Why economic recovery is lagging--Posner

[Antiderivative]

For what it's worth, I think the major impediment to economic growth at present is uncertainty on the part of the key economic actors, namely businessmen and consumers. Businessmen are hesitant to hire and invest and consumers to spend, in both cases because of uncertainty about their economic prospects.

I use “uncertainty” in the sense in which the economists Frank Knight and John Maynard Keynes distinguished between risk and uncertainty. Risk was a probability that could be estimated, uncertainty a risk that could not be estimated. The distinction is unpopular among economists because a nonquantifiable risk greatly complicates statistical analysis of economic phenomena, but it seems to me a real and important distinction when one is dealing with the business cycle. And there is a growing literature in economics on “ambiguity aversion,” by which is meant aversion to uncertainty in the Knight-Keynes sense.

*snip*

At present the U.S. economy is afflicted with at least five major sources of uncertainty.

1. One is the economy of the eurozone. If Greece defaults on its public debt, which remains a possibility in the near future (a year or two years from now), this may have a domino effect

2. Second is uncertainty about whether and on what terms Congress will raise the U.S. public-debt ceiling. Default is unlikely, but no one knows what deal the Republicans and Democrats will strike to avert default.

3. Third is uncertainty about federal regulation of the financial and health sectors. The ambitious health-care and financial-regulation reform statutes enacted by Congress in 2009 are very long and complicated, but at the same time incomplete—completion of these regulatory edifices was delegated to regulatory agencies that have not come close to finishing their work.

4. Fourth is a widespread suspicion in the business community that President Obama is in the pocket of the labor unions, is viscerally hostile to business, and is entirely focused on winning reelection. The suspicion is (in my opinion) greatly exaggerated, but is real.

5. Fifth, there is a sense that politicians the world over, notably including the United States, are preoccupied with the very near term and are simply postponing the day of reckoning with the world’s economic problems that grew out of the financial crisis of September 2008 and the ensuing global economic crisis, which is still with us​

Why the economic recovery is lagging

 

[skookerasbil]

and 4 billion other economists are saying the same thing. As long as lefty k00ks are standing in the way........our economy is fcukked. Get 'em the fcukk out and you got whats known as a BOOM!!!

 

[Oddball]

4. Fourth is a widespread suspicion in the business community that President Obama is in the pocket of the labor unions, is viscerally hostile to business, and is entirely focused on winning reelection. The suspicion is (in my opinion) greatly exaggerated, but is real.

What palpable evidence to the contrary do we have?....Like none.

 

[oreo]

For what it's worth, I think the major impediment to economic growth at present is uncertainty on the part of the key economic actors, namely businessmen and consumers. Businessmen are hesitant to hire and invest and consumers to spend, in both cases because of uncertainty about their economic prospects.

I use “uncertainty” in the sense in which the economists Frank Knight and John Maynard Keynes distinguished between risk and uncertainty. Risk was a probability that could be estimated, uncertainty a risk that could not be estimated. The distinction is unpopular among economists because a nonquantifiable risk greatly complicates statistical analysis of economic phenomena, but it seems to me a real and important distinction when one is dealing with the business cycle. And there is a growing literature in economics on “ambiguity aversion,” by which is meant aversion to uncertainty in the Knight-Keynes sense.

*snip*

At present the U.S. economy is afflicted with at least five major sources of uncertainty.

1. One is the economy of the eurozone. If Greece defaults on its public debt, which remains a possibility in the near future (a year or two years from now), this may have a domino effect

2. Second is uncertainty about whether and on what terms Congress will raise the U.S. public-debt ceiling. Default is unlikely, but no one knows what deal the Republicans and Democrats will strike to avert default.

3. Third is uncertainty about