A Tale of Two Consumers: Gloomy in Polling, But Their Spending Is Just Fine

[excalibur]

The consumer is telling two stories.

One to pollsters, the other with actual spending, which shows economic optimism.

Last week, both Visa and Mastercard, which each process hundreds of billions of annual transactions, told investors they saw no sign of any consumer pullback, which they would expect if consumers really smelled a Great Depression coming:







Retailers reported October sales grew about +5% compared to last year. The National Retail Federation forecasts additional holiday sales growth of +3.7%-4.2% over 2024 levels, showing consumers are still spending like it is a great economy. This week, CBS reported that holiday spending predictions are very optimistic, even though consumers sound gloomier than ever in surveys:






In other words, while people tell pollsters they feel bad about the economy, mostly they are happily spending at or above prior-year levels.

Thus, economists have coined a new post-pandemic term to explain the disconnect. It’s not a recession, it is a “vibe-cession.” Meaning, people say they emotionally feel like they are in a 1930s Great Depression, but they are rationally acting like they’re in the Roaring Twenties.
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch...18a25-a5a1-4541-98f9-7e1a4b5b021d_680x323.png
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☕️ CONTENTEDNESS ☙ Wednesday, November 12, 2025 ☙ C&C NEWS 🦠

A special edition: the affordability crisis undermines MAGA, and we leap into action. Consumer sentiment, China, the Administration, the OBBBA, Epstein, perspective, and much more.

www.coffeeandcovid.com

 

[excalibur]

Headline from the Atlantic, January 2024:



Question asked! And that was even when they were actually trying to boost the economy, rather than destroy it, like now. (Hilariously, the article began by citing Biden’s “champagne-popping” jobs report that, after the election, was revised far downwards in a “correction.” But I digress.)

The San Francisco Federal Reserve compiles a “Daily News Sentiment Index,” which tallies negative words used in media headlines about the economy. Here’s the current chart, as of November 3rd. Notice anything?



Can the media do this? Does media hold the power to convince people that the economy is terrible even though the fundamentals are strong, or even great?

I don’t know, but some people (cough) have concluded the media terrified the entire world into believing an average flu season was a deadly pandemic, and tricked them into putting cut-up t-shirts on their faces, standing six feet apart in checkout lines, and following arrows on supermarket floors like trained hamsters. So.

...​

 

[Marener]

Maybe the fundamentals aren’t great? I think it’s pretty well established we are in an AI bubble.

Outside of capital expenses for AI infrastructure, the economy is basically flat.

If AI fails, it’s a recession. If AI succeeds, tons of people lose jobs.

People are right to be worried.

 

[TimFitz]

The consumer is telling two stories.

One to pollsters, the other with actual spending, which shows economic optimism.

​

Last week, both Visa and Mastercard, which each process hundreds of billions of annual transactions, told investors they saw no sign of any consumer pullback, which they would expect if consumers really smelled a Great Depression coming:​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

Retailers reported October sales grew about +5% compared to last year. The National Retail Federation forecasts additional holiday sales growth of +3.7%-4.2% over 2024 levels, showing consumers are still spending like it is a great economy. This week, CBS reported that holiday spending predictions are very optimistic, even though consumers sound gloomier than ever in surveys:​

​

​

​

​

​

​

In other words, while people tell pollsters they feel bad about the economy, mostly they are happily spending at or above prior-year levels.​

​

Thus, economists have coined a new post-pandemic term to explain the disconnect. It’s not a recession, it is a “vibe-cession.” Meaning, people say they emotionally feel like they are in a 1930s Great Depression, but they are rationally acting like they’re in the Roaring Twenties.​

https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!qbVc!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/4db18a25-a5a1-4541-98f9-7e1a4b5b021d_680x323.png​

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☕️ CONTENTEDNESS ☙ Wednesday, November 12, 2025 ☙ C&C NEWS 🦠

A special edition: the affordability crisis undermines MAGA, and we leap into action. Consumer sentiment, China, the Administration, the OBBBA, Epstein, perspective, and much more.

www.coffeeandcovid.com

That makes sense.

I think the anxiety is over the future, and particularly the endless bullshit, corruption,mismanagement and chaos coming out of the White House.

 

[Leo123]

Bias polling against Republicans has been pretty typical.

 

[whitehall]

You get just the opposite opinion from the NYT and WAPO. Which one do you trust?

 

[MarcATL]

Grasping at straws, the Republicans are.

 

[Doc7505]

Maybe the fundamentals aren’t great? I think it’s pretty well established we are in an AI bubble.

Outside of capital expenses for AI infrastructure, the economy is basically flat.

If AI fails, it’s a recession. If AI succeeds, tons of people lose jobs.

