Why Obama Loses: By The Numbers

[Plasmaball]

" he will loose"

He didn't say that, he said it would be closer.

Stop lying, and last I saw obama is up in swing states.

1. You should know by now that I never lie.

2. Why is it always my job to attempt to bring the lesser among us up to a semblance of literacy???

OK....I suppose it is based on the concept that 'a conservative is never so tall as when she stoops to lift up a Liberal....'

I'll try...but based on your innate intelligence, the result is doubtful.


From the OP:

"2. The President now admits, albeit inadvertently, that he will lose this time. He tells his supporters:
"This election is going to be even closer than the last one," Obama told Iowa Democrats..."
Obama warns backers: This will be a close election

"...albeit inadvertently..."

al·be·it/ôlˈbē-it/
Conjunction:
Although: "he was making progress, albeit rather slowly".

in·ad·vert·ent/ˌinədˈvərtnt/
Adjective:
Not resulting from or achieved through deliberate planning; unintentional.
(of a mistake) Made through lack of care; negligent.


So...the phrase "...albeit inadvertently..." means he didn't mean to, but accidently did it...
Beginning to see why no one ever copied off your paper?



3. In English writing, quotation marks or inverted commas (informally referred to as quotes or speech marks)[1] are punctuation marks surrounding a quotation, direct speech,...
Quotation mark - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


Now, notice that quotation marks are found here: "This election is going to be even closer than the last one,"

See....that is telling you what Obama actually said.

Quotation marks, again: "You are a fool."
That was me who said that.
Don't mistake it for all the other folks who tell you that.

Wow this is a lot of bullshit just to prop up you implying something that is not there.
Forget rhet you are a female trip....

 

[frazzledgear]

" he will loose"

He didn't say that, he said it would be closer.

Stop lying, and last I saw obama is up in swing states.

Got that right, Obama is still leading in the polls, has a commanding lead in the electoral college, and is leading virtually every swing state.

Give it up right wingers, Willard isn't going to win.

Your mistake following the polls is that it shows Obama with less than 50% except in a handful of states even as it shows Obama and Romney within a few points of each other or even with Obama several points ahead of Romney -but still with less than 50%. Do you understand what that means or do you need to pretend it means things are going his way here? During July when Bush was running for re-election polls showed Bush leading Kerry in California 46-38% or so and the rest undecided. Do you seriously think it meant Bush was doing well in California or that he ever had a shot in hell of winning the state? Of course not -and in fact that poll only confirmed what he already knew -he couldn't win it. What that poll REALLY showed was Bush was going to lose California to Kerry -and lose at the very minimum by the same percentage of support he had at that moment and no higher -lose to Kerry 54-46 and probably even worse than that. And in fact Bush only managed to get something like 43% in California that time. If the White House were open, THEN it would indicate Obama really was ahead and in that situation undecideds do tend to divide close to the same percentage as those who already made their choice. But not true at all when an incumbent is running for re-election.

This is the dirty little secret the liberal media and even pollsters don't like to talk about -but if the incumbent cannot get at least 50% in any given state by now, short of a major event that would be a total game changer, that incumbent is highly likely going to lose that state. Undecideds don't break for the incumbent and they don't divide in the same percentage as those who already made their decision. There is a false assumption by many that if the poll shows 48-45 in favor of the incumbent, when it comes time to vote 48% of the undecideds will go with the incumbent as well -and it is dead wrong. Undecideds break overwhelmingly for the challenger. Pollsters know this -but most importantly, so do the candidates. It's why everyone is aware of the constant tone of total desperation in the Obama campaign that doesn't exist at all in the Romney one.

It takes more than 50% to win a state and Obama only has that in a few states. The incumbent is the known quantity and undecideds don't break for the incumbent. Those polls showing Obama leading Romney in some state 47-44% or something? Means Obama is LOSING in that state by 53%. It actually doesn't matter much what the challenger has at this time -ONLY the incumbent. And Obama is in deep trouble. So all those polls showing Obama and Romney both polling around 47% each in some state and they call it a "toss up"? Not really -it means Obama is LOSING in that state by 53%. If the incumbent can't get 50% in any given state by NOW -the odds are not in his favor that he ever will.

