World Wide Civil Unrest - World War III?

[SFC Ollie]

Update: according to the Albuquerque Journal this morning, the Obama Administration has now slapped sanctions on Lybia.

But then there is this newscast explaining how we are 'building relationships' in other troubled nations by recently funneling $770 million of U.S. taypayer monies into repairing mosques in various Middle East countries:

Mosque Makeovers With Your Tax Dollars - Video - WSB Atlanta

I'm curious whether even our strongest Obama supporters might have a problem with this?

But that's less than one Billion

But you know what Ollie, a thousand dollars is a lot of money to me. I would like to know that my elected leaders treat a thousand dollars taken from me in taxes with upmost respect and make sure I get my full money's worth when it is spent.

A million dollars is a fortune--enough for me to live in luxury the rest of my life. I won't pay but a fraction of that when all taxes I have paid in a lifetime are added together. And a billion is too big a number for me to even get my mind around.

If the federal government authorized even a few thousand to patch up U.S. synagogue and churches, the hue and cry of angry protest would be deafening.

I'm sorry, I was being facetious. I thought most people who know me would see that.
But we all have an off day....

Fact is that the left should be screaming bloody murder over the Government spending even a dime on any religion. But as long as it's not Christianity I guess it's OK.

 

[Foxfyre]

But that's less than one Billion

But you know what Ollie, a thousand dollars is a lot of money to me. I would like to know that my elected leaders treat a thousand dollars taken from me in taxes with upmost respect and make sure I get my full money's worth when it is spent.

A million dollars is a fortune--enough for me to live in luxury the rest of my life. I won't pay but a fraction of that when all taxes I have paid in a lifetime are added together. And a billion is too big a number for me to even get my mind around.

If the federal government authorized even a few thousand to patch up U.S. synagogue and churches, the hue and cry of angry protest would be deafening.

I'm sorry, I was being facetious. I thought most people who know me would see that.
But we all have an off day....

Fact is that the left should be screaming bloody murder over the Government spending even a dime on any religion. But as long as it's not Christianity I guess it's OK.

Oh I know you were being sarcastic and should have recognized that in my post.

But I am deadly serious. $770 million here, a billion there, and pretty soon you're talking about real money. (Apologies to Sen Everitt Dirkson).

If taxes were assessed per head so that every man, woman, and child in the country paid an equal amount, one billion dollars represents roughly $30 or so dollars for each of us or $120 for a family of four. But since only a little over half of Americans pay any federal income tax at all, double that to $480 for each family of four that pays taxes. If we're talking $1 trillion, that's $4,800 per family - $3 trillion $14,400 per family. And since the low end only pays a fraction of that, the comparative few who pay most of the taxes are getting hammered like in no other time in this country's history.

But if the country does manage to bankrupt itself so that it cannot pay the most fundamental contractual obligations, everybody gets hammered.

What in the hell are our leaders doing sending $770 million dollars that we don't have to Middle East countries for purposes that are essential to nobody's life, health, or general well being?

 

[Woyzeck]

Man, this year is turning out to be like 1848 more than World War 3.

 

[snjmom]

Man, this year is turning out to be like 1848 more than World War 3.

With Twitter and FB.

 

[Foxfyre]

Man, this year is turning out to be like 1848 more than World War 3.

Good analogy. There were only like four major countries on the other side of the pond that DIDN'T undergo a major revolution or revolution attempt that year?

 

[Woyzeck]

Man, this year is turning out to be like 1848 more than World War 3.

With Twitter and FB.

We live in interesting times.

 

[SFC Ollie]

Man, this year is turning out to be like 1848 more than World War 3.

With Twitter and FB.

We live in interesting times.

That is not always a good thing (especially if you live on Discworld)

 

[Samson]

And in my understanding of 20th Century World History, you would be correct.

In both Germany and Russia widespread unemployment, shortages of essential goods, an unstable and unreliable money supply coupled with unresponsive governments opened the door for Hitler and Lenin followed by Stalin. Similar internal chaos inside China did in the imperial dynasties leaving the path clear for a Mao Tse Tung.

Now we are seeing in country after country protests due to many of the same human problems with resulting pressure to weaken and topple unresponsive authoritarian governments.

This leaves a vacuum for a charismatic and opportunistic type to step up and seize the reins. If he is a good person, great. If not, we could have many Hitlers and Lenin/Stalins on our hands for the 21st Century experience.

