2014 battle for control of the US Senate

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

I'm rooting for Orman, but I'm not too optimistic he'll pull it off. I still think Roberts will win.

 

[Statistikhengst]

I'm rooting for Orman, but I'm not too optimistic he'll pull it off. I still think Roberts will win.

Tee trinken und abwarten, Junge.

 

[Shanty]

Good for you, Henry.

RW, I am not so sure that Kansas can flip.

With the dem dropping out last week, it opens up the race

But they ruled he has to stay on the ballot.

For which I wrote a thread and some interesting observations. Kris Kobach may very well have done the Democratic Party a big favor by making a big deal out of this.

Kobach may have intensified problems for his own race to remain as Kansas Secretary of State. He's running neck and neck with his challenger, and this may make non-party aligned voters to opt to dump him.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Good for you, Henry.

RW, I am not so sure that Kansas can flip.

With the dem dropping out last week, it opens up the race

But they ruled he has to stay on the ballot.

For which I wrote a thread and some interesting observations. Kris Kobach may very well have done the Democratic Party a big favor by making a big deal out of this.

Kobach may have intensified problems for his own race to remain as Kansas Secretary of State. He's running neck and neck with his challenger, and this may make non-party aligned voters to opt to dump him.

Yepp. It could be that another birfer bites the dust.

 

[Shanty]

Sam Wang's aggregates show Democrats having a shot to hold the Senate.
Game Change Kansas Sam Wang Model Gives Dems 90 Chance Of Holding Senate

 

[ScienceRocks]

80% of all immigrants being naturalized yearly are non-white.
Asians voted 70+ democrat in 2012
Hispanics voted 70+ democrat in 2012
Blacks voted 90+ democrat in 2012

750,000 more every year.

The democrats can tap into this and give the republicans a surprise.

 

[Derideo_Te]

80% of all immigrants being naturalized yearly are non-white.
Asians voted 70+ democrat in 2012
Hispanics voted 70+ democrat in 2012
Blacks voted 90+ democrat in 2012

750,000 more every year.

The democrats can tap into this and give the republicans a surprise.

Hispanics are white!

 

[daws101]

80% of all immigrants being naturalized yearly are non-white.
Asians voted 70+ democrat in 2012
Hispanics voted 70+ democrat in 2012
Blacks voted 90+ democrat in 2012

750,000 more every year.

The democrats can tap into this and give the republicans a surprise.

Hispanics are white!

not if you're a republican

 

[the_human_being]

I suppose when you're loosing, all you have left are dreams of 2016. Sooooooooo Faaaarrrrr Away.

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

Orman polling at 37%, Roberts at 36%!

RealClearPolitics - Election 2014 - Kansas Senate - Roberts vs. Taylor vs. Orman

 

[Nyvin]

Orman polling at 37%, Roberts at 36%!

RealClearPolitics - Election 2014 - Kansas Senate - Roberts vs. Taylor vs. Orman

And what's weird about that poll is it shows Taylor still having 10% support, leaving one to wonder just how badly Roberts is really doing.

 

[Bush92]

Might I remind all Jayhawks, there is no such thing as an "I" on Capital Hill. This guy is an Obama "D." Don't shit yourself. It's six long years of this dolt.

 

[BreezeWood]

Might I remind all Jayhawks, there is no such thing as an "I" on Capital Hill. This guy is an Obama "D." Don't shit yourself. It's six long years of this dolt.

Incumbent republican Senator Pat Roberts is running for re-election to a fourth term ...


three terms were not enough - one has to wonder what would posses a person to need to run for a fourth term of office ? -

there was no one in their ranks to take his place ?


the Jayhawkers should do themselves a favour and give the leach a good kick in the butt.

.

 

[Samson]

Must be a slow polling month for Stat: where's the analysis of Data from a poll in B.F.E. That shows Hillary Clinton leading no less than 25 republican contenders in a race held in more than two years in the future?

Note that Stat has omitted most of his customary partisan blather regarding WHY it appears Republicans will take the Senate. If Dems were ahead in the 2014 race to control the Senate, then we'd no doubt be treated to a litany of absurd excuses beginning with Boooooooooosh.

