After Repeated Failures, It’s Time To Permanently Dump Epidemic Models

[Sunsettommy]

Issues and Insights

After Repeated Failures, It’s Time To Permanently Dump Epidemic Models

Michael Fumento
April 18, 2020

Excerpt:

The … crisis we face is unparalleled in modern times,” said the World Health Organization’s assistant director, while its director general proclaimed it “likely the greatest peacetime challenge that the United Nations and its agencies have ever faced.” This was based on a CDC computer model projection predicting as many as 1.4 million deaths from just two countries.

So when did they say this about COVID-19? Trick question: It was actually about the Ebola virus in Liberia and Sierra Leone five years ago, and the ultimate death toll was under 8,000.

With COVID-19 having peaked (the highest date was April 4), despite the best efforts of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to increase numbers by first saying any death with the virus could be considered a death from the virus and then again this week by saying a positive test isn’t even needed, you can see where this is going.

Since the AIDS epidemic, people have been pumping out such models with often incredible figures. For AIDS, the Public Health Service announced (without documenting) there would be 450,000 cases by the end of 1993, with 100,000 in that year alone. The media faithfully parroted it. There were 17,325 by the end of that year, with about 5,000 in 1993. SARS (2002-2003) was supposed to kill perhaps “millions,” based on analyses. It killed 744 before disappearing.

LINK

I realized early on that the mortality rate of China Virus will end up slightly higher than THIS Years Flu mortality rate.

 

[Coyote]

Permanently dump? Why? Models are only as good as the data they have at any given time and the data for this totally new virus is constantly changing. To claim that the CDC is trying to “increase deaths” by the virus is a pretty strong claim. If someone dies and shows the distinctive destructive symptoms of the virus, regardless of underlying conditions, it is accurate to say they died from the virus if they had (just like we say they died from the flu).

What alternative methods would you use to balance public health vs public freedom on a temporary basis?

 

[Sunsettommy]

Permanently dump? Why? Models are only as good as the data they have at any given time and the data for this totally new virus is constantly changing. To claim that the CDC is trying to “increase deaths” by the virus is a pretty strong claim. If someone dies and shows the distinctive destructive symptoms of the virus, regardless of underlying conditions, it is accurate to say they died from the virus if they had (just like we say they died from the flu).

What alternative methods would you use to balance public health vs public freedom on a temporary basis?

It is an opinion he made, but he does have a point about massive modeling prediction failures...…., why continue using them with the parameters they use, that are demonstrable failures.

Yes, what they put into those massive modeling failures were clearly "bad" data since the actual death rate is massively well below the modeled rate, to the point it was abject failure.

Using the Flu season history of previous decades would be a good starting point, at least in America.

 

[Sunsettommy]

I find it telling except for Coyote, no one gives a dam about error prone death rate models. It is part of the reason why we have to put absurd widespread lock down in the first place, when the danger is mostly for the elderly, and with significant underlying health problems (lot of it self imposed), hardly anyone below age 50 was ever in danger from the start.

The initial numbers were 2 million deaths, then after weeks of bullcrap it went down massively to 200,000 and then lower after that, but the damage was done, people panicked, allowed overbearing Governors to impose unnecessary shut downs over a virus that is dangerous to a small section of the population.

America with 325 Million people will see a death total of less than 75,000 people, mostly the old and the chronically sick. But they ignore the 35,000- 50,000 ANNUAL deaths to the Flu. Some years it was over 75,000 people who died, yet not a whimper about it.

The Media as usual was part of the problem, posting numerous contradicting news that were obvious bullcrap, heck the partisan attacks is a symbol of ideology and propaganda, the truth was a loser.

Stop being so irrational, stop letting the media, politicians, and partisan hacks lead YOU by the nose into the Twilight Zone!