2016 Election Prediction Thread

[Skylar]

Yes, it is possible, far more possible, Rubio or Paul than Cruz.

Rubio I see as a possibility. Lots on the right do not like him for his immigration policy but they will swallow him to avoid Bush. I think this will be similar to 2012 when the party was looking for anyone but Romney. Now it will be anyone but Bush. It will at least be interesting to see if it takes the same rout as last time and Bush takes the nomination. I don't see that as happening because there will be a better selection of candidates this time around. I mean really, who gave Bachmann a spot on the stage...

I suspect Rubio will be in play this election season. I don't see him making much progress personally toward the presidency. He lacks the name recognition, party backing, and experience to likely be a credible candidate. Obama lacked all these things. But I think we can agree his 2008 victory was improbable. Rubio is hamstrung by a fiercely conservative voting record. Which doesn't help outside the GOP primaries with a much more moderate electorate.

Rubio on the other hand would make an excellent VP pick for a GOP candidate that was from outside of Florida. Kasich, for example, could use Rubio to shore up both his support among Latinos and to help in Florida. Both hugely advantageous for a GOP candidate.

The GOP is also doing an excellent job in cultivating its AAA team, with plenty of future leaders in their pipeline. (They're doing this much better than democrats, that have traded unity in the face of GOP election wins for cultivation of new leaders....but that's another discussion). Rubio is one such future leader. And a VP slot would put him in an excellent position to win the presidency himself in 2024. As it resolves 3 of the 4 factors working against him, granting experience, name recognition and party backing.

And Rubio, unlike Cruz, has made major in roads with the Latino community. I'd argue his a viable member of that communities conservative political spectrum. Cruz isn't part of that community at all despite his father being Cuban. Rubio's connection to the Latino community could help him in the long term. And act as a method of the GOP bringing Latinos into the conservative fold.

I see that as unlikely, as the GOP's focus on minorities tends to be opportunistic and anecdotal. But its better than if they picked just another white guy.

Rubio is going to do better than most people think. He's telegenic, articulate, and acceptable to both conservatives and moderates. He's often Republicans' second or third choice.

Don't know if he will be the candidate, but don't count him out.

I haven't counted him out. My entire post opens with 'I suspect Rubio will be in play in this election season'. I've simply argued that he's far more likely to be VP candidate than a presidential one.

Rubio's voting record buries the needle in terms of extreme conservatism. I think he's sporting a 0.97 on the DW nominate scale (out of a possible 1.0). If he becomes a major contender for office, I suspect the dems will hammer him mercilessly with this. And that it will cost him ground with moderates.

I would agree that he is more likely to be a VP candidate.

A guy whom I used to work with went to high school with him, and is still friends with Rubio. I think he even dated his sister. Anyways, when he beat Crist for the nomination, we were out for lunch when a reporter from the New York Times called him, wanting to know about Rubio. I only tell you that story because my understanding from my friend is that despite his ideological track record, he's more flexible than what one might expect.

He's one of the few candidates I've run into where my instincts on them conflict with their voting record. My impression of Rubio is very much like what you've described; pragmatic, flexible. Essentially a conservative version of Obama in temperament, experience, approach.

But his voting record is so insanely conservative that I don't trust my instincts on this one.

 

[Synthaholic]

Rubio is hamstrung by a fiercely conservative voting record.

Rubio is hamstrung by his zero accomplishments (other than getting elected).

 

[WelfareQueen]

Another idiotic post by you. Somehow, according to you, the Dems won in 2012 due to voter fraud:

How in the world did they lose in 2014 when they were so good at supposed cheating just two years earlier? Did they forget how?

Shut the fuck up...you obviously have zero knowledge of politics.

More bullshit from Tiny, The Asian Fairy.
Dems won by voter fraud in key states among key inner city areas. With Obama off the ballot that was much harder. Plus people are on to them.
The rest of your post is the usual crap spewing.

Why would it be harder? The voters are still there, the inner cities are still there. As always your post makes no sense.

As for "People are on to them", when Hillary wins in 2016, I hope you were not planning on using that excuse since it would be impossible for those same "people" to be magically "off", wouldn't it?



No response?...no surprise.

Since Hillary isnt running that will be difficult.

Gee, wrong again....

Join the official campaign Join us Hillary for America

They are hoping that she won't run. There is no prospective nominee that can come close to her in the General.

You Dims are funny. Bush and Paul are beating the Hildabeast in recent polls. Pay fucking attention.

 

[WelfareQueen]

Rubio is hamstrung by a fiercely conservative voting record.

Rubio is hamstrung by his zero accomplishments (other than getting elected).

Well.....it worked for the Obummbler.

