So, in 6 days, we Americans will go to the polls and elect a new US-Congress. Actually, many of us have already voted. I sent in my absentee ballot 10 days ago.
Regardless of your political orientation, which is no one's business but your own, I encourage EVERYONE who is a US citizen to go vote. It is a right enumerated in the US-Constitution and I personally consider it to be a civic duty.
The time frame between 2 weeks before this election and 1 week before this election has seen a number of races tighten-up more rather than open-up. This already flys in the face of conventional wisdom and electoral polling statistics, which means that in many ways, the 2014 mid-terms will be a set of elections for the record-books, I suspect.
The real shift right now continues seen in Georgia, where Democrat Michelle Nunn is picking up steam and it really does look like a tied-up horserace. There are, for my way of thinking, four real horseraces:
Georgia (Perdue vs. Nunn),
Kansas (Roberts vs. Orman),
North Carolina (Tillis vs. Hagan) and
Iowa (Ernst vs. Braley)
I wrote two weeks ago that Gary Peters (D-MI) was going to leave the battlegrounds. His aggregate stood at
+9 last week which was well inside the comfort zone. This week, it now stands at
+11, so the decision to remove him from the battlegrounds was a correct decision. The RNC has also pulled money out of MI, which means they have given up on it.
In Kentucky, the DNC had pulled funds out of Kentucky and it looked like Mitch McConnell will be re-elected, but then newer polling convinced the DNC to switch course, probably all for naught.
Also, one week ago, I noted that usually around the -3 to -2 week period, pols, pollsters, pundits and the like often call it the break-away period, where one candidate starts to surge into a major lead. We are not seeing that, either.
This year is somehow just a little different that other mid-terms.
Here was the posting from eight days ago:
2014 battle for control of the US Senate Page 9 US Message Board - Political Discussion Forum
And here are the aggregates as of today, October 29, 2014:
DEMOCRATS LEADING:
Aggregate, NH:
August 11, 2014: Shaheen +10.4
September 16, 2014: Shaheen +3.5
September 22, 2014: Shaheen +5.0
October 2, 2014: Shaheen +4.0
October 7, 2014: Shaheen +4.6
October 15, 2014:
Shaheen +3.5
October 21, 2014:
Shaheen +2.6
October 29, 2014: Shaheen +2.2
The needle has moved 0.4 in Scott Brown's (R) direction, but Shaheen has lead in 5 of the last 6 polls, and they are all well within the 2-week standard time-frame for making realistic aggregate values. That being said, Shaheen has lost a lot of ground since August. This race could easily tip at the last minute, but for now, we are seeing a small but resilient lead for the incumbent Democrat. A disadvantage for Shaheen is that New Hampshire is one of 14 states in our Union that does NOT allow early voting, so she has had no way to "bank" some votes before election day. That being said, the last round of polling for New Hampshire, in 2012, was off to Right by about 3.4 points (Obama vs. Romney): see the bottom of this posting.
REPUBLICANS leading:
Aggregate, AK:
August 11, 2014: -no aggregate was possible-
September 16, 2014:
Sullivan +1.3
September 22, 2014:
Sullivan +1.3
October 2, 2014:
Sullivan +4.7
October 7, 2014:
Sullivan +4.7
October 15, 2014:
Sullivan +4.4
October 21, 2014:
Sullivan +4.4
October 29, 2014:
Sullivan +2.2
There has been new polling in Alaska (finally) and the needle has moved +2.2 points toward Begich (D-inc), a considerable shift and pretty much a mirror-image of the New Hampshire race. An aggregate +2.2 is well with the MoE, so were this figure to hold, these races could easily be coin-flips. In both cases, the underdog has made gains.
Aggregate, CO:
August 11, 2014: Udall +3.7
September 16, 2014: Udall +1.5
September 22, 2014: Udall +0.6
October 2, 2014: Gardner +1.5
October 7, 2014: Gardner +0.6
October 15, 2014: Gardner +1.4
October 21, 2014: Gardner +3.0
October 29, 2014: Gardner +3.3
The needle has moved +0.3 points in Gardner's direction. In the postings from October 15th and from October 7th, I reminded how very off polling was in Colorado and in Nevada in 2010, also in 2012. Reason: gross miscalculation of the Latino vote. But on paper, Gardner has the lead. +3.3 is still within the MoE.
Aggregate, KY:
August 11, 2014: McConnell +2.5
September 16, 2014: McConnell +5.2
September 22, 2014: McConnell +5.2
October 2, 2014: McConnell +5.3
October 7, 2014: McConnell +4.2
October 15, 2014: McConnell +3.0
October 21, 2014: McConnell +4.7
October 29, 2014: McConnell +4.4
The needle has moved +0.3 toward Grimes (D)- which is statistical noise, but this race has been at +3 to +5 for McConnell now for 6 weeks straight. He has a somewhat slim but very stable lead over his Democratic challenger. Now only that, McConnell has won in tight races before, he is a survivor. And he is winning in a ruby-red state that Mitt Romney carried by almost +23 point two years ago.