The challenger's numbers at this point are much more divorced from his true standing in any given state while it is very strongly correlated to what the final result will be for the incumbent -true regardless of party affiliation. The challenger's numbers typically don't become more correlated to his true standing in a state until after their party's convention when he gets a boost from getting the official nomination and people start tuning into the election more closely in the remaining weeks. It doesn't mean Romney has a lock and no one can take it for granted - but he is the one who is in far better shape. Even while people like you seem to think a sitting President who can't even get 50% support in all but a handful of states is somehow the one in the best shape here. The fact Romney significantly out raised Obama two months in a row only confirms what the polls REALLY mean.

 

[auditor0007]

1. Barack Obama won, in 2008, by 7% of the vote.

2. The President now admits, albeit inadvertently, that he will lose this time. He tells his supporters:
"This election is going to be even closer than the last one," Obama told Iowa Democrats..."
Obama warns backers: This will be a close election


3. Would any like to argue that he is wrong...and Obama will get more votes this time than last?


4. Do you realize that George Bush actually did better the second time?

a. He went from 48% of the electorate the first time, to 51% the second time.

b. He received 11.5 million more votes the second time than the first.

5. Democrat Senator from Georgia, Zell Miller spoke for Bush at the Republican Convention. He was the keynote speaker. Text Of Zell Miller's RNC Speech - CBS News

a. Which Republican Senators have endorsed President Obama? Any?



6. New York City three time Mayor Ed Koch, "a Democrat, will for the first time in his life vote for a Republican presidential candidate..."...Bush. Ed Koch: I’m voting for Bush

a. Name a couple of major Republicans who have announced they will vote for Obama.

b. Then there is Arthur Davis, former Democratic Party member of the United States House of Representatives for Alabama's 7th congressional district, four termer, "' one of President Obama’s earliest supporters and a former co-chairman for his presidential campaign, announced Tuesday that he was leaving the Democratic Party for good."
Artur Davis, former prominent Obama backer, leaves Democratic Party - Los Angeles Times




7. Historically, how many Presidents have run for re-election and won with smaller percentages of the electorate?
None.

8. Lots of Democrats voted for Bush in 2004. Are you expecting lots of Republicans to vote for Obama???

a. "Republicans hold an enthusiasm advantage over Democrats, as a majority of them say they are “more enthusiastic than usual about voting” for president, according to a new poll Thursday."
Republicans more excited to vote - POLITICO.com


Oh....one more piece of bad news for Obama?

"...But in the 12 battlegrounds — Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin — ...in this late-June sample, the results were Obama, 47 percent, to Romney at 45 percent. In other words, after Obama spent an estimated $68 million or more over Romney in the battlegrounds on negative ads during this time period, Obama lost a net 7 points."

And...

“According to the RealClearPolitics average of polling in 12 swing states, Obama has leads outside the margin of error in only Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Nevada, Romney leads in two (North Carolina and Missouri) and the rest are essentially tied, such as Obama’s 0.8 percent lead in Florida.”
Lucianne.com News Forum - Thread


Chill the champagne, Republicans!

Now...don't be too hard on those '08 Obama-voters....they knew not what they did.

I heard Fred Thompson being interviewed on some show tonight. He said what I have been starting to think lately, that Romney is going to win the popular vote but lose the electoral college. He made a very good point. Romney is much stronger in the red states than Obama is in the blue, but Obama is holding on to his lead in almost all of the swing states. Regardless of the margin in the states that are solid red or blue, the electoral votes are the same. The bottom line is that the popular vote is meaningless and the battle will play out in only about ten states. It should be interesting for anyone living in one of those states.

 

[Article 15]

I heard Fred Thompson being interviewed on some show tonight. He said what I have been starting to think lately, that Romney is going to win the popular vote but lose the electoral college. He made a very good point. Romney is much stronger in the red states than Obama is in the blue, but Obama is holding on to his lead in almost all of the swing states. Regardless of the margin in the states that are solid red or blue, the electoral votes are the same. The bottom line is that the popular vote is meaningless and the battle will play out in only about ten states. It should be interesting for anyone living in one of those states.