 

[Synthaholic]

Rubio is hamstrung by a fiercely conservative voting record.

Rubio is hamstrung by his zero accomplishments (other than getting elected).

Well.....it worked for the Obummbler.

False. Obama was a lawyer, and a community organizer.

What was Rubio?

 

[WelfareQueen]

Rubio is hamstrung by a fiercely conservative voting record.

Rubio is hamstrung by his zero accomplishments (other than getting elected).

Well.....it worked for the Obummbler.

False. Obama was a lawyer, and a community organizer.

What was Rubio?

A lawyer and speaker of the State House. Sorry....Rubio wins.

 

[Nyvin]

More bullshit from Tiny, The Asian Fairy.
Dems won by voter fraud in key states among key inner city areas. With Obama off the ballot that was much harder. Plus people are on to them.
The rest of your post is the usual crap spewing.

Why would it be harder? The voters are still there, the inner cities are still there. As always your post makes no sense.

As for "People are on to them", when Hillary wins in 2016, I hope you were not planning on using that excuse since it would be impossible for those same "people" to be magically "off", wouldn't it?



No response?...no surprise.

Since Hillary isnt running that will be difficult.

Gee, wrong again....

Join the official campaign Join us Hillary for America

They are hoping that she won't run. There is no prospective nominee that can come close to her in the General.

You Dims are funny. Bush and Paul are beating the Hildabeast in recent polls. Pay fucking attention.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election Bush vs. Clinton

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election Paul vs. Clinton

One virtual tie with Bush on a Fox News poll is all I see

 

[JimH52]

Why would it be harder? The voters are still there, the inner cities are still there. As always your post makes no sense.

As for "People are on to them", when Hillary wins in 2016, I hope you were not planning on using that excuse since it would be impossible for those same "people" to be magically "off", wouldn't it?



No response?...no surprise.

Since Hillary isnt running that will be difficult.

Gee, wrong again....

Join the official campaign Join us Hillary for America

They are hoping that she won't run. There is no prospective nominee that can come close to her in the General.

You Dims are funny. Bush and Paul are beating the Hildabeast in recent polls. Pay fucking attention.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election Bush vs. Clinton

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election Paul vs. Clinton

One virtual tie with Bush on a Fox News poll is all I see

Thet have a super secret, nearly invisible poll that they watch. The same one the Karl Rove used on election night 2012.

 

[WelfareQueen]

Why would it be harder? The voters are still there, the inner cities are still there. As always your post makes no sense.

As for "People are on to them", when Hillary wins in 2016, I hope you were not planning on using that excuse since it would be impossible for those same "people" to be magically "off", wouldn't it?



No response?...no surprise.

Since Hillary isnt running that will be difficult.

Gee, wrong again....

Join the official campaign Join us Hillary for America

They are hoping that she won't run. There is no prospective nominee that can come close to her in the General.

You Dims are funny. Bush and Paul are beating the Hildabeast in recent polls. Pay fucking attention.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election Bush vs. Clinton

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election Paul vs. Clinton

One virtual tie with Bush on a Fox News poll is all I see

True....although Hillary is losing in seven battleground States that Obama won including Florida, Ohio, Colorado and Virginia.

Rut-row.....


Kind of kills the fake narrative that Hillary is inevitable, doesn't?

 

[WelfareQueen]

Since Hillary isnt running that will be difficult.

Gee, wrong again....

Join the official campaign Join us Hillary for America

They are hoping that she won't run. There is no prospective nominee that can come close to her in the General.

You Dims are funny. Bush and Paul are beating the Hildabeast in recent polls. Pay fucking attention.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election Bush vs. Clinton

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election Paul vs. Clinton

One virtual tie with Bush on a Fox News poll is all I see

Thet have a super secret, nearly invisible poll that they watch. The same one the Karl Rove used on election night 2012.

Try again douchebag.


Fox Poll Hillary Clinton s Favorability Plummets 11 Points Among Independents Washington Free Beacon


A key quote:

"The survey, conducted on behalf of the conservative super-PAC American Crossroads, found an unnamed GOP candidate taking 51 percent support among voters in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio and Virginia.

Clinton takes only 41 percent support among voters in those states, according to the poll.

The survey found Clinton’s favorability rating deep underwater, with 40 percent reporting a positive view of the former secretary of State against 53 percent who said they view her negatively."

 

[Nyvin]

A survey can be managed to produce answers the source wants to produce, simply leading the participants into the opinion you want them to have with the previous questions. Further a survey produced by a "conservative super-PAC" is very little more than a paid advertisement, especially one from American Crossroads.

 

[JimH52]

Gee, wrong again....

Join the official campaign Join us Hillary for America

They are hoping that she won't run. There is no prospective nominee that can come close to her in the General.

