votes in a handful of states—because it probably will."

Trump Is Winning—But Don’t Believe the Polls

The data underpinning the current polling trends are unconvincing.

www.theamericanconservative.com

This is from - "Bradley Devlin is the political editor for The American Conservative. Previously, he was an Analysis Reporter for the Daily Caller, and has been published in the Daily Wire and the Daily Signal, among other publications that don’t include the word “Daily.”"

He is no Liberal. He is not what many MAGA will surely now accuse him of being. He was connected to: OMG!

The Daily Caller is a right-wing news and opinion website based in Washington, D.C.[7] It was founded by former Fox News host Tucker Carlson and political pundit Neil Patel in 2010. Launched as a "conservative answer to The Huffington Post", The Daily Caller quadrupled its audience and became profitable by 2012, surpassing several rival websites by 2013. In 2020, the site was described by The New York Times as having been "a pioneer in online conservative journalism".[8] The Daily Caller is a member of the White House press pool.


The Daily Wire is an American conservative news website and media company founded in 2015 by political commentator Ben Shapiro and film director Jeremy Boreing.[2][3] The company is a major publisher on Facebook,[4][5][6] and produces podcasts such as The Ben Shapiro Show.[3] The Daily Wire has also produced various films and video series. Its DailyWire+ video on demand platform launched in 2022, and its children's video platform Bentkey in 2023. The Daily Wire is based in Nashville, Tennessee.

Bradley doesn't appear to be playing "gotcha games" here, or feeding a narrative that plays into one side or the other in the crazy views of the horse race polls. He appears to have looked at the data and then formed an opinion, rather than having gone into the data with a partisan opinion at hand.

I have no problem flushing a "daily"

 

[IM2]

This just doesn't make sense.

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

So if you want Biden gone and Trump to win you must vote... do not sit this one out or they will steal it again.... take someone with you that wants to vote for Trump... learn to ballot harvest... and talk to people... if they are on the fence talk them down....
After 4 years of trying I finally have convinced a golf friend to vote for Trump.... that is what we must do...

There was no steal, but there was a failed attempt by Trump.

 

[MarathonMike]

It seems a bit ridiculous to argue over someone's opinion of whether polls are fake. Everyone has their own opinion on polls.

 

[lennypartiv]

If Biden leads the poll, of course we're going to think it's fake.

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

If Biden leads the poll, of course we're going to think it's fake.

Thank you for the insight into the Russian troll farm.

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

It seems a bit ridiculous to argue over someone's opinion of whether polls are fake. Everyone has their own opinion on polls.

You may want to go back and read your own comments on this type of thing.

next

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

interesting --

The polls have shown Donald J. Trump with an edge for eight straight months, but there’s one big flashing warning sign suggesting that his advantage might not be quite as stable as it looks.

That warning sign: His narrow lead is built on gains among voters who aren’t paying close attention to politics, who don’t follow traditional news and who don’t regularly vote.

To an extent that hasn’t been true in New York Times/Siena College polling in the last eight years, disengaged voters are driving the overall polling results and the story line about the election.

The Shaky Foundation of Trump’s Lead: Disengaged Voters

The Biden team faces questions of its own: Why have these voters backed away from him, and can his campaign find a way to reach them?

www.nytimes.com

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

Yeah....I don't think there are any REAL POLLS left. None.

You don't have to. You seem to rarely deal with the world outside anyway.