Of course it's speculation. But these are the questions we need to be able to answer in order to give you the answer you are looking for. You do want to find out if we are alone don't you? Well at least this guy Drake has thought it out.
You see, this is where I have a problem with you. From some odd reason, you seem to think YOUR speculations carry more weight or sophistication than MINE! You make the rather arrogant inference that YOUR guy has "thought it out" while my argument is nonsensical and all in my head. It's like you don't get that we're both practicing a faith-based belief in something that cannot be proved. In spite of all the evidence I've offered to support my suppositions, you waddle in with some total conjecture on probability as if that is proven scientific fact to refute my position.
He was telling how they weren't finding any suns with planets surrounding them and then another telescope in another country was the first to find one. Then they figured out what they were doing wrong. So they started finding lots of stars with suns surrounding them. Then they realized the easiest suns to find are the ones that circle their stars in just 4 days. But what they need to find is a star with a Jupiter. Jupiter protects Earth from meteors and asteroids. And now we have found lots of suns with Jupiters surrounding them. Surely there must be earth planets there too. We just don't know yet because they are so far away and all we see are dots.
Huh? You are really getting mixed up here... stars with suns surrounding them? Wtf? You mean stars (suns) with planets surrounding them? And I am terribly sorry but "surely there must be" is NOT a scientific conclusion any more valid than "surely there must be a flying spaghetti monster!"
You are right, we don't know, all we see are tiny dots. In fact, the closest place in our universe where intelligent life on another planet MIGHT be possible, is so far away we'll NEVER go there using conventional physics as we currently understand. Unless we unlock some secret of how to warp space-time or travel through a wormhole, we're never going to even reach the nearest star with a probe, much less a manned flight. It would take thousands of years to reach at our current level of technology. And there is far from any guarantee there would be anything there at all. In fact, it would be one helluva dice roll to discover intelligent life revolving around the very first nearest star we come to.
But my god how much more we know today because of people like me who believe there is life on other planets. If it were up to people like you we wouldn't even look. You are too negative.
The reason we KNOW anything is because we are INSPIRED creatures! We are driven by our intrinsic spiritual understanding of something greater than self. It's the thing that made us what we are today. It's the reason we were able to harness fire and invent the wheel. Understanding that aspect of who we are doesn't make me negative or mean that I don't want to look.
But either way it sounds like you will believe in god right? I just think its funny that most theists tend to want to believe we are alone. You just happen to be an anomaly when you said intelligent life elsewhere would prove god. That's new. What most Christians say is that life somewhere else won't change their faith because the bible and Jesus were for earth only. That's our story. Has nothing to do with the rest of the universe. LOL. But didn't the bible (old or new) tell us we were alone?
I don't have "blind faith" in anything! I've always been a person who needs to find evidence for what I believe is true. I've found evidence for spiritual nature in my everyday life experience. I know intrinsically there is a spiritual nature or energy force beyond the physical because I relate to it daily in my life and it benefits me greatly. If I tried to convince you there was no such thing as a cell phone, would you believe me? What if I told you that cell phones are just a figment of your imagination and not real? What if I presented some nutbag's theory that cell phones aren't real, even though you have one and use it daily? Are you ever likely to accept my viewpoint? Of course not, because you KNOW what you KNOW! I can talk until I am blue in the face... call you stupid... make fun of you... whatever.... you are STILL going to believe in cell phones because you benefit from them daily!
As for intelligent life, I presented my argument in the OP. When I evaluate the myriad of potentials and possibilities, I find it incredible that intelligent life exists HERE! It took millions of years and thousands of events happening, some of them natural and some unexplained as of yet. Then it took some absolute luck (or divine intervention). And still, we cannot answer the most basic fundamental question of how life originated.
I'm going to dismiss the remainder of your rant against Biblical dogma because this isn't a religious argument.