It's going to be hilarious if Obama squeaks out a win in the EC but loses the popular vote because the South comes out in droves to vote against him.

 

[TheGreatGatsby]

“According to the RealClearPolitics average of polling in 12 swing states, Obama has leads outside the margin of error in only Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Nevada, Romney leads in two (North Carolina and Missouri) and the rest are essentially tied, such as Obama’s 0.8 percent lead in Florida.”

Funny thing is__ I think of all those states and I consider them more likely to be for Romney. New Hampshire is where Romney kicked off his campaign and they are the state that consistently bucks the liberal trend in the northeast.

Unemployment in Nevada is in double digits and there is a huge Mormon base there. I do worry about the unions rigging it again though. Exit polls showed that Engel had whooped Reid and then we heard all the stories after the fact that the SEIU somehow had their mits all over the machines as the "regulators" of them.

And Pennsylvania admittedly has yet to poll great for Romney. But if I recall correctly, they have the greatest amount of undecideds and those votes don't go to the incumbent. Also, Obama's EPA has been f'ing with their coal industry.

And when I hear that Obama is ahead in Florida, I just laugh because I know that Romney will win that state hands down. If I didn't feel that way, I'd be more inclined to endorse Rubio, who I don't like.

 

[PoliticalChic]

If you're a communist do us a favor. Don't vote for Obama.. Just move to China and leave us alone.

The GOP keeps sending our jobs there like crazy,..sounds like the GOP is the new communist party that I agree should move there.

Did you accidentally write 'GOP' when you meant Obama?


1. The Obama administration had joined the new Arab-based International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), and agreed to provide millions to support international green energy jobs. “In its fiscal 2012 budget request for international programs, the administration has asked for $5.2 million for IRENA.” U.S. Taxpayers on the Hook As Obama Joins a New International Renewable Energy Agency | CNSNews.com How many jobs in the United States will this endeavor provide?



2. Obama regulatory and tax policies sent jobs overseas.

3. “President Barack Obama will present his “jobs plan” on Wednesday at a company which is shipping jobs overseas…. WestStar is a high-end, specialty manufacturer that just opened a new facility in San Jose, Costa Rica — creating many new jobs there, but not in the United States.” Obama to speak at NC company shipping jobs to Costa Rica | The Daily Caller



4. “This isn’t the first time Obama has chosen to speak at a North Carolina company outsourcing jobs overseas. In mid-June, Obama spoke at Cree LED Light Company to discuss his job creation and economic policies. Cree has been shipping jobs to China.” Ibid.

a. Cree was also a recipient of Obama stimulus funds, a portion of which was also used to send jobs overseas. Limbaugh, “The Great Destroyer,” p.27.

5. “The Department of Energy estimated that 82,000 jobs have been created and has acknowledged that as much as 80 percent of some green programs, including $2.3 billion of manufacturing tax credits, went to foreign firms that employed workers primarily in countries includingChina, South Korea and Spain, rather than in the United States.” 'Green' jobs no longer golden in stimulus - Washington Times



6. WASHINGTON -- Xerox, whose CEO, Ursula Burns, is advising President Obama on exports, last week told its product engineering employees that it is in outsourcing talks with India-based IT services firm HCL Technologies. Xerox CEO, an Obama appointee, may send jobs to Indian firm - Computerworld

7. (CNSNews.com) – U.S. Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood said today that he told his daughter to buy a Japanese car--a Toyota Sienna--and that she did so. U.S. Transportation Secretary: I Told My Daughter to Buy Japanese Car | CNSNews.com

8. “U.S. funds, Arizona effort help Mexico trucks pollute less
Using EPA grant money, the state offered to refit the trucks with the new exhaust systems, replacing factory-installed mufflers with converters similar to what is required for U.S. trucks. The process takes two or three hours to complete at a cost per truck of about $1,600…. The entire cost - parts and labor - is paid by the EPA grant through ADEQ.” U.S. funds, Arizona effort help Mexico trucks pollute less



9. “…Obama administration is now taking your American tax dollars and using them to fund the BBC World Service — Britain’s state-financed radio network.” The PJ Tatler » Your tax dollars now funding the BBC in addition to NPR


Glad to straighten you out.

