Aging Boomers Are About to Rekindle the Senior-Housing Market

[1srelluc]

https://archive.is/sv2cD

Senior housing has been one of the biggest disappointments for commercial real-estate investors. Now thanks to millions of aging baby boomers, that may be about to change.

The oldest boomers turn 80 in less than a year. And by 2030, the U.S. population 80 years and older is expected to increase by more than four million people to 18.8 million. History suggests that a growing number of people conclude at that milestone age they can no longer live comfortably or safely at home and seek a senior facility.
Many will find themselves on a wait list. Development of senior housing nearly ground to a halt during the pandemic hasn’t picked up much.

The sector is expected to move from its former glut to a shortage in the next five years. More than 560,000 new units are needed to meet all the demand by 2030, but only 191,000 will be added at current development rates, according to data service NIC MAP.

“We’ve never had a population pyramid that looks like this,” said Arick Morton, chief executive of NIC MAP. “The senior housing industry would need to develop twice as many units as it has ever developed in any single calendar year every year to keep up.”


Oh hell no, this boomer isn't going anywhere.

I will built a wheelchair ramp and hire two "nurses" named Amber and Tiffany.

All those cold-calling relators can pound sand.

In fact, I need to do some research about how I can leverage this "crisis" to increase my personal wealth at the expense of millennials.

 

[rightwinger]

In my community if a developer wants to put in an affordable development for young couples, it doesn’t have a chance

If the developer resubmits as a 55+ community, it goes right through

 

[1srelluc]

In my community if a developer wants to put in an affordable development for young couples, it doesn’t have a chance

If the developer resubmits as a 55+ community, it goes right through

LOL....They should just redesignate my subdivision as for 55+, there's not a kid in the whole place....Weekends maybe when their grandkids are visiting.

 

[JLW]

I agree about senior housing being a growth industry and the love the idea of two nurses named Amber and Tiffany.

Only problem is Amber and Tiffany working full time at your home will cost you over $4,000 a week at today’s prices.

Your kids will say, “Hey, Pops we have a nice nursing home down the street with good nurses named Gertie and Bertha at half the price!”

 

[odanny]

I thought senior housing only existed in Florida, interesting.

 

[1srelluc]

I agree about senior housing being a growth industry and the love the idea of two nurses named Amber and Tiffany.

Only problem is Amber and Tiffany working full time for home care will cost you $4,000 a week at today’s prices.

Your kids will say, “Hey, Pops we have a nice nursing home down the street with good nurses named Gertie and Bertha at half the price!”

They can try.

I will continue to exist out of spite.

Oh, BTW.....7K a month for Nurse Kachet care.....Sure enough, it's just down the street.

 

[gipper]

LOL....They should just redesignate my subdivision as for 55+, there's not a kid in the whole place....Weekends maybe when their grandkids are visiting.

You might want to rethink that. There are lots of single ladies in those senior facilities looking for attention.

 

[Raynine]

I am going to be 80 soon. The Great Society experiment had a lot of negative effects on the American way of life and the deterioration of the extended family changed things in ways that do not bode well for a lot of seniors. Before social experimentation and mass urbanization, life in the US was much simpler. I recall watching "Jeff's Collie" or the original Lassie series on black and white television. Tommy Retig was Jeff miller, and he lived with a widowed mother and grandfather on a farm.

They lived a simple bucolic life taking care of each other as best they could. They would make occasional trips into Capital City for supplies but they mostly stayed on their farm to live for each other.

I don't recall any stories in that series about Jeff's mother having a string of violent alcoholic boyfriends that she became impregnated by so the houshold was filled with government dependent children all with different biological fathers that were out of the picture. But this was long before brilliant college-educated sociology created the Great Society.

Maybe that was unrealistic, I do not know, but I do know that a lot seniors today that are still above ground lived a very selfish existence at the behest of the government and many have no relatioship at all with any children they produced. So living in an extended family situation long ago went by the boards.

In addition, too many kids today die before their parents due Great Society drugs so a lot of seniors are bringing up their grandchildren. I do not know if senior housing is going to help these people.

 

[odanny]

https://read.dukeupress.edu/demography/article/61/2/541/386421/Are-Rural-Areas-Holdouts-in-the-Second-Demographic

 

[Raynine]

View attachment 1077713

https://read.dukeupress.edu/demography/article/61/2/541/386421/Are-Rural-Areas-Holdouts-in-the-Second-Demographic

That's very interesting. I can't read it now because I am going to the gym. But I will study it when I get back.

 

[DGS49]

I just got back from The Villages, Florida. It is a virtual "Disney World" for aging boomers, and it is wonderful for those who can afford it - which is a shitload of Seniors, believe me.

OTOH, I drive a courtesy bus for Seniors, most of whom live in a "Senior High Rise," which (from what I'm seeing) is a collection of apartment buildings with exclusively one-bedroom, modest apartments where people go to live out their last years, when their own resources dwindle down, and there is no one in the family willing to take them in. These residents are not "poor," exactly, and most of them are sharp enough to exploit all the available medical benefits, but they are one major expense away from being on the street. We also serve people in their own family homes, which are old, decrepit, and in need of repairs.

As for the sort of housing alluded to in the OP - one step before death or a nursing home - these are also going up like crazy in my area. Of course, I live in Allegheny County, PA, one of the oldest counties in the country. They are no cheap, by the way.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

In my community if a developer wants to put in an affordable development for young couples, it doesn’t have a chance

If the developer resubmits as a 55+ community, it goes right through

The reason against affordable for young families always is: you'll want a tax abatement AND have more kids in the school system. No, thanks

 

[Moonglow]

In my family we die in our home helped by family members

 

[odanny]

In my family we die in our home helped by family members

That has been the way of the world since the first Homo sapiens walked upright, it is only in recent times, a millisecond in human history, that we bundle up granny and drop her off at the nursing home.

On the one hand, they have medical care there and trained staff, on the other, you are away from your family, some of whom either don't have the time or the motivation to care for you. It's becoming a marker of cultural decline, one of many. Less developed countries know they will be caring for their elders, there is no gray area, no nursing home to consider.