A discussion on the stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) and its consequences

[skookerasbil]

All that flap yap, and yet to address the changes we are seeing today. You denialists are a hoot.

We're denialists a thing during the last interglacial cycle? Like now, I'm guessing nobody was noticing the 3mm!

 

[jc456]

Suuuuuuuure you have.


And he's off! Look at him go, running from the topic.


The specific topic you're running from here is your "You can't disprove my crazy theory, so you have to accept that it's right!" philosophy of science, which is unique to you. Science finds the best theory that fits the observed data. Yours is a theory, but it's far, far, far from the best theory, being that it essentially invokes magic.

Still can’t answer, your usual nonsense

 

[jc456]

"20th century portion of our paleotemperature stack is not statistically robust, cannot be considered representative of global temperature changes, and therefore is not the basis of any of our conclusions."

Common sense tells us that

 

[Crick]

The topic of this thread is the stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.

 

[ding]

The topic of this thread is the stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.

So what is the temperature threshold for extensive West Antarctic glaciation?

 

[Crick]

I'm dying to hear. What IS the temperature threshold for extensive West Antarctic glaciation?

 

[Sunsettommy]

The topic of this thread is the stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.

and its consequences yet you ignore the part about Greenland being 10%-25% smaller at the end of the Eemian interglacial period yet the world still went on so did the Polar Bears, the republicans Humans and dodo birds.

=====

"20th century portion of our paleotemperature stack is not statistically robust, cannot be considered representative of global temperature changes, and therefore is not the basis of any of our conclusions."

 

[ding]

I'm dying to hear. What IS the temperature threshold for extensive West Antarctic glaciation?

You don't know? Seems like an important thing to know.

 

[Sunsettommy]

You don't know? Seems like an important thing to know.

He apparently doesn't know, or he would have told us already.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

He apparently doesn't know, or he would have told us already.

It's the exact same number as the observed temperature increase when CO2 increases from 280 to 410 PPM: denier! We have consensus!!

 

[Crick]

You don't know? Seems like an important thing to know.

I'm dying to hear it. Please let us know. What IS the threshold temperature for extensive West Antarctic glaciation?

 

[jc456]

The topic of this thread is the stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.

What about it.

 

[ding]

I'm dying to hear it. Please let us know. What IS the threshold temperature for extensive West Antarctic glaciation?

How many times have I posted this chart? Have you ever looked at it closely? Or even at all?

 

[Crick]

And so... what is the threshold temperature for extensive Antarctic glaciation? The two spots where glaciation is noted take place at approximately 2.5C and 5.5C and in the midst of warming trends. Neither you nor your graph say so, but I assume this is the temperature that corresponds to those O18 levels and thus is the air temperatures in which the snow and ice that formed the core at that point fell to ground. But I will defer to your obvious expertise on this matter. So, what IS the temperature?

 

[ding]

And so... what is the threshold temperature for extensive Antarctic glaciation? The two spots where glaciation is noted take place at approximately 2.5C and 5.5C and in the midst of warming trends. Neither you nor your graph say so, but I assume this is the temperature that corresponds to those O18 levels and thus is the air temperatures in which the snow and ice that formed the core at that point fell to ground. But I will defer to your obvious expertise on this matter. So, what IS the temperature?

Current temperature is 2C cooler than the zero on the superimposed temperature scale.

So the temperature where orbital forcing produces no glaciation in the southern hemisphere is 7C warmer than today.

And the temperature threshold where orbital forcing produces extensive continental southern hemisphere glaciation is 6C warmer than today.

But today the earth's climate is being driven by the threshold for glaciation in the northern hemisphere.

The temperature where orbital forcing produces no glaciation in the northern hemisphere is 3C warmer than today.

And the temperature threshold where orbital forcing produces extensive continental northern hemisphere glaciation is 2C warmer than today.

These aren't model results. This is empirical data from the geologic record.