Aggregate, AR:
September 16, 2014: Cotton +2.5
September 22, 2014: Cotton +2.5
October 2, 2014: Cotton +3.6
October 7, 2014: Cotton +3.7
October 15, 2014: Cotton +4.4
October 21, 2014: Cotton +3.6
October 29, 2014: Cotton +5.0
The needle has jumped +1.4 toward Republican challenger Tom Cotton and +5 is definitely outside the MoE. If these numbers hold, then Cotton will easily defeat Pryor (D-inc) in a ruby-red state that Mitt Romney carried by almost 24 points two years ago.
Please notice the numeric relation between the current aggregates in both Arkansas and Kentucky vis-a-vis the 2012 electoral statistic: in both states, the Republican candidates for US-Senate are running ca. 19 points behind Romney's landslide margins from 2012. Both states are in the South and both states are part of the "Bible Belt".
Double aggregate, LA:
Jungle Primary, October 2, 2014: Landrieu +1.2
Jungle Primary, October 7, 2014: Landrieu +2.7
Jungle Primary, October 15, 2014: Landrieu +2.7
Jungle Primary, October 21, 2014: Landrieu +2.8
Jungle Primary, October 29, 2014: Landrieu +4.2
Two-"man" race, possible runoff, October 2, 2014: Cassidy +4.6
Two-"man" race, possible runoff, October 7, 2014: Cassidy +5.6
Two-"man" race, possible runoff, October 15, 2014: Cassidy +5.6
Two-"man" race, possible runoff, October 21, 2014: Cassidy +5.3
Two-"man" race, possible runoff, October 29, 2014: Cassidy +4.5
There has been an interesting change in this double aggregate. In the Jungle primary; the needle just moved +1.4 toward Landrieu (D-inc), definitely outside of the MoE. And the needle moved +0.8 toward her in the polling for a possible runoff. Only, third party candidate Maness is really holding well at an aggregate of 9 points. This means that Landrieu needs at least a +6 aggregate to have a chance of getting over 50% in the Jungle Primary This will very likely go into overtime. I did the mathematical extrapolation for this on October 7th.
New addition to the battlegrounds, which will leave the battlegrounds after today:
Aggregate:
October 21, 2014 (RCP): Rounds +9.8
actual aggregate: Rounds +3.5
October 29, 2014 (RCP): Rounds +12.0
The newer polling shows that Rounds is very likely to win in SD, after all. SD goes off the battleground list after today. The possibility of him losing in a three man race, with the opposition so split against him, is null.
THE REAL DOGFIGHTS - DOWN TO THE WIRE:
Aggregate, IA:
August 11, 2014: Ernst +0.8
September 16, 2014: Braley +1.4
September 22: Braley +0.1
October 2, 2014: Ernst +2.8
October 7, 2014: Ernst +1.9
October 15, 2014: Ernst +1.2
October 21, 2014: Ernst +2.5
October 29, 2014: Ernst +1.7
The needle has moved 0.8 points toward Braley (D), Ernst has lost ground since last week, with one poll showing an absolute tie one poll showing Braley ahead by a nose. If you remove all polls that are more than two weeks old (the two bottom polls), then the aggregate is: Ernst +1.6, practically the same. Iowa is living up to it's tradition of being a real battleground/tossup state: in large national waves for President, Iowa goes easily with the national winner (Clinton '92 and '96, Obama '08). In squeaker elections, it goes by a hair for the winner in the national popular vote (Gore '00, Bush '04) and in a moderate election win, it goes with a moderate value (Obama '12) for the winner. In presidential politics, you have to go back 26 years to find Iowa bucking the national trend.
In statewide politics, we have had less of a chance to see how "battlegroundy" (not a word, but should be 
) this state can be, due to long-term incumbents at the Senatorial level. A +1.7 for any candidate going into the final days of an election cycle can only mean that this may just as well be coin toss. And I suspect that directly before election day, this race will get tighter. Polls in Iowa close at 10 PM, EDT and I strongly suspect that this race will not be called until the next day. The disadvantage for Braley is that Iowa does early voting and no-excuse absentee voting and this means that lots of voters had a chance to already cast ballots when Ernst (R) was at a higher-water-mark.
Aggregate, NC:
August 11, 2014: Tillis +1.3
September 16, 2014: Hagan +3.7
September 22,2014: Hagan +5.0
October 2, 2014: Hagan +4.2
October 7, 2014: Hagan +3.7
October 15, 2014: Hagan +1.5
October 21, 2014: Hagan +1.2
October 29, 2014: Hagan +1.2
The needle has not budged since October 21 and there have now been three tied polls. Within five weeks time, Hagan's aggregate has shrunk from +5 (right at the outer edge of the true battleground zone) to a mere +1.2. The one factor in Hagan's favor is that she has maintained an aggregate lead now for 7 weeeks and North Carolina, like Iowa, does early voting and no-excuse absentee ballots. The polls in North Carolina close at 7:30 PM EDT on election day and I strongly suspect that this race will not be called until either well into the next morning or day.
