So, it's now 20 days before the 2014 Mid-Term elections across our great Union.
Many pols, pollsters, pundits and statisticians call the 3-week mark the "break-away point", where one candidate begins to take a decisive lead in a race that was already leaning his way.
I am seeing less signs of a "break-away point" this year. In fact, I am seeing it in only one race right now.
Here were the aggregates from Tuesday last week (October 7, 2014):
2014 battle for control of the US Senate Page 8 US Message Board - Political Discussion Forum
And now, today (October 15, 2014):
DEMOCRATS LEADING:
Aggregate, MI:
August 11, 2014: Peters +4.0
September 16, 2014: Peters +5.2
September 22, 2014: Peters +5.4
October 2, 2014:
Peters +6.0
October 7, 2014:
Peters +6.7
October 15, 2014:
Peters +9.0
The needle has moved +2.3 in Peters' direction over the last week. Last week, I wrote:
Of the competitive Senate races, this one is probably the safest for the Democrats at this time. Peters is heading into the safe zone.
And indeed, Peters is now in the safe zone. This race goes off the battlegrounds next week.
Aggregate, NH:
August 11, 2014: Shaheen +10.4
September 16, 2014: Shaheen +3.5
September 22, 2014: Shaheen +5.0
October 2, 2014: Shaheen +4.0
October 7, 2014: Shaheen +4.6
October 15, 2014:
Shaheen +3.5
The needle has moved 1.1 points in Scott Brown's (R) direction. The New England College poll is the first one in a while to show Brown slightly in the lead. That being said, incumbent Shaheen (D) still has an aggregate lead that is right at the cusp of the MoE (Margin of Error).
Aggregate, NC:
August 11, 2014:
Tillis +1.3
September 16, 2014:
Hagan +3.7
September 22,2014:
Hagan +5.0
October 2, 2014:
Hagan +4.2
October 7, 2014:
Hagan +3.7
October 15, 2014:
Hagan +1.5
The needle has moved 2.2 points toward Tillis (R) and this race is tightening up. Still, it has been two months since Tillis had an aggregate lead.
REPUBLICANS leading:
Aggregate, IA:
August 11, 2014: Ernst +0.8
September 16, 2014: Braley +1.4
September 22: Braley +0.1
October 2, 2014: Ernst +2.8
October 7, 2014: Ernst +1.9
October 15, 2014:
Ernst +1.2
Technically, the needle has moved 0.7 toward Braley (R), but Ernst still has an aggregate lead and lead in most recent polls. But an aggregate 1.2 is well within the MoE, anything can happen in this race. Neither candidate has "put it away".
Aggregate, CO:
August 11, 2014: Udall +3.7
September 16, 2014: Udall +1.5
September 22, 2014: Udall +0.6
October 2, 2014:
Gardner +1.5
October 7, 2014:
Gardner +0.6
October 15, 2014:
Gardner +1.4
This aggregate, like the one in Iowa, is well within the MoE - it can go either way. Only, the pollsters in 2008, 2010 and 2012 were massively off in CO, NV, NM, etc.... in states with heavy Latino populations, which I showed graphically on October 2nd and 7th. Technically, Gardner has the aggregate lead, but this could end up being the surprise of the night, just as Colorado and Nevada were the big surprises of the night in 2010. Wait and see.
Aggregate, AK:
August 11, 2014: -no aggregate was possible-
September 16, 2014: Sullivan +1.3
September 22, 2014: Sullivan +1.3
October 2, 2014:
Sullivan +4.7
October 7, 2014: Sullivan +4.7
October 15, 2014: Sullivan +4.4
Sullivan's (R) aggregate lead over incumbent Begich (D) has been in the +4 zone now for 3 weeks and holding steady. Unless Mark Begich has a trump card we are not seeing somewhere up his sleeve, if this races opens more, I suspect that it is then a done deal for Sullivan. Begich just barely won in 2008 in a squeaker in one of the reddest states in the nation, it is therefore no wonder that he is struggling in the mid-terms of a 2nd term Presidency where the opposition party generally makes substantial gains in congress. That being said, there were some polls that showed a Begich lead, RCP however has not reported them. Even so, Sullivan would still be in the lead, albeit somewhat narrower.
Aggregate, GA:
August 11, 2014: Perdue +3.2
September 16, 2014: Perdue +3.0
September 22, 2014: Perdue +3.3
October 2, 2014: Perdue +3.4
October 7, 2014:
Perdue +3.1
October 15, 2014:
Perdue +2.7
This is Perdue's (R) narrowest aggregate lead since August, and yet, he is still in the lead. To note: The landmark poll is from a Republican polling firm, not a Democratic firm and the SUSA poll only shows a 1 point lead for Perdue. So, the tie poll is not necessarily an outlier at all. The last three polls are well within the MoE and the other 3 (older polls) are just outside the MoE. This race is anything but done. No one should be uncorking the champagne yet. But since GA has a 50% hurdle and there is indeed a third party candidate on the ballot, this race could very well go into overtime, into December.