Well, actually no.

The Clinton update is due at the end of September. I do this according to a plan.

And in my analysis of her polling I don't list WHY she is leading, I just report the averages.

I already challenged you to find even just one single posting of mine, just one, where I have blamed former Pres. Bush for anything during the Obama administration, and you apparently couldn't find one. Tsk, tsk.

You are able to read enough to troll, so I suspect you would already know this.

Oh, and I post less when I am on vacation. This is just fun for me.

I know you are totally anal retentive and may find that word "fun" difficult to understand, but do try.

If you seriously think anyone reads even a fraction of your partisan blitherings, then your delusional.

 

[BreezeWood]

just last week the Ds were in the plus column - the republicans have shifted the momentum completely to their favour and the generic Congressional vote predictably and reassuringly shows their results.

however it is only mid September, a peak like the one above will be hard to maintain for a month and a half especially when it is based on nothing more than hot air - at any rate there is time for the Democrats to reload and with the proper timing for them to peak when it counts the most.

.

 

[HenryBHough]

Hard for Democrats to improve their polling when their fearless leader insists on making an ass of Himself no live television.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Hard for Democrats to improve their polling when their fearless leader insists on making an ass of Himself no live television.

"no"?

 

[daws101]

Hard for Democrats to improve their polling when their fearless leader insists on making an ass of Himself no live television.

you must be mistaking obama for ted cruz

 

[daws101]

Hard for Democrats to improve their polling when their fearless leader insists on making an ass of Himself no live television.

"no"?

I saw that too. gave him a pass ..

 

[Statistikhengst]

So, today is September 16, 2014 and the November mid-term elections are exactly 7 weeks (42 days) away.

Some things have changed since the OP was written.

First, KS-SEN looks like it may become a GOP loss and an IND pickup.

Going down the list of battlegrounds, the four races moving toward the Democrats:

NC-SEN:

RealClearPolitics - Election 2014 - North Carolina Senate - Tillis vs. Hagan

Current aggregate: Hagan +3.7

When this OP was written on Aug 11, 2014, in NC, the aggregate on that day was: Tillis +1.3

So, Kay Hagan has moved the needle +5 in her direction since then.

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In the COL-SEN, a similar story:

RealClearPolitics - Election 2014 - Colorado Senate - Gardner vs. Udall

Current aggregate: Udall +3.7.

On August 11, 2014, when the OP was published, the aggregate showed: Udall +1.5.

So, Mark Udall has moved the needle 2.2 points more in his direction.

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MI-SEN:

RealClearPolitics - Election 2014 - Michigan Senate - Land vs. Peters

Current aggregate: Peters +5.2.

On August 11, 2014, as the OP was published, the aggregate was: Peters +4

So, Gary Peters has moved the needle 1.2 points farther in his direction.

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IA-SEN:

RealClearPolitics - Election 2014 - Iowa Senate - Ernst vs. Braley

Current aggregate: Braley +1.4

On August 11, 2014, as the OP was published, the aggregate was: Ernst +0.8.

So, Bruce Braley has moved the needle +2.2 points in his direction during that time.

Those were the four Senatorial races where the Democrats' chances have improved.

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Two races in no-man's land:​

AK-SEN:

RealClearPolitics - Election 2014 - Alaska Senate - Sullivan vs. Begich

Current aggregate: Sullivan +1.3

NOT in the statistic is the Harstadt poll that just came in, showing Begich +5 (45-40):

AK-Sen Harstad Research for Senate Majority PAC

With that poll in the mix, the aggregate would then be Begich +0.25.

On August 11, 2014, as the OP was published, an AK aggregate was not really possible, for the AK primary had not yet taken place. That being said, conventional wisdom was that in a race against Sullivan, it would be a dogfight, and see, it is.

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LA-SEN:

RealClearPolitics - 2014 Louisiana Senate Race

In Louisiana, we have a statistical mess, caused partially by LA state law:

Officially, the aggregate in a pure two-man race is: Cassidy +1.3

But Lousiana essentially does an open jungle primary for it's SEN-GE and that aggregate is: Landrieu +5.4.