 

[Old Rocks]

Reality.

President Obama 332 Governor Romney 206

RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map No Toss Ups

 

[rightwinger]

What I like best about PC posts are the intellectual dishonesty and outright deception

.4. Do you realize that George Bush actually did better the second time?

a. He went from 48% of the electorate the first time, to 51% the second time.

b. He received 11.5 million more votes the second time than the first.

Do you think PC would mention that a possible reason is that there was a third party candidate in 2000 and that her "bump" in Bush results were a result of one less candidate to vote for and more people voting?
She has a future with FoxNews

 

[onecut39]

1. Barack Obama won, in 2008, by 7% of the vote.

2. The President now admits, albeit inadvertently, that he will lose this time. He tells his supporters:
"This election is going to be even closer than the last one," Obama told Iowa Democrats..."
Obama warns backers: This will be a close election


3. Would any like to argue that he is wrong...and Obama will get more votes this time than last?


4. Do you realize that George Bush actually did better the second time?

a. He went from 48% of the electorate the first time, to 51% the second time.

b. He received 11.5 million more votes the second time than the first.

5. Democrat Senator from Georgia, Zell Miller spoke for Bush at the Republican Convention. He was the keynote speaker. Text Of Zell Miller's RNC Speech - CBS News

a. Which Republican Senators have endorsed President Obama? Any?



6. New York City three time Mayor Ed Koch, "a Democrat, will for the first time in his life vote for a Republican presidential candidate..."...Bush. Ed Koch: I’m voting for Bush

a. Name a couple of major Republicans who have announced they will vote for Obama.

b. Then there is Arthur Davis, former Democratic Party member of the United States House of Representatives for Alabama's 7th congressional district, four termer, "' one of President Obama’s earliest supporters and a former co-chairman for his presidential campaign, announced Tuesday that he was leaving the Democratic Party for good."
Artur Davis, former prominent Obama backer, leaves Democratic Party - Los Angeles Times




7. Historically, how many Presidents have run for re-election and won with smaller percentages of the electorate?
None.

8. Lots of Democrats voted for Bush in 2004. Are you expecting lots of Republicans to vote for Obama???

a. "Republicans hold an enthusiasm advantage over Democrats, as a majority of them say they are “more enthusiastic than usual about voting” for president, according to a new poll Thursday."
Republicans more excited to vote - POLITICO.com


Oh....one more piece of bad news for Obama?

"...But in the 12 battlegrounds — Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin — ...in this late-June sample, the results were Obama, 47 percent, to Romney at 45 percent. In other words, after Obama spent an estimated $68 million or more over Romney in the battlegrounds on negative ads during this time period, Obama lost a net 7 points."

And...

“According to the RealClearPolitics average of polling in 12 swing states, Obama has leads outside the margin of error in only Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Nevada, Romney leads in two (North Carolina and Missouri) and the rest are essentially tied, such as Obama’s 0.8 percent lead in Florida.”
Lucianne.com News Forum - Thread


Chill the champagne, Republicans!

Now...don't be too hard on those '08 Obama-voters....they knew not what they did.

George (stupid) Bush won because he used the time tested method of starting a war (a useless war) and fanning the flames.

But you forgot the Supreme court. That didn't hurt either.

 

[rightwinger]

. “According to the RealClearPolitics average of polling in 12 swing states, Obama has leads outside the margin of error in only Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Nevada, Romney leads in two (North Carolina and Missouri) and the rest are essentially tied, such as Obama’s 0.8 percent lead in Florida.”

Nice spin

Romney actually trails in ten of twelve swing states but PC assumes anything close does not count. She also fails to note that Obama has a 40 point electoral lead in non-swing states. Romney essentially needs eight of twelve swing states to win

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/?state=nwa

Election 2012 Obama Romney RCP Average
National Polls 46.9 44.4 Obama +2.5
Electoral College 221. 181 *
Intrade Odds 55.3 41.6 *

 

[NYcarbineer]

[
7. (CNSNews.com) – U.S. Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood said today that he told his daughter to buy a Japanese car--a Toyota Sienna--and that she did so. U.S. Transportation Secretary: I Told My Daughter to Buy Japanese Car | CNSNews.com

The Toyota Sienna is built in Princeton, Indiana at the Toyota plant employing 4500.