Aggregate, AR:
September 16, 2014: Cotton +2.5
September 22, 2014: Cotton +2.5
October 2, 2014: Cotton +3.6
October 7, 2014:
Cotton +3.7
October 15, 2014:
Cotton +4.4
The needle has moved 0.7 in Cotton's (R) direction. However, an ORA poll is missing from RCP's calculations:
http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/ADPOctober2014SurveyMemo.pdf
It shows Pryor +2 and was released on October 7. If you calculate that poll in the mix, then the aggregate would be
Cotton +3.3. And if you remove old polls and have just the three polls from October, including ORA, then the aggregate would be
Cotton +3.0. Either way, Cotton still has a lean but resilient lead. He is very likely to upset incumbent Mark Pryor (D).
Double aggregate, LA:
Jungle Primary, October 2, 2014:
Landrieu +1.2
Jungle Primary, October 7, 2014:
Landrieu +2.7
Jungle Primary, October 15, 2014:
Landrieu +2.7
Two-"man" race, possible runoff, October 2, 2014:
Cassidy +4.6
Two-"man" race, possible runoff, October 7, 2014:
Cassidy +5.6
Two-"man" race, possible runoff, October 15, 2014:
Cassidy +5.6
Absolutely no change over last week. This too could and will very likely go into overtime, with 3rd party candidate Maness at about 8%. I did the mathematical extrapolation for this on October 7th.
Aggregate, KY:
August 11, 2014: McConnell +2.5
September 16, 2014: McConnell +5.2
September 22, 2014: McConnell +5.2
October 2, 2014: McConnell +5.3
October 7, 2014: McConnell +4.2
October 15, 2014:
McConnell +3.0
The needle has moved +1.2 toward Grimes (D), but McConnell (R-inc) still has the aggregate lead. The DNC just pulled funds from this race, if I read the news correctly, which is a tellling sign. Grimes may make this race close and make a name for herself for the future, but McConnell is likely to retain his seat.
INDEPENDENT tied:
Aggregate, KS:
September 22, 2014: Orman +1.2
October 2, 2014: Orman +5.3
October 7, 2014:
Orman +5.3
October 15, 2014: mathematical tie
The needle has moved 5.3 points toward Roberts (R) since last week.
This is an interesting development, but may just be smoke and mirrors. Poll aggregates are like sinus curves, the open and close some. We have three polls showing Roberts ahead (with the largest lead, unsurprisingly, from the FOX poll) and two polls showing Orman ahead. The SUSA poll is probably the one pollster with absolutely no horse in this race, it is likely the best overall indicator.
Next week will show if this was just a sinus curve movement or if the GOP really is regaining ground in ruby Red Kansas. It should be noted that the Remington poll also shows Governor Brownback (R-inc), who has been considerably behind in every single other poll, ahead of his Democratic opponent. And this is a good moment to note that lesser known partisan pollsters for the Democrats are generally excluded from RCP's calculations, but this lesser known GOP pollster was included in the statistics as quickly as possible. Interesting, eh?
Mathematically, this is currently a tie. Polling history from 2008, 2010 and 2012 tells me that PPP and SUSA are by far the decidely more accurate pollsters, Orman (I) is very likely still ahead. Wait and see.
FACIT: movement in both directions since last week, but the likely GOP pickups have not changed and the two states that are real dog-fights have also not changed. The GOP is still on target to pick up at least 6 seats net and therefore get to 51 (majority) in the US Senate, albeit not necessarily on election night.
That being said, in the generic aggregate, the GOP lead has barely budged since last week:
Generic aggregate, October 2, 2014: GOP +2.9
Generic aggregate, October 7, 2014: GOP +2.1
Generic aggregate, October 15, 2014: GOP +2.4
The generic polling is also all over the place: Gallup (a completely discredited polling outfit in my eyes), which showed GOP +15 on the eve of the 2010 mid-terms and end up being off by 9.3 points, currently only shows GOP +1. And Rasmussen, which tends to be 4 points off to the Right in practically everything, shows a tie.
But NBC, which is accused of being in the tank for the Left, also shows GOP +1. It's also been two weeks since any generic poll showed a team-blue lead, so this GOP aggregate is likely to grow again by next week. However, at this point in time in 2010, the aggregate for the GOP was between +5 and +6.
Therefore, there are still no statistical signs of a wave, but plenty of evidence that the GOP is winning where it needs to, which is exactly in line with 160 years of US mid-term election history:
Congressional Elections compared to Presidential Terms 1855-present US Message Board - Political Discussion Forum
This is all going to be a matter of voter interest and GOTV, plain and simple.
I see a strong possibility that IA cannot be called on election night, that CO may be a real surprise for the pollsters, that SD, which was considered a shoo-in for the GOP, could suddenly become interesting. And I want to show you why:
Aggregate, SD:
October 1, 2014:
Rounds +14
October 15, 2014:
Rounds +9
But within a week or two, those polls from September fall out of the statistic and then the aggregate could be:
Rounds +3.5 to
Rounds +4.0. I fully expect that a bevy of polls may come out of South Dakota in the next week.
Therefore, as Michigan is obviously leaving the battlegrounds, it is very possible that South Dakota, first considered a guaranteed GOP pick-up, may
enter the battlegrounds. That being said, 3 or 4-man races can be very, very hard to poll.
The point of this is that on election night, the GOP may get to 49 or 50, but not to 51, because both Louisiana and Georgia are very likely to go into overtime.
I am not expecting a decisive call for the US Senate until the first week in December.