 

[ding]

thus is the air temperatures in which the snow and ice that formed the core at that point fell to ground.

Incorrect. Those are the temperatures in which orbital forcing triggered extensive continental glaciation.

It should be self evident that orbital forces have existed throughout the history of the earth. Just as it should be self evident that those orbital forces did not always lead to glaciation in the polar regions. In fact, it wasn't until ~3 to 5 million years ago that our planet has ever had glaciation at the northern pole.

So understanding the conditions which orbital forcing trigger glaciation is paramount to understanding the climate of the earth. Do you know why?

 

[Crick]

Current temperature is 2C cooler than the zero on the superimposed temperature scale.

So the temperature where orbital forcing produces no glaciation in the southern hemisphere is 7C warmer than today.

And the temperature threshold where orbital forcing produces extensive continental southern hemisphere glaciation is 6C warmer than today.

But today the earth's climate is being driven by the threshold for glaciation in the northern hemisphere.

The temperature where orbital forcing produces no glaciation in the northern hemisphere is 3C warmer than today.

And the temperature threshold where orbital forcing produces extensive continental northern hemisphere glaciation is 2C warmer than today.

These aren't model results. This is empirical data from the geologic record.

The current temperature WHERE is 2C cooler than the zero on the superimposed scale?

I'm afraid I didn't see any orbital parameters in your graph. You are going to have to explain how you tied orbital forcing into these data. You seem to be claiming that the Earth's current temperatures should be producing robust glaciation in both hemispheres. But that is certainly not what is taking place. Perhaps greenhouse warming is overwhelming the affect of orbital forcing. What do YOU think?

 

[ding]

The current temperature WHERE is 2C cooler than the zero on the superimposed scale?

I'm afraid I didn't see any orbital parameters in your graph. You are going to have to explain how you tied orbital forcing into these data. You seem to be claiming that the Earth's current temperatures should be producing robust glaciation in both hemispheres. But that is certainly not what is taking place. Perhaps greenhouse warming is overwhelming the affect of orbital forcing. What do YOU think?

Dude, if you don't understand how or why the orbit of the earth changes or how those orbital changes affect earth's climate you have no business being in this discussion. Go learn about it and come back to me then. I explained it in post #136.

It should be self evident that orbital forces have existed throughout the history of the earth. Just as it should be self evident that those orbital forces did not always lead to glaciation in the polar regions.

 

[Crick]

I am familiar with those things but that has nothing to do with letting you get away with unjustified leaps.

Again, WHERE is it 2C cooler than the 0 on your scale? The temperature provided by O18 and other proxies is a local temperature.

And, I have to ask about your phrasing. If somewhere is 2C cooler than 0 on that scale, it would be 2C cooler than everywhere on that scale. But I think I know what you were trying to say.

And let's try relating all this to the thread topic. Are you trying to suggest that the WAIS is NOT in the midst of an irreversible collapse?

 

[ding]

I am familiar with those things but that has nothing to do with letting you get away with unjustified leaps.

Again, WHERE is it 2C cooler than the 0 on your scale? The temperature provided by O18 and other proxies is a local temperature.

And, I have to ask about your phrasing. If somewhere is 2C cooler than 0 on that scale, it would be 2C cooler than everywhere on that scale. But I think I know what you were trying to say.

And let's try relating all this to the thread topic. Are you trying to suggest that the WAIS is NOT in the midst of an irreversible collapse?

I don't believe you are familiar with orbital forcing. You don't seem to be able to make the connection between orbital forcing and glaciation. If not all orbital forcing led to glaciation, it can only be because the conditions on the planet were not conducive to glaciation. Specifically, temperature and land mass configuration.

The zero on the temperature scale is at the temperature of the warmest interglacial cycle which was the previous interglacial cycle. The present temperature is 2C cooler than that.

I am saying that we are a long way away from the southern hemisphere ice going anywhere. And that whatever it is that you think is happening is a natural occurrence of an interglacial cycle and not because of anything man has done.