A Cool, Wet Spring Ahead

[Sunsettommy]

See the graph above. It certainly didn't peter out when the AMO went negative from 1965 to 1993. The AMO is not the cause of post-industrial warming.

It was cooling from the mid 1940's to the late 1970's, your temperature chart is a lie because they went to erase the well-known cooling trend of those decades.

 

[Sunsettommy]

Lots of you are disputing the warming trend. There have been countless claims here that its all lies, a huge hoax, UHI and a dozen other harebrained fantasies.

CO2 is the highest its been in 3-fucking-million-fucking-years. That's FIFTEEN TIMES the span of human existence. That ISN'T "feeble".

The Doubling from 280 ppm to 560 ppm is generally around 3.8 W/m2 that is feeble indeed.

 

[Crick]

The Doubling from 280 ppm to 560 ppm is generally around 3.8 W/m2 that is feeble indeed.

ECS is 3C. TCR is 1.8C. Those are not feeble.

This shows a 50% increase has produced a transient response to date of 2 Wcm^-2. That has been sufficient to produce the observed warming, which may have already pushed multiple Earth climate systems (ex: AMOC) past tipping points into new semi-stable states. Calling such an event "feeble" simply shows you are ignorant or dishonest.

 

[Sunsettommy]

ECS is 3C. TCR is 2.5C. Those are not feeble.

I was basically quoting the IPCC and the ECS and TCR is much lower than that now, you are way out of date:


Gavin Schmidt doesn't agree with you,

(1.8°C transient, 3.0°C equilibrium)​

LINK


But many published papers show lower values,

LINK


Here is a long list of published papers showing low warming rate on the doubling of CO2 ppm level,

160 Papers Find Extremely Low CO2 Climate Sensitivity​

(a) Quantified Low Climate Sensitivity to Doubled CO2

LINK

 

[ding]

120 ppm of CO2 HAS changed that fool.

I disagree. The most 120 ppm can impact surface temperatures is 0.5C with the expected value being 0.22C.

 

[Crick]

I was basically quoting the IPCC and the ECS and TCR is much lower than that now, you are way out of date:


Gavin Schmidt doesn't agree with you,

(1.8°C transient, 3.0°C equilibrium)​

LINK


But many published papers show lower values,

View attachment 978070

LINK


Here is a long list of published papers showing low warming rate on the doubling of CO2 ppm level,

160 Papers Find Extremely Low CO2 Climate Sensitivity​

(a) Quantified Low Climate Sensitivity to Doubled CO2

LINK

First, I tried to write that post from my head. The 2.5C I put down for TCR was incorrect and I corrected it (to 1.8C) as soon as I could look it up. So, Gavin Schmidt is quoting AR6.

Out of date?

AR6 was released in 2021. The newest date I see on your graph there is 2017 and I'd guess the average is almost 15 years old.

From AR6, Working Group I, The Physical Science Basis, TCS 3.2.1

Constraints on equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) and transient climate response (TCR) (see Glossary) are based on four main lines of evidence: feedback process understanding, climate change and variability seen within the instrumental record, paleoclimate evidence, and so-called ‘emergent constraints’, whereby a relationship between an observable quantity and either ECS or TCR established within an ensemble of models is combined with observations to derive a constraint on ECS or TCR. In reports up to and including the IPCC Third Assessment Report, ECS and TCR derived directly from ESMs were the primary line of evidence. However, since AR4, historical warming and paleoclimates provided useful additional evidence (Figure TS.16a). This Report differs from previous reports in not directly using climate model estimates of ECS and TCR in the assessed ranges of climate sensitivity. {1.5, 7.5}
...
The AR6 best estimate of ECS is 3°C, the likely range is 2.5°C to 4°C and the very likely range is 2°C to 5°C. There is a high level of agreement among the four main lines of evidence listed above (Figure TS.16b), and altogether it is virtually certain that ECS is larger than 1.5°C, but currently it is not possible to rule out ECS values above 5°C. Therefore, the 5°C upper end of the very likely range is assessed
with medium confidence and the other bounds with high confidence. {7.5.5}

Based on process understanding, warming over the instrumental record, and emergent constraints, the best estimate of TCR is 1.8°C, the likely range is 1.4°C to 2.2°C and the very likely range is 1.2°C to 2.4°C. There is a high level of agreement among the different lines of evidence (Figure TS.16c) (high confidence). {7.5.5}