2025 Deficit comes in at 1.97 Trillion. This Is Way Out of Hand

[80zephyr]

This level of concern over our debt is way over reaction.

It's never going to be the problem that some want it to be.

Trillion dollars in interest per year makes it a problem already.

 

[Billiejeens]

Trillion dollars in interest per year makes it a problem already.

Who do we owe most of it to?

 

[HikerGuy83]

Unable to understand simple data, tells me he doesn't care to understand anything I'm trying to explain to him.

I was thinking the very same thing about you.

Seems I just posted more data you want to ignore.

Doesn't know what the words "fiscal year" means

Uh....if you read my other thread, you'll see the fiscal 2026 started tracking October 2025. So, I think you are batting 1000%. Also...post 385 in this thread......

1.5 years before 160 billion in tariffs implemented were declared illegal and need to be refunded),

Trumps tariffs were implemented in April 2025, Which was 6 months into fiscal 2025. That's when the deficit numbers started to slow. This is a red herring on your part.

1.5 years before major BBB revenue cuts went into effect.

Again, meaningless to the argument.

Doesn't understand that baseline deficit for 2026 was projected to be lower BEFORE Trump got into office

Never said anything about 2026 except that it was tracking below 2025 which had come in 200 billion lower than what was projected. Look at the thread title and then look at the reported numbers at the time.

Proceeds to post laughable half-thoughts about "everyone", without being able to cite anything at all.

Not relevant to the argument.

If you want to go back through the numbers, and show me where they are wrong.....I'd be happy.....

On second thought....if you look back through this thread, it's already been discussed. You were part of it.

In fact, the more I think about it, I can't even remember why I am posting this.....

oh well.......

 

[task0778]

Who do we owe most of it to?

Does that really matter?

 

[80zephyr]

Who do we owe most of it to?

The interest on the national debt primarily goes to holders of U.S. Treasury securities, which include domestic and foreign investors, as well as various federal trust funds.

 

[Billiejeens]

Does that really matter?

Prolly

 

[AntonToo]

Trumps tariffs were implemented in April 2025, Which was 6 months into fiscal 2025. That's when the deficit numbers started to slow.

Yea, and A YEAR LATER THEY HAVE TO BE REFUNDED, so that's $160 billion miscounted in second half of FY25 first half of FY26

Do you NOW get why I say that 1.5 years later they were ruled illegal?

 

[AntonToo]

Again, meaningless to the argument

Just wow.

The argument is over Trump policy contributing to deficit...and you think that 4.7T trillion dollar deficit increase from Trump's BBB ($400-500 billion for 2025) is not relevant?

What the f is wrong with you?

 

[AntonToo]

View attachment 1247444

October 1, 2025 DOES NOT belong to "Fiscal 2025/2026" it belongs to Fiscal Year 2026 ONLY

And what is that post about? It's about what you believe Trump is responsible for - FY2026, not FY2025,

Which directly contradicts you now using FY2025 budget, which was partially under Biden, to make claims about Trump policy supposedly reducing deficit.

 

[task0778]

Prolly

Prolly not. You still gotta pay the interest to somebody, defaulting on your debt is a kinda bad thing. As I understand it, 75-80% of the debt is publicly owned; that includes debt held by individuals, businesses, banks, insurance companies, state and local governments, pension funds, mutual funds, foreign governments, foreign businesses and individuals, and the Federal Reserve. The rest is intragovernmental debt, primarily the SSA and Medicare programs, plus DoD and CS retirement funds. For these the income does not match the outgo, so the gov't borrows money to make those payments. That cannot be dismissed unless you want to defund those programs to the point where outgo does not exceed income. People want to blow it off but it ain't quite that easy; there are serious repercussions if that happens.

The bigger side of the debt is the public debt as mentioned above. The gov't has to keep borrowing money to pay the interest on the existing debt on a continual basis and every year the deficits add to the total debt. What happens when you can't find enough buyers for your new additional debt? You have to raise your interest rate. No big deal when that rate is pretty low, but it's growing higher as we speak. That's called inflation and it's a killer. Ten years ago that rate was 2.23% (2016), now it's 3.36% (2025) and rising.

So, I don't see how it matters who owns the debt. It's gotta be paid one way or another. By us, the taxpayers. It's either that or default.

 

[Billiejeens]

Prolly not. You still gotta pay the interest to somebody, defaulting on your debt is a kinda bad thing. As I understand it, 75-80% of the debt is publicly owned; that includes debt held by individuals, businesses, banks, insurance companies, state and local governments, pension funds, mutual funds, foreign governments, foreign businesses and individuals, and the Federal Reserve. The rest is intragovernmental debt, primarily the SSA and Medicare programs, plus DoD and CS retirement funds. For these the income does not match the outgo, so the gov't borrows money to make those payments. That cannot be dismissed unless you want to defund those programs to the point where outgo does not exceed income. People want to blow it off but it ain't quite that easy; there are serious repercussions if that happens.