"Now we are seeing in country after country protests?"

Frankly, I liken the ME protests to the USA, 1969-1974.

LBJ refused to run for office, Nixon resigned, and the social fabric of the USA was ripped apart, but it didn't cause WW III.

There was no serious effort, except for a few nuts, to overthrow the existing government during the worst of the riots back then though. Those protesters were protesting the 'establishment' or protesting the war or some other issue. But the U.S. Constitution is strong with enough people who understand what it is supposed to accomplish that a few war protestors or college numbnuts were no threat to the stability of the USA. Our system of government provides checks and balances and the rights of the people are not dramatically affected by who is at the helm and any changes at the top are accomplished in an orderly and lawful manner. Theory and policy will change from administration to administration but only in a limited manner. The lifes and fortunes of the people are generally not dramatically altered according to who is in the White House or Congress.

But in Iran they are demanding that the leadership step down. In Egypt they were demanding that the leadership step down. In Tunisia they were demanding the leadership step down. In Lybia they are demanding that the leadership step down. And if the Saudi and Jordan and Morroco monarchies are unable to cool the fires, it is likely the mobs will be demanding that the leadership be removed. In each case there is no process for an orderly transfer of power and the situation is ripe for a worse devil than the one they know to seize power.

I admit that the fact that Nixon resigned and LBJ declined to run were results of protests over US policy that weren't necessarily EXACTLY like Egypt or Libya. Obviously there's a huge difference in the change of power: however, I believe the results will be the same.

As the USA underwent fundamental social changes in the late 60's and early 70's, so will the middle east during the next decade. Furthermore, there is no reson to believe these internal societal changes won't result in a BETTER, "devil than the one they know."

 

[Foxfyre]

"Now we are seeing in country after country protests?"

Frankly, I liken the ME protests to the USA, 1969-1974.

LBJ refused to run for office, Nixon resigned, and the social fabric of the USA was ripped apart, but it didn't cause WW III.

There was no serious effort, except for a few nuts, to overthrow the existing government during the worst of the riots back then though. Those protesters were protesting the 'establishment' or protesting the war or some other issue. But the U.S. Constitution is strong with enough people who understand what it is supposed to accomplish that a few war protestors or college numbnuts were no threat to the stability of the USA. Our system of government provides checks and balances and the rights of the people are not dramatically affected by who is at the helm and any changes at the top are accomplished in an orderly and lawful manner. Theory and policy will change from administration to administration but only in a limited manner. The lifes and fortunes of the people are generally not dramatically altered according to who is in the White House or Congress.

But in Iran they are demanding that the leadership step down. In Egypt they were demanding that the leadership step down. In Tunisia they were demanding the leadership step down. In Lybia they are demanding that the leadership step down. And if the Saudi and Jordan and Morroco monarchies are unable to cool the fires, it is likely the mobs will be demanding that the leadership be removed. In each case there is no process for an orderly transfer of power and the situation is ripe for a worse devil than the one they know to seize power.

I admit that the fact that Nixon resigned and LBJ declined to run were results of protests over US policy that weren't necessarily EXACTLY like Egypt or Libya. Obviously there's a huge difference in the change of power: however, I believe the results will be the same.

As the USA underwent fundamental social changes in the late 60's and early 70's, so will the middle east during the next decade. Furthermore, there is no reson to believe these internal societal changes won't result in a BETTER, "devil than the one they know."

I wish I could share your optimism and hopefulness my friend. But alas, I think history doesn't support it all that well.

Where human/unalienable rights are acknowledged and respected, the nations seem to get through trials and tribulations in pretty good shape or at least they put themselves back together effectively.

Otherwise the pattern has been pretty grim.

Nicholas II replaced by Lenin and then Stalin in Russia.

King Victor Emmanuel replaced by Mussolini in Italy.

von Schleicher, von Papen, and Bruening in rapid succession replaced by Hitler in Germany.

Arafat replaced by Hamas and Hezbollah in Palestine.

Chiang Kaishek replaced by Chairman Mao in China.

Batista replaced by Castro in Cuba.

The Shah replaced by Ayatollah Khoemini and then in rapid succession Rafsanjani, Khatami and current president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in Iran.​

I haven't analyzed it a great deal, but I believe in every country that has succeeded in something approximating a democracy, visionary leaders put together a concept of a working government and THEN carried out the revolution to overthrow a monarchy or dictatorship or whatever.