BOTH of those values are very faulty. The latest 2-way data is 2 weeks old and the jungle primary data has a poll from the end of June, which is very, very cold coffee. There is no way in hell that that poll should be in the current mix.

Mary Landrieu has survived a number of razor-thin elections in her life, I just don't know if she will pull this one out.

On August 11, 2014, as the OP was published, the aggregate was: Cassidy +1.

So, Bill Cassidy has micro-moved the needle +0.3 in his direction. All way, way, way within the margin of error for both sides. FLIP A COIN.

We really need fresh polling from Louisiana to get a better picture here.

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Races where the GOP is prevailing:​

AR-SEN:

RealClearPolitics - Election 2014 - Arkansas Senate - Cotton vs. Pryor

Current aggregate: Cotton +2.5.

However, as was the case with Alaska, a more recent poll is missing:

Pryor Steel Lead New Statewide Poll Ross in Dead Heat Southern Progress

That poll shows Pryor +4 (46/42).

With that poll in the mix, the aggregate would be Cotton +1.5.

On August 11, 2014, as the OP was published the aggregate was: Cotton +3.

So, actually, the statistic has moved between +0.5 to +1.5 toward Mark Pryor. Either way, Cotton is still a nose ahead here.

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GA-SEN:

RealClearPolitics - Election 2014 - Georgia Senate - Perdue vs. Nunn

Aggregate: Perdue +3.

On August 11, 2014, as the OP was published, the aggregate was: Perdue +3.2
Technically, the needle has moved +0.2 toward Michelle Nunn, but that is micromovement. Perdue is building a lean but stubborn lead in the Peach State.

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KY-SEN:

RealClearPolitics - Election 2014 - Kentucky Senate - McConnell vs. Grimes

Current aggregate: McConnell +5.2.

However, as was the case in Alaska and Arkansas, at least one poll is missing here:

http://images.politico.com/global/2014/09/09/14mem908_ky_-_d11.html

showing Grimes +1.

The Mellmann Group is also a reputable pollster and had a +0.60 Republican mathematical bias in the 2012 election. It also nailed Obama's national margin.

I warned that, with time, RCP would deliberately not include some polls, but that being said, McConnell is posting some substantial leads from very well known pollsters, and I do not doubt their results.

On August 11, 2014, as the OP was published, the aggregate was: McConnell +2.5.

So, for now, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has doubled his lead over Grimes.

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The possible Independent barnburner:​

KS-SEN:

RealClearPolitics - Election 2014 - Kansas Senate - Roberts vs. Taylor vs. Orman

I included the RCP text in this screenshot, because I think it is important.

It is still too early to figure out an accurate aggregate for this race, but most likely, it will become Orman's to lose, putting an Independent from KS in the US-Senate.





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Odd man out:​

NH-SEN:

RealClearPolitics - Election 2014 - New Hampshire Senate - Brown vs. Shaheen

Current aggregate: Shaheen +3.5.

This is an EXCELLENT case study on a possible outlier and this one is especially interesting. All four of these polls were taken at about the same time. Two polls, one from a right-leaning pollster (Rasmussen) and one from a left-leaning pollster (CBS), both show Shaheen +6. The hometown pollster, if you will, WMUR (which has a good reputation but tends to the Right), shows Shaheen +2. Were it just those three polls, then the aggregate would be Shaheen +4.7. But the CNN poll shows a mathematical tie, 6 complete points off of two +6ers for Shaheen.

On August 11, 2014, as the OP was published, the aggregate was:

Shaheen +10.4.

So, Scott Brown has gained +7.1 toward his side in the last 5 weeks.



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Facit: not that much has changed since August 11th, 2014. The four senate seats that most were assuming would firm up for the Democrats are indeed firming up and the open senate seats in the South are leaning more Republican, making it easy for the GOP to pick up 6 seats, considering that it practically already has SD, MT and WV in it's pocket.

It's too early to tell, but the current signs are that the two senate seats where the Democrats have seen (and should still see) pick-up possibilities are currently moving toward the Republicans.

The curent polling shows no sign of a massive GOP wave, but it also shows no real enthusiasm for the Democrats, either.