2014 predictions

oldfart

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It is customary in many graduate departments to form a pool each year and see whose predictions come closest. I would be interested in whether or not there is enough interest to do so on this forum. I propose a January 31 deadline to get predictions in.

But what should we predict? I have my own list, but I would like to solicit ideas for five to eight indicators to predict. What say you?
 

Norman

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Just off the top of my head:

1) GDP
2) Unemployment
3) CPI
4) The amount tapered by the fed at the end of the year. (or monetary base)
5) Stock market
6) Gold price
7) Government debt
8) Best performing asset class

Maybe there should be something more creative there like position on heritage index, afterall this is a timewaster game so it should be fun, right?
 

editec

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1) GDP -- $16.5 Trillion

2) Unemployment - 6.5% (as reported, its a lie of course)

3) CPI - 2% inflation (another lie, but a consistent lie)

4) The amount tapered by the fed at the end of the year. (or monetary base) (M1? No idea)

5) Stock market feeble growth , I suspect

6) Gold price - feeble, it's going down. I think it is being manipulated downward

7) Government debt when does it not go up?

8) Best performing asset class REAL ESTATE (yeah hard to believe, isn't it?)
 

Statistikhengst

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Well, I am gonna give myself time to think about this and comb through some data, preferably over a nice cup of hot Chai Tea.

So, even if some or maybe even a majority of my predictions could end up being wrong :) :), at least there is some data behind them, for the one thing that no one can predict is a surprise like a huge natural disaster or a sudden war. And those things have an immediate, sometimes lasting, effect on our economy, as by extension, the world's economy.

I will be back BEFORE Jan 31! Promise :D

Thank you, [MENTION=21524]oldfart[/MENTION], for starting the thread.
 
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oldfart

oldfart

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Just off the top of my head:

1) GDP
2) Unemployment
3) CPI
4) The amount tapered by the fed at the end of the year. (or monetary base)
5) Stock market
6) Gold price
7) Government debt
8) Best performing asset class

Maybe there should be something more creative there like position on heritage index, afterall this is a timewaster game so it should be fun, right?
Some thoughts:

1. year-over-year change in real GDP instead of 1)
2. U-6 as well as the official rate
3. CPI is good
4. Not sure what a good measure is here
5. By all means! Which index?
6. How about spot price of gold, oil, wheat, and frozen pork bellies?
7. Publically held US government debt, by domestic and foreign, and fiscal year deficit
8. We could list six or eight asset class indexes and rank them

Also possible:

9. Employment to population ratio
10. Current account trade deficit

I need to check on when some statistics come out, like income distribution figures. Those should be a biggie in the election campaign.
 

Publius1787

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It is customary in many graduate departments to form a pool each year and see whose predictions come closest. I would be interested in whether or not there is enough interest to do so on this forum. I propose a January 31 deadline to get predictions in.

But what should we predict? I have my own list, but I would like to solicit ideas for five to eight indicators to predict. What say you?
We are in uncharted territory. This will take some time to assess. Some of these assessments are very funny though. Not necessarily because of the assessments but what they think they're assessing. How can CPI = Good be an assessment? We are talking about consumer price index correct?

Does anyone have an idea when the fed is going to start rolling back QE? Hold on to your butts when that happens!
 
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