Almost certainly in Saudi Arabia, Lybia, Tunisia, Egypt, Iran, and Jordan there is no such leadership doing that. So if the monarch or dictator is taken down, it leaves a huge vacuum which history has shown us is very dangerous.

 

[Ropey]

So if the monarch or dictator is taken down, it leaves a huge vacuum which history has shown us is very dangerous.

So now we wait to see if it is of the people. If it isn't, then we know. It's not hard to tell as true Democratic infrastructure can not easily be faked at the fundamental level.

Can the ruling power be voted out in an entirety by the people? That's the test and proof of a Democracy.

Look at Hamas. Within one period of voting, they performed a coup on Fatah's presidency. They lost the coup and ran to Gaza where they began to throw the Fatah supporters out the windows and roofs and shooting their leaders.

The proof of a Democracy isn't voting them in although that is a facet.

The power of a Democracy is in "Voting the Bums Out"! Voting Hamas in was easy. There has yet to be a vote since then and coup attempts on other governmental departments?

No, that's out. Right out. So, I wait and see.

 

[hipeter924]

So if the monarch or dictator is taken down, it leaves a huge vacuum which history has shown us is very dangerous.

So now we wait to see if it is of the people. If it isn't, then we know. It's not hard to tell as true Democratic infrastructure can not easily be faked at the fundamental level.

Can the ruling power be voted out in an entirety by the people? That's the test and proof of a Democracy.

Look at Hamas. Within one period of voting, they performed a coup on Fatah's presidency. They lost the coup and ran to Gaza where they began to throw the Fatah supporters out the windows and roofs and shooting their leaders.

The proof of a Democracy isn't voting them in although that is a facet.

The power of a Democracy is in "Voting the Bums Out"! Voting Hamas in was easy. There has yet to be a vote since then and coup attempts on other governmental departments?

No, that's out. Right out. So, I wait and see.

I am getting the signs I am right about Egypt, democracy in line with you guessed it 'islamic law' is going to be thing there and perhaps all the countries under revolt in the middle east want an Iraq styled democracy.

This is tolerable and amusing in the sense that many left wingers condemn the 95% Muslim country for passing a constitution which contains Islamic law on a democratic basis as a 'Buuuusssh' thing and 'imperialist nation building', truth is that Iraq styled democracy is pretty much what the Muslim and Arab people as a whole want.

*sigh*

And the left wing media report "America and the European Union" and so forth should help Libya and revolutions, while condemning them for helping/sparking democratic revolution in the same article....let me think...continuity error.

Let's remember the perfect 'democracy' in Gaza:

 

[Samson]

I wish I could share your optimism and hopefulness my friend. But alas, I think history doesn't support it all that well.

Where human/unalienable rights are acknowledged and respected, the nations seem to get through trials and tribulations in pretty good shape or at least they put themselves back together effectively.

Otherwise the pattern has been pretty grim.

Your Glass-is-half-empty examples are not the realistic "pattern."

Nicholas II replaced by Lenin and then Stalin in Russia....Then the USSR fell apart without destroying itself, or anyone around it.
King Victor Emmanuel replaced by Mussolini in Italy......Then the Italians killed Mussolini and became a democracy
von Schleicher, von Papen, and Bruening in rapid succession replaced by Hitler in Germany......Then Hitler committed suicide, and Germany once again returned to democracy
Arafat replaced by Hamas and Hezbollah in Palestine.....what is "Palestine?"
Chiang Kaishek replaced by Chairman Mao in China.....and the Chinese have become an important trade partner with the USA
Batista replaced by Castro in Cuba......and Cuba threatens no one today
The Shah replaced by Ayatollah Khoemini and then in rapid succession Rafsanjani, Khatami and current president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in Iran.....yes, and as you've said, he probably won't last long.

 

[Foxfyre]

I wish I could share your optimism and hopefulness my friend. But alas, I think history doesn't support it all that well.

Where human/unalienable rights are acknowledged and respected, the nations seem to get through trials and tribulations in pretty good shape or at least they put themselves back together effectively.

Otherwise the pattern has been pretty grim.

Your Glass-is-half-empty examples are not the realistic "pattern."

