Hoosier4Liberty
Libertarian Republican
- Oct 14, 2013
- 465
- 87
- 78
I keep hearing about the "death" of the GOP and how they're going to lose big in 2014.
But let's look at the Senate map.
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2014 Senate
Right now, we're at a 45/55 split between R/D in the Senate.
Even now, despite the fact that GOP's approval ratings are down right now (thanks to the liberal media's narrative of the shutdown being the Republican Party's fault), the GOP is projected to pick up at least 3 Senate seats in the states of West Virginia, Montana, and South Dakota. These states all voted solidly for Romney, especially West Virginia, a state in which every single county went for Mitt (even Walter Mondale, George McGovern, and Mike Dukakis could win a few counties in WV(Dukakis even carried the state); but not Obama!)
In addition, the 2 "toss-up" races in Alaska and Arkansas are both in deep-red states.
If the GOP approval ratings pick up, as they likely will given the Obamacare roll-out headlines, then these "toss-up" states would shift to the GOP column.
This would get us to a 50/50 split. Then, all we would have to do to take back the Senate is win a race in one of the following states: Louisiana(voted for Mitt by about 20 points), North Carolina(2 point Mitt win here), Iowa/Michigan (both voted for Obama but it was a single-digit margin, and the midterm election turnout is more GOP-friendly almost invariably).
It appears that the GOP is doing quite well. Assuming "toss-ups" mean that either party has a 50-50 chance of winning, then we would be expected to have 49 seats even when the GOP has supposedly hit "rock bottom" according to liberals.
I just don't get this hysteria about the death of the GOP. The maps just don't seem to support it.
But let's look at the Senate map.
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2014 Senate
Right now, we're at a 45/55 split between R/D in the Senate.
Even now, despite the fact that GOP's approval ratings are down right now (thanks to the liberal media's narrative of the shutdown being the Republican Party's fault), the GOP is projected to pick up at least 3 Senate seats in the states of West Virginia, Montana, and South Dakota. These states all voted solidly for Romney, especially West Virginia, a state in which every single county went for Mitt (even Walter Mondale, George McGovern, and Mike Dukakis could win a few counties in WV(Dukakis even carried the state); but not Obama!)
In addition, the 2 "toss-up" races in Alaska and Arkansas are both in deep-red states.
If the GOP approval ratings pick up, as they likely will given the Obamacare roll-out headlines, then these "toss-up" states would shift to the GOP column.
This would get us to a 50/50 split. Then, all we would have to do to take back the Senate is win a race in one of the following states: Louisiana(voted for Mitt by about 20 points), North Carolina(2 point Mitt win here), Iowa/Michigan (both voted for Obama but it was a single-digit margin, and the midterm election turnout is more GOP-friendly almost invariably).
It appears that the GOP is doing quite well. Assuming "toss-ups" mean that either party has a 50-50 chance of winning, then we would be expected to have 49 seats even when the GOP has supposedly hit "rock bottom" according to liberals.
I just don't get this hysteria about the death of the GOP. The maps just don't seem to support it.