They are even EXPORTING Indiana-built Toyotas to Korea.

Stop being stupid. Stop! Now!

I do have a question for you. Why didn't you research where the Sienna was actually built before you posted that misleading propaganda. Why didn't you think of that? Why was it the first thing I thought of when I read that?

Are you beginning to see why you're wrong so consistently, and I'm so consistently right?

 

[Jackson]

If you're a communist do us a favor. Don't vote for Obama.. Just move to China and leave us alone.

The GOP keeps sending our jobs there like crazy,..sounds like the GOP is the new communist party that I agree should move there.

Did you accidentally write 'GOP' when you meant Obama?


1. The Obama administration had joined the new Arab-based International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), and agreed to provide millions to support international green energy jobs. “In its fiscal 2012 budget request for international programs, [B]the administration has asked for $5.2 million for IRENA[/B].” U.S. Taxpayers on the Hook As Obama Joins a New International Renewable Energy Agency | CNSNews.com How many jobs in the United States will this endeavor provide?



2. Obama regulatory and tax policies sent jobs overseas.

3. “President Barack Obama will present his “jobs plan” on Wednesday at a company which is shipping jobs overseas…. WestStar is a high-end, specialty manufacturer that just opened a new facility in San Jose, Costa Rica — creating many new jobs there, but not in the United States.” Obama to speak at NC company shipping jobs to Costa Rica | The Daily Caller



4. “This isn’t the first time Obama has chosen to speak at a North Carolina company outsourcing jobs overseas. In mid-June, Obama spoke at Cree LED Light Company to discuss his job creation and economic policies. Cree has been shipping jobs to China.” Ibid.

a. Cree was also a recipient of Obama stimulus funds, a portion of which was also used to send jobs overseas. Limbaugh, “The Great Destroyer,” p.27.

5. “The Department of Energy estimated that 82,000 jobs have been created and has acknowledged that as much as 80 percent of some green programs, including $2.3 billion of manufacturing tax credits, went to foreign firms that employed workers primarily in countries includingChina, South Korea and Spain, rather than in the United States.” 'Green' jobs no longer golden in stimulus - Washington Times



6. WASHINGTON -- Xerox, whose CEO, Ursula Burns, is advising President Obama on exports, last week told its product engineering employees that it is in outsourcing talks with India-based IT services firm HCL Technologies. Xerox CEO, an Obama appointee, may send jobs to Indian firm - Computerworld

7. (CNSNews.com) – U.S. Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood said today that he told his daughter to buy a Japanese car--a Toyota Sienna--and that she did so. U.S. Transportation Secretary: I Told My Daughter to Buy Japanese Car | CNSNews.com

8. “U.S. funds, Arizona effort help Mexico trucks pollute less
Using EPA grant money, the state offered to refit the trucks with the new exhaust systems, replacing factory-installed mufflers with converters similar to what is required for U.S. trucks. The process takes two or three hours to complete at a cost per truck of about $1,600…. The entire cost - parts and labor - is paid by the EPA grant through ADEQ.” U.S. funds, Arizona effort help Mexico trucks pollute less



9. “…Obama administration is now taking your American tax dollars and using them to fund the BBC World Service — Britain’s state-financed radio network.” The PJ Tatler » Your tax dollars now funding the BBC in addition to NPR


Glad to straighten you out.

So, that's jobs for Costa Rica. China, South Korea, Spain, India, and Mexico. They thank you President Obama. When do we get ours?

 

[Jackson]

1. Barack Obama won, in 2008, by 7% of the vote.

2. The President now admits, albeit inadvertently, that he will lose this time. He tells his supporters:
"This election is going to be even closer than the last one," Obama told Iowa Democrats..."
Obama warns backers: This will be a close election


3. Would any like to argue that he is wrong...and Obama will get more votes this time than last?


4. Do you realize that George Bush actually did better the second time?

a. He went from 48% of the electorate the first time, to 51% the second time.

b. He received 11.5 million more votes the second time than the first.

