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I suspect you are correct.Russia would have collapsed without U.S. aid: Russia's Life-Saver: Lend-Lease Aid to the U.S.S.R. in World War II (Book Review)
Without US support Russia would have fallen to Hitler. The Nazis would have seized the oil reserves in the Caucasus on their way to linking up with Japan, possibly in India. The US supplied much needed hardware and foodstuffs while the Russians supplied twenty million dead civilian and soldiers. Both allies contributed to Germany's defeat.