Aggregate, GA:
August 11, 2014: Perdue +3.2
September 16, 2014: Perdue +3.0
September 22, 2014: Perdue +3.3
October 2, 2014: Perdue +3.4
October 7, 2014:
Perdue +3.1
October 15, 2014:
Perdue +2.7
October 21, 2014: Perdue +0.6
October 29, 2014: Perdue +0.5
The needle has moved 0.1 points toward Michelle Nunn (D), which is nothing more than statistical noise. This race has stood still over over week and every single one of those polls are new polls.
This makes this race one of the two closest aggregates at this time and the largest overall shift over last two weeks. The problem is, with a third party candidate likely to score at least 2 points or more, a +.5 to +1 win for either major candidate means that no one gets over 50%, which means that Georgia, like Louisiana, is very likely to go into overtime. The polls close in all of Georgia at 7 PM, EDT and I am pretty sure that this race will not be called for many hours, if not for a day. Georgia, like North Carolina and Iowa, has early voting and no excuse absentee ballots. And Georgia also has a problem with some 40,000 ballot applications that for some mysterious reason have still not been processed, which is in and of itself downright negligent, if not criminal. Those ballot applications, presumably all from legal US Citizens and citzens of the state of Georgia, come from heavily African-American voting areas, so legal challenges to voters who were outright suppressed by heavy-handed tactics on the part of some election officials in GA could muddy up this race even more.
Aggregate, KS:
September 22, 2014: Orman +1.2
October 2, 2014: Orman +5.3
October 7, 2014: Orman +5.3
October 15, 2014: mathematical tie
October 21, 2014: mathematical tie
October 29, 2014: Orman +0.9
The needle has move 0.9 toward Orman (I), putting him close to where he was 5 weeks ago, but nowhere near his high-water mark from October 7th.
One week ago, I noted this:
That poll, from a respected national pollster, has still not been included in the aggregate, which I find quite suspect. If you include the poll into the aggregate, then Orman's lead shrinks ever so slightly to +0.7. This is a pretty sure sign that the GOP base is coming back to Roberts (R). This question is: is that enough?
For KS, contrary to conventional wisdom, is NOT a GOP-majority state in terms of voter registration. It is a high GOP minority state with a substantial plurality against the D's, currently: R (44.11%), I (30.84%), D (24.33%), margin: R +19.78%.
Source.
This can only mean that for Orman to be doing this well, he is sweeping both the D and I vote and taking probably about 11% of the R vote at this time. I will do a better extrapolation of this later. Kansas does both early voting and no-excuse absentee voting, just like North Carolina, Iowa and Georgia. The polls for most all of Kansas close at 8 PM EDT, but because of at least one county that closes at 9 PM EDT, the state will not even be releasing votes until 9 PM EDT.
I cannot imagine any calls from any credible news sources for North Carolina, Iowa, Georgia or Kansas until well into the night, or even the next day.
In New Hampshire, however, the call may come earlier than people think. In 2012, the polling aggregate in NH for President Obama was: +2.50. In reality, Obama won by +5.58% and New Hampshire was called for the President at 10:03 PM EDT on election night on CNN and it was called even earlier for him on: CBS, ABC, NBC, MSNBC and FOX.
FACIT: we have seen races tighten up or stay exquisitely tight in: Alaska, New Hampshire, Iowa, North Carolina, Georgia and Kansas.
We have seen the races open or close very slightly in: Kentucky and Colorado.
We have seen the races open in a statistically important way in: Arkansas and Lousiana.
That being said, in the generic aggregate, the GOP lead SHRUNK since last week:
Generic aggregate, October 2, 2014: GOP +2.9
Generic aggregate, October 7, 2014: GOP +2.1
Generic aggregate, October 15, 2014: GOP +2.4
Generic aggregate, October 21, 2014: GOP +3.4
Generic aggregate, October 29, 2014: GOP +2.0
Shift: +1.4 toward the Democratic Party.
+2.0 is well within the MoE.
For comparision purposes, the generic aggregate from 2010, with the polls in just about the same time frame, was GOP +8.2.
So, the GOP is 6 full aggregate points BEHIND where it was in 2010 and that end aggregate was off by more than 3 points to the Right. So, the generic may be actually tied-up right now.
The generic ballot still does not show a GOP wave forming, but the critical point is that the GOP is winning where it needs to win, which is exactly in line with 160 years of US mid-term election history:
Congressional Elections compared to Presidential Terms 1855-present US Message Board - Political Discussion Forum
This is all going to be a matter of voter interest and GOTV, plain and simple. And I bet that the control of the Senate will go into overtime in both Georgia and Louisiana. And to make matters worse, according to Georgia's calendar:
2014 elections and voter registration calendar
federal runoffs for Georgia are not in December, they are in JANUARY. The runoff date for the Senatorial, if I have read this correctly, is Tuesday, January 5th, 2015, after the next session of Congress has already begun. That is just crazy. The runoff in Louisiana is on December 2nd, 2014.
Those are the current stats.
-Stat