The bigger side of the debt is the public debt as mentioned above. The gov't has to keep borrowing money to pay the interest on the existing debt on a continual basis and every year the deficits add to the total debt. What happens when you can't find enough buyers for your new additional debt? You have to raise your interest rate. No big deal when that rate is pretty low, but it's growing higher as we speak. That's called inflation and it's a killer. Ten years ago that rate was 2.23% (2016), now it's 3.36% (2025) and rising.

So, I don't see how it matters who owns the debt. It's gotta be paid one way or another. By us, the taxpayers. It's either that or default.

It's never going to be paid.

That ship has sailed

 

[task0778]

It's never going to be paid.

That ship has sailed

True, but we still gotta pay the interest on the existing debt and borrow new debt to keep the ball rolling. I don't think who we pay that interest to matters very much.

 

[HikerGuy83]

Prolly not. You still gotta pay the interest to somebody,

Yes you do.

And as it gets bigger the risk of default grows......so does the risk.....so your interest rate will be higher.

It's a death spiral.

Most think tanks say 10 to 15 years and we are beyond the PONR.

 

[HikerGuy83]

The bigger side of the debt is the public debt as mentioned above. The gov't has to keep borrowing money to pay the interest on the existing debt on a continual basis and every year the deficits add to the total debt. What happens when you can't find enough buyers for your new additional debt? You have to raise your interest rate. No big deal when that rate is pretty low, but it's growing higher as we speak. That's called inflation and it's a killer. Ten years ago that rate was 2.23% (2016), now it's 3.36% (2025) and rising.

Interest is up now because of Biden.

It should come down. It may our very last chance to catch the deficit and turn things around.

 

[task0778]

Interest is up now because of Biden.

It should come down. It may our very last chance to catch the deficit and turn things around.

Why do you think the debt interest rate will come down? The interest rate on government bonds or treasury securities is determined by market conditions, right? Which at the moment appear to be difficult to read.

 

[HikerGuy83]

Why do you think the debt interest rate will come down?

What I read is that during Biden's term, his inflationary activities pushed interest rates up.

I have not tracked actual interest costs, but what I read says they went up dramatically during this time.

Interest rates on everything are much higher and so what the government has to offer to attract money has to have a higher interest rate.

 

[task0778]

What I read is that during Biden's term, his inflationary activities pushed interest rates up.

I have not tracked actual interest costs, but what I read says they went up dramatically during this time.

Interest rates on everything are much higher and so what the government has to offer to attract money has to have a higher interest rate.

OK, maybe I am wrong but I believe you are conflating the interest rate to sell US Gov't debt securities to foreign and domestic investors, with the Fed prime rate that the Fed raises or drops to control inflation in the US. The 2 are not the same.

Some say that Biden's American Rescue Plan, enacted in March 2021, injected $1.9 trillion into the economy through direct payments, unemployment benefits and aid to state and local governments that added fuel to inflationary pressure. However, others point to lingering pandemic effects and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as larger contributors to global price instability. I recall inflation reached 9% at one point before falling back, and I believe interest rates did rise. But I have not read where that had anything to do with increases in the debt interest rate.

 

[Concerned American]

What I read is that during Biden's term, his inflationary activities pushed interest rates up.

I have not tracked actual interest costs, but what I read says they went up dramatically during this time.

Interest rates on everything are much higher and so what the government has to offer to attract money has to have a higher interest rate.

Best solution? Buy with cash. If you don't have the money, save until you do. Then you save 5-24% right off the top. I know this isn't realistic for young folks purchasing vehicles and homes, and in the case of homes--they generally appreciate, so borrowing is the only option. Everything else? Cash. I spent the better part of my life becoming liquid after some poor borrowing decisions. I accomplished that and I've never been more secure.

 

[HikerGuy83]

OK, maybe I am wrong but I believe you are conflating the interest rate to sell US Gov't debt securities to foreign and domestic investors, with the Fed prime rate that the Fed raises or drops to control inflation in the US. The 2 are not the same.

Some say that Biden's American Rescue Plan, enacted in March 2021, injected $1.9 trillion into the economy through direct payments, unemployment benefits and aid to state and local governments that added fuel to inflationary pressure. However, others point to lingering pandemic effects and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as larger contributors to global price instability. I recall inflation reached 9% at one point before falling back, and I believe interest rates did rise. But I have not read where that had anything to do with increases in the debt interest rate.

And if that last bar is anywhere near true, Trump better have a commensurate drop in deficit. That is almost 600 Billion. If he was clever, he could get close to a surplus.

This may be our last best chance.

Look at those "Bidenomics is working" interest costs.

 

[toobfreak]

In 2024 the deficit was 1.83 trillion.
AND NOBODY CARES (in government).
This is beyond reprehensible.

Yep, and look at what happened to DOGE--- democrats killed it. Sure, Trump spends money, but it money for stuff we need.

ITMT, hear any democrat worry about the deficit? All they care about is trying to defund DHS and ICE.

Gotta keep those illegal voters here to win elections.