People are right to be worried.

~~~~~~>
General Motors (GM) is directing its suppliers to eliminate Chinese-sourced parts and materials by 2027 as part of a strategy to strengthen its supply chain amid escalating U.S.-China trade tensions. This move aims to reduce reliance on China and enhance production stability in North America.
Many U.S. pharmaceutical companies are considering shifting production from overseas, particularly China, back to the U.S. due to rising costs, supply chain vulnerabilities, and the desire for more control over manufacturing processes. This trend has been encouraged by recent tariffs and investments aimed at boosting domestic production capabilities.
In general U.S. manufacturers are increasingly moving their production away from China due to several factors, including rising labor costs, geopolitical tensions, and supply chain vulnerabilities. This trend has been ongoing for several years, with companies seeking more stable and cost-effective alternatives.
Source:

https://www.autoblog.com/news/gm-orders-suppliers-to-ditch-china-made-parts-by-2027

xxxxxxxxxx​

Manufacturing Already Moved Out of China. Now Where Will It Go?

President Donald Trump’s tariffs may throw a wrench in a popular corporate strategy: shift production away from China and to Southeast Asia.

www.investopedia.com

xxxxxxxxxx​

Manufacturing Already Moved Out of China. Now Where Will It Go?

President Donald Trump’s tariffs may throw a wrench in a popular corporate strategy: shift production away from China and to Southeast Asia.

www.investopedia.com

 

[Rogue AI]

Smart people avoid polling like the plague. That leaves an over abundance of liberal loons answering questions with their feelings.

 

[drudge X]

Projection is consumers will spend $1 trillion this coming holiday season. Leftists must be angry if they contribute to the spending to make Trump look good.

 

[elektra]

Logic, go figure

 

[wamose]

​

Headline from the Atlantic, January 2024:​

​

​

​

Question asked! And that was even when they were actually trying to boost the economy, rather than destroy it, like now. (Hilariously, the article began by citing Biden’s “champagne-popping” jobs report that, after the election, was revised far downwards in a “correction.” But I digress.)​

​

The San Francisco Federal Reserve compiles a “Daily News Sentiment Index,” which tallies negative words used in media headlines about the economy. Here’s the current chart, as of November 3rd. Notice anything?​

​

​

​

Can the media do this? Does media hold the power to convince people that the economy is terrible even though the fundamentals are strong, or even great?​

​

I don’t know, but some people (cough) have concluded the media terrified the entire world into believing an average flu season was a deadly pandemic, and tricked them into putting cut-up t-shirts on their faces, standing six feet apart in checkout lines, and following arrows on supermarket floors like trained hamsters. So.​

​

...​

Economic anxiety is definitely a creation of our Marxist media. Our media is becoming professional at convincing people that the things they see with their own eyes isn't true. Our media feels that the more whiners they can create, the closer they are to their totalitarian objective of total control. MSM prefers pessimism over optimism as a way to convert our people to Marxism. It's impossible for them to be optimistic because they have no ideas or solutions. All they have is a hatred of Trump, which they continue to preach in spite of his string of successes. The bottom line has to be that our media is holding too much sway over our far too large, non-thinking population.

 

[gipper]

Grasping at straws, the Republicans are.

Agreed.

This would be an ideal time for the D Party to go back to their roots and push policies which help working class Americans. They aren’t because they are owned and controlled by the same Zionist billionaires and big corporations the R Party is.

It’s the uniparty in action, but few Americans realize it.

 

[TimFitz]

Bias polling against Republicans has been pretty typical.

Prove it.

 

[TimFitz]

Economic anxiety is definitely a creation of our Marxist media. Our media is becoming professional at convincing people that the things they see with their own eyes isn't true. Our media feels that the more whiners they can create, the closer they are to their totalitarian objective of total control. MSM prefers pessimism over optimism as a way to convert our people to Marxism. It's impossible for them to be optimistic because they have no ideas or solutions. All they have is a hatred of Trump, which they continue to preach in spite of his string of successes. The bottom line has to be that our media is holding too much sway over our far too large, non-thinking population.

Economic anxiety is standing in the grocery store looking at paying twice as much for the same can of coffee you bought last year.

 

[Mac-7]

Lying anti trump pollsters can get any result they want

 

[Marener]

Lying anti trump pollsters can get any result they want

This is what your cult tells itself so that you can just believe whatever you want.

The economy is “booming” according to Trump but people know better.

 

[Mac-7]

This is what your cult tells itself so that you can just believe whatever you want.

The economy is “booming” according to Trump but people know better.

In this case the polls say one thing and the actual credit card spending says the opposite

I dont need a cult to tell me which one is lying

 

[Marener]

In this case the polls say one thing and the actual credit card spending says the opposite

I dont need a cult to tell me which one is lying

It’s not lying, it’s just not telling you the whole story.

Why Has Consumer Spending Remained So Resilient? Evidence from Credit Card Data

www.bostonfed.org

Consumer spending growth is being driven almost exclusively by the wealthy.

 

[Mac-7]

It’s not lying, it’s just not telling you the whole story.

Why Has Consumer Spending Remained So Resilient? Evidence from Credit Card Data

www.bostonfed.org

Consumer spending growth is being driven almost exclusively by the wealthy.

I suspect you are being influenced by far lefties like Mandami snd AOC to hate rich people for being successfull

Its their way of introducing socialism to the masses