Nicholas II replaced by Lenin and then Stalin in Russia....Then the USSR fell apart without destroying itself, or anyone around it.
King Victor Emmanuel replaced by Mussolini in Italy......Then the Italians killed Mussolini and became a democracy
von Schleicher, von Papen, and Bruening in rapid succession replaced by Hitler in Germany......Then Hitler committed suicide, and Germany once again returned to democracy
Arafat replaced by Hamas and Hezbollah in Palestine.....what is "Palestine?"
Chiang Kaishek replaced by Chairman Mao in China.....and the Chinese have become an important trade partner with the USA
Batista replaced by Castro in Cuba......and Cuba threatens no one today
The Shah replaced by Ayatollah Khoemini and then in rapid succession Rafsanjani, Khatami and current president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in Iran.....yes, and as you've said, he probably won't last long.

So you're assuming these nations had to go through the years of the worst kind of leadership in order to get to a better place?

I'm sorry, but I think the tens of millions piled on top of tens of more millions in dead bodies is too high a price to pay. And NONE of those corrupt leaders willingly relinquished power but did so only under pressure from kinder and gentler nations.

 

[Samson]

I wish I could share your optimism and hopefulness my friend. But alas, I think history doesn't support it all that well.

Where human/unalienable rights are acknowledged and respected, the nations seem to get through trials and tribulations in pretty good shape or at least they put themselves back together effectively.

Otherwise the pattern has been pretty grim.

Your Glass-is-half-empty examples are not the realistic "pattern."

Nicholas II replaced by Lenin and then Stalin in Russia....Then the USSR fell apart without destroying itself, or anyone around it.
King Victor Emmanuel replaced by Mussolini in Italy......Then the Italians killed Mussolini and became a democracy
von Schleicher, von Papen, and Bruening in rapid succession replaced by Hitler in Germany......Then Hitler committed suicide, and Germany once again returned to democracy
Arafat replaced by Hamas and Hezbollah in Palestine.....what is "Palestine?"
Chiang Kaishek replaced by Chairman Mao in China.....and the Chinese have become an important trade partner with the USA
Batista replaced by Castro in Cuba......and Cuba threatens no one today
The Shah replaced by Ayatollah Khoemini and then in rapid succession Rafsanjani, Khatami and current president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in Iran.....yes, and as you've said, he probably won't last long.

So you're assuming these nations had to go through the years of the worst kind of leadership in order to get to a better place?

I'm sorry, but I think the tens of millions piled on top of tens of more millions in dead bodies is too high a price to pay. And NONE of those corrupt leaders willingly relinquished power but did so only under pressure from kinder and gentler nations.

You gotta break an egg to make an omelette

 

[Ropey]

You gotta break an egg to make an omelette

Indeed. Births are painful for both mother and child. Sometimes to the death of one or both.

 

[Samson]

You gotta break an egg to make an omelette

Indeed. Births are painful for both mother and child. Sometimes to the death of one or both.

Sometimes is the critical word = Not Very Often.

 

[Ropey]

I wish I could share your optimism and hopefulness my friend. But alas, I think history doesn't support it all that well.

Where human/unalienable rights are acknowledged and respected, the nations seem to get through trials and tribulations in pretty good shape or at least they put themselves back together effectively.

Otherwise the pattern has been pretty grim.

Your Glass-is-half-empty examples are not the realistic "pattern."

Nicholas II replaced by Lenin and then Stalin in Russia....Then the USSR fell apart without destroying itself, or anyone around it.
King Victor Emmanuel replaced by Mussolini in Italy......Then the Italians killed Mussolini and became a democracy
von Schleicher, von Papen, and Bruening in rapid succession replaced by Hitler in Germany......Then Hitler committed suicide, and Germany once again returned to democracy
Arafat replaced by Hamas and Hezbollah in Palestine.....what is "Palestine?"
Chiang Kaishek replaced by Chairman Mao in China.....and the Chinese have become an important trade partner with the USA
Batista replaced by Castro in Cuba......and Cuba threatens no one today
The Shah replaced by Ayatollah Khoemini and then in rapid succession Rafsanjani, Khatami and current president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in Iran.....yes, and as you've said, he probably won't last long.

I had not expected Barak Hussein Obama to win the US Presidency. I had thought it would have been something had Hilary won the Democratic Convention and McCain was who I had expected to win.

History showed clearly Older white guy followed by older white guy.

Young Black fast talker?

From left field.

So, who knows. I see that the Egyptian street wants the border between Israel and Gaza opened but nothing yet about the boarder between Egypt and Gaza.

Interesting times indeed.

You gotta break an egg to make an omelette

Indeed. Births are painful for both mother and child. Sometimes to the death of one or both.