5. Democrat Senator from Georgia, Zell Miller spoke for Bush at the Republican Convention. He was the keynote speaker. Text Of Zell Miller's RNC Speech - CBS News

a. Which Republican Senators have endorsed President Obama? Any?



6. New York City three time Mayor Ed Koch, "a Democrat, will for the first time in his life vote for a Republican presidential candidate..."...Bush. Ed Koch: I’m voting for Bush

a. Name a couple of major Republicans who have announced they will vote for Obama.

b. Then there is Arthur Davis, former Democratic Party member of the United States House of Representatives for Alabama's 7th congressional district, four termer, "' one of President Obama’s earliest supporters and a former co-chairman for his presidential campaign, announced Tuesday that he was leaving the Democratic Party for good."
Artur Davis, former prominent Obama backer, leaves Democratic Party - Los Angeles Times




7. Historically, how many Presidents have run for re-election and won with smaller percentages of the electorate?
None.

8. Lots of Democrats voted for Bush in 2004. Are you expecting lots of Republicans to vote for Obama???

a. "Republicans hold an enthusiasm advantage over Democrats, as a majority of them say they are “more enthusiastic than usual about voting” for president, according to a new poll Thursday."
Republicans more excited to vote - POLITICO.com


Oh....one more piece of bad news for Obama?

"...But in the 12 battlegrounds — Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin — ...in this late-June sample, the results were Obama, 47 percent, to Romney at 45 percent. In other words, after Obama spent an estimated $68 million or more over Romney in the battlegrounds on negative ads during this time period, Obama lost a net 7 points."

And...

“According to the RealClearPolitics average of polling in 12 swing states, Obama has leads outside the margin of error in only Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Nevada, Romney leads in two (North Carolina and Missouri) and the rest are essentially tied, such as Obama’s 0.8 percent lead in Florida.”
Lucianne.com News Forum - Thread


Chill the champagne, Republicans!

Now...don't be too hard on those '08 Obama-voters....they knew not what they did.

George (stupid) Bush won because he used the time tested method of starting a war (a useless war) and fanning the flames.

But you forgot the Supreme court. That didn't hurt either.

9/11 had nothing to do with it, right? What was Bush supposed to do when our land was attacked? say, "Gee, I hate when this happens?"

 

[PoliticalChic]

7. Historically, how many Presidents have run for re-election and won with smaller percentages of the electorate?
None.

.

3 minutes research to prove that's a lie.

Roosevelt won in '36 with 60.8% of the vote, and won re-election in '40 with 54.7%

You're an idiot.

OMG!

This must be your "annual smart day"!!


While " In fact, no president has ever won re-election with a lower percentage of the major-party vote."
Ponnuru: Polarized electorate suggests Obama will win the 2012 election

...your post is absolutely correct re: FDR!!!

Rep on the way!



Don't you want to thank me for teaching you to research?

 

[PoliticalChic]

POlitical Chic, that was all good news and very factual. I enjoyed reading all of it. Thanks for the hard work!

It's factual up until the point you factcheck it.

I'd love the see all the other errors you found....

...and we'll check the last one November 7th.

 

[PoliticalChic]

As NYcarbineer points out, your claim is factually false: Presidents have been reelected with a lower percentage of the electorate than they received when they were elected. In addition to FDR, Grover Cleveland was reelected with a lower percentage of the electorate (though Cleveland was not a sitting president when he was reelected).

More to the point, comparing Obama's projected vote share to his vote share in 2008 is a truly awful metric for predicting an election. It penalizes him for doing well in 2008, and it relies on knowing Obama's vote share, which is essentially deterministic by itself. And even if FDR and Cleveland hadn't won relatively narrow reelections there would be no reason to suppose that such a thing couldn't happen.

Of much more predictive power are the swing-state polls you cite. They actually have Obama up
in the swing states. Is the champagne you suggest Republicans drink meant to console them?

Hey.....

....are you anglin' for an 'invite' to our celebration party???


(I'll see what I can do.....)

 

[PoliticalChic]

As NYcarbineer points out, your claim is factually false: Presidents have been reelected with a lower percentage of the electorate than they received when they were elected. In addition to FDR, Grover Cleveland was reelected with a lower percentage of the electorate (though Cleveland was not a sitting president when he was reelected).

