LiberalsLIE
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- Sep 21, 2020
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4 Reasons Joe Biden Will Lose
1. The Polls Are Wrong
How are the polls wrong? Let me count the ways. After an all-too brief period of soul-searching post-2016, some pollsters and polling companies made minor changes to their methodologies. Namely, some pollsters, started weighting results by education.
Others did not.
The polls showing Joe Biden beating Donald Trump by 15 points belong in the latter group. Polls are still over-sampling Democrats by a large margin and using tiny sample sizes. Some of the most favorable polls for Joe Biden are based on the polling of 500 adults- not even registered voters or likely voters.
Some pollsters are breaking rank and calling foul on garbage polls and shoddy polling methods. The Biden campaign has warned that Joe Biden is not leading the race by double digits.
“I’m a Democrat,” pollster John Zogby said of polls showing Biden that far ahead, “I just don’t think that sampling is accurate.”
Other pollsters are even more dire: “I’m concerned that the industry may be fighting the last war,” lamented Public Opinion Director Lee Miringoff of Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. Pollsters, it would seem, would like to double their margin of error. Which is pollster for “flip a coin”.
Read the other three reasons: 4 Reasons Joe Biden Will Lose
1. The Polls Are Wrong
How are the polls wrong? Let me count the ways. After an all-too brief period of soul-searching post-2016, some pollsters and polling companies made minor changes to their methodologies. Namely, some pollsters, started weighting results by education.
Others did not.
The polls showing Joe Biden beating Donald Trump by 15 points belong in the latter group. Polls are still over-sampling Democrats by a large margin and using tiny sample sizes. Some of the most favorable polls for Joe Biden are based on the polling of 500 adults- not even registered voters or likely voters.
Some pollsters are breaking rank and calling foul on garbage polls and shoddy polling methods. The Biden campaign has warned that Joe Biden is not leading the race by double digits.
“I’m a Democrat,” pollster John Zogby said of polls showing Biden that far ahead, “I just don’t think that sampling is accurate.”
Other pollsters are even more dire: “I’m concerned that the industry may be fighting the last war,” lamented Public Opinion Director Lee Miringoff of Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. Pollsters, it would seem, would like to double their margin of error. Which is pollster for “flip a coin”.
Read the other three reasons: 4 Reasons Joe Biden Will Lose