Sometimes is the critical word = Not Very Often.

That depends on the environment for birthing does it not?

 

[Samson]

I wish I could share your optimism and hopefulness my friend. But alas, I think history doesn't support it all that well.

Where human/unalienable rights are acknowledged and respected, the nations seem to get through trials and tribulations in pretty good shape or at least they put themselves back together effectively.

Otherwise the pattern has been pretty grim.

Your Glass-is-half-empty examples are not the realistic "pattern."

Nicholas II replaced by Lenin and then Stalin in Russia....Then the USSR fell apart without destroying itself, or anyone around it.
King Victor Emmanuel replaced by Mussolini in Italy......Then the Italians killed Mussolini and became a democracy
von Schleicher, von Papen, and Bruening in rapid succession replaced by Hitler in Germany......Then Hitler committed suicide, and Germany once again returned to democracy
Arafat replaced by Hamas and Hezbollah in Palestine.....what is "Palestine?"
Chiang Kaishek replaced by Chairman Mao in China.....and the Chinese have become an important trade partner with the USA
Batista replaced by Castro in Cuba......and Cuba threatens no one today
The Shah replaced by Ayatollah Khoemini and then in rapid succession Rafsanjani, Khatami and current president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in Iran.....yes, and as you've said, he probably won't last long.

I had not expected Barak Hussein Obama to win the US Presidency. I had thought it would have been something had Hilary won the Democratic Convention and McCain was who I had expected to win.

History showed clearly Older white guy followed by older white guy.

Young Black fast talker?

From left field.

So, who knows. I see that the Egyptian street wants the border between Israel and Gaza opened but nothing yet about the boarder between Egypt and Gaza.

Interesting times indeed.

Indeed. Births are painful for both mother and child. Sometimes to the death of one or both.

Sometimes is the critical word = Not Very Often.

That depends on the environment for birthing does it not?

I would suppose that with almost 7 Billion Humans on the planet, the environment on Earth has been hospitable for Human Reproduction.

 

[Ropey]

Your Glass-is-half-empty examples are not the realistic "pattern."

Nicholas II replaced by Lenin and then Stalin in Russia....Then the USSR fell apart without destroying itself, or anyone around it.
King Victor Emmanuel replaced by Mussolini in Italy......Then the Italians killed Mussolini and became a democracy
von Schleicher, von Papen, and Bruening in rapid succession replaced by Hitler in Germany......Then Hitler committed suicide, and Germany once again returned to democracy
Arafat replaced by Hamas and Hezbollah in Palestine.....what is "Palestine?"
Chiang Kaishek replaced by Chairman Mao in China.....and the Chinese have become an important trade partner with the USA
Batista replaced by Castro in Cuba......and Cuba threatens no one today
The Shah replaced by Ayatollah Khoemini and then in rapid succession Rafsanjani, Khatami and current president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in Iran.....yes, and as you've said, he probably won't last long.

I had not expected Barak Hussein Obama to win the US Presidency. I had thought it would have been something had Hilary won the Democratic Convention and McCain was who I had expected to win.

History showed clearly Older white guy followed by older white guy.

Young Black fast talker?

From left field.

So, who knows. I see that the Egyptian street wants the border between Israel and Gaza opened but nothing yet about the boarder between Egypt and Gaza.

Interesting times indeed.

Sometimes is the critical word = Not Very Often.

That depends on the environment for birthing does it not?

I would suppose that with almost 7 Billion Humans on the planet, the environment on Earth has been hospitable for Human Reproduction.

Had the environment not been hospitable? Are the environments hospitable for Islamic Democracy? You tell me.

I don't know what's going to happen.

 

[Samson]

I had not expected Barak Hussein Obama to win the US Presidency. I had thought it would have been something had Hilary won the Democratic Convention and McCain was who I had expected to win.

History showed clearly Older white guy followed by older white guy.

Young Black fast talker?

From left field.

So, who knows. I see that the Egyptian street wants the border between Israel and Gaza opened but nothing yet about the boarder between Egypt and Gaza.

Interesting times indeed.



That depends on the environment for birthing does it not?

I would suppose that with almost 7 Billion Humans on the planet, the environment on Earth has been hospitable for Human Reproduction.

Had the environment not been hospitable? Are the environments hospitable for Islamic Democracy? You tell me.

Why not?

It would not be the first time Democracy succeeded Despotism.