More to the point, comparing Obama's projected vote share to his vote share in 2008 is a truly awful metric for predicting an election. It penalizes him for doing well in 2008, and it relies on knowing Obama's vote share, which is essentially deterministic by itself. And even if FDR and Cleveland hadn't won relatively narrow reelections there would be no reason to suppose that such a thing couldn't happen.

Of much more predictive power are the swing-state polls you cite. They actually have Obama up
in the swing states. Is the champagne you suggest Republicans drink meant to console them?

Romney us up in 5 of the swing states and tied in two.

PoliticalChic's source for that is ultimately RCP, which currently gives forty more electoral college votes to Obama than Romney (RealClearPolitics - Opinion, News, Analysis, Videos and Polls). If your point is that Romney has a good chance then I certainly agree. But if you are arguing that Romney is currently favored (or certain to win, as PoliticalChic claims) then you should be aware that you are betting against the handicappers and the markets.

"If your point is that Romney has a good chance then I certainly agree."


OK..OK....you can come....

...but it's BYOB.

 

[PoliticalChic]

1


6. New York City three time Mayor Ed Koch, "a Democrat, will for the first time in his life vote for a Republican presidential candidate..."...Bush. Ed Koch: I’m voting for Bush

.

Ed Koch has endorsed Obama in 2012. This is 2012, you know? Don't you?

But the item you post is true....isn't it?

 

[NYcarbineer]

7. Historically, how many Presidents have run for re-election and won with smaller percentages of the electorate?
None.

.

3 minutes research to prove that's a lie.

Roosevelt won in '36 with 60.8% of the vote, and won re-election in '40 with 54.7%

You're an idiot.

OMG!

This must be your "annual smart day"!!


While " In fact, no president has ever won re-election with a lower percentage of the major-party vote."
Ponnuru: Polarized electorate suggests Obama will win the 2012 election

...your post is absolutely correct re: FDR!!!

Rep on the way!



Don't you want to thank me for teaching you to research?

I was making people like you look stupid long before you came along.

 

[PoliticalChic]

" he will loose"

He didn't say that, he said it would be closer.

Stop lying, and last I saw obama is up in swing states.

1. You should know by now that I never lie.

2. Why is it always my job to attempt to bring the lesser among us up to a semblance of literacy???

OK....I suppose it is based on the concept that 'a conservative is never so tall as when she stoops to lift up a Liberal....'

I'll try...but based on your innate intelligence, the result is doubtful.


From the OP:

"2. The President now admits, albeit inadvertently, that he will lose this time. He tells his supporters:
"This election is going to be even closer than the last one," Obama told Iowa Democrats..."
Obama warns backers: This will be a close election

"...albeit inadvertently..."

al·be·it/ôlˈbē-it/
Conjunction:
Although: "he was making progress, albeit rather slowly".

in·ad·vert·ent/ˌinədˈvərtnt/
Adjective:
Not resulting from or achieved through deliberate planning; unintentional.
(of a mistake) Made through lack of care; negligent.


So...the phrase "...albeit inadvertently..." means he didn't mean to, but accidently did it...
Beginning to see why no one ever copied off your paper?



3. In English writing, quotation marks or inverted commas (informally referred to as quotes or speech marks)[1] are punctuation marks surrounding a quotation, direct speech,...
Quotation mark - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


Now, notice that quotation marks are found here: "This election is going to be even closer than the last one,"

See....that is telling you what Obama actually said.

Quotation marks, again: "You are a fool."
That was me who said that.
Don't mistake it for all the other folks who tell you that.

Wow this is a lot of bullshit just to prop up you implying something that is not there.
Forget rhet you are a female trip....

I’ll slow down…I didn’t realize it was an ‘idiot x-ing.’

Good work, dunce...

...you've retreated from "stop lying" to "you implying something that is not there."
But...it is there, ...what isn't there is comprehension on your part.

Don't you want to thank me for teaching you what 'albeit inadvertently" means?
Not even an apple???

Actually, I didn’t mean to hurt your feelings…I was aiming lower.