You Dims are funny. Bush and Paul are beating the Hildabeast in recent polls. Pay fucking attention.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election Bush vs. Clinton

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election Paul vs. Clinton

One virtual tie with Bush on a Fox News poll is all I see

Thet have a super secret, nearly invisible poll that they watch. The same one the Karl Rove used on election night 2012.

Try again douchebag.


Fox Poll Hillary Clinton s Favorability Plummets 11 Points Among Independents Washington Free Beacon


A key quote:

"The survey, conducted on behalf of the conservative super-PAC American Crossroads, found an unnamed GOP candidate taking 51 percent support among voters in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio and Virginia.

Clinton takes only 41 percent support among voters in those states, according to the poll.

The survey found Clinton’s favorability rating deep underwater, with 40 percent reporting a positive view of the former secretary of State against 53 percent who said they view her negatively."

Free Beacon.......

 

[dcraelin]

A survey can be managed to produce answers the source wants to produce, simply leading the participants into the opinion you want them to have with the previous questions. Further a survey produced by a "conservative super-PAC" is very little more than a paid advertisement, especially one from American Crossroads.

yep polls are mostly a joke............Lie to the pollsters, they help the politicians lie to you.

 

[Toro]

She will win the independent vote
She will win the black vote
She will win the women's vote
She will win the Hispanic vote
She will win the vote of college educated individuals
She will win the vote of single men and women across all ethnic demographics

The debates wont' matter much since at this level, you're not debating the other person; you debate yourself (sophisticated people know this loser).

We'll make this post a keeper and dredge it back up on election night.

Please do.

Will do!

 

[JoeB131]

My predictions-

Hillary is the Dem Nominee, Bush is the GOP Nominee. Bush, however, will be pulled very far to the right by the GOP Clown Car.

Hillary easily beats Jeb by not only taking all the states Obama took in 2012, but MO, AR, LA, NC and AZ as well. Jeb even loses Florida.

The Democrats retake the Senate by picking up IL, WI, PA, NH, NC and in a big surprise, FL. At least one other safe GOP state comes into play because the Teabaggers nominate some fool who thinks the word Rape needs a qualifying adjective in front of it.

 

[Billy_Kinetta]

Predictions:

No more Clinton.
No more Bush.

 

[Toro]

If Bush is the nominee, he will handily beat Clinton in Florida. Rubio probably would also.

Bush won't be pulled to the right if he wins the nomination. He won't change his positions.

But I'm not convinced he's going to win the nomination.

Clinton is a poor campaigner. I think she will be President, but it's going to be closer than the partisan Left believes. There is a lot of arrogance about Clinton on the Left.

Statistikhengst Clinton won't win 400 or more electoral votes is the bet. I haven't seen your answer.

 

[Statistikhengst]

If Bush is the nominee, he will handily beat Clinton in Florida. Rubio probably would also.

Bush won't be pulled to the right if he wins the nomination. He won't change his positions.

But I'm not convinced he's going to win the nomination.

Clinton is a poor campaigner. I think she will be President, but it's going to be closer than the partisan Left believes. There is a lot of arrogance about Clinton on the Left.

Statistikhengst Clinton won't win 400 or more electoral votes is the bet. I haven't seen your answer.

Because her lead may even expand. I am trying my hardest to keep you from embarrassing yourself, Toro

 

[Statistikhengst]

My predictions-

Hillary is the Dem Nominee, Bush is the GOP Nominee. Bush, however, will be pulled very far to the right by the GOP Clown Car.

Hillary easily beats Jeb by not only taking all the states Obama took in 2012, but MO, AR, LA, NC and AZ as well. Jeb even loses Florida.

The Democrats retake the Senate by picking up IL, WI, PA, NH, NC and in a big surprise, FL. At least one other safe GOP state comes into play because the Teabaggers nominate some fool who thinks the word Rape needs a qualifying adjective in front of it.

So, you are predicting 383 EV, not far from where I am predicting. 332 + 51 = 383
And you are predicting that she will recapture three of the "Clinton 6" from 1992 and 1996, very similar to what I have been predicting.

Toro

 

[JoeB131]

So, you are predicting 383 EV, not far from where I am predicting. 332 + 51 = 383
And you are predicting that she will recapture three of the "Clinton 6" from 1992 and 1996., very similar to what I have been predicting.

I think Hillary will do very well for a good reason.

I don't see Bush picking up any of the votes the Weird Mormon Robot lost.

I do see HIllary picking up a lot of white women who wouldn't vote for Obama, but could vote for her.

If the Republicans were smart, they'd nominate Rubio. He could cut into the Hispanic vote in a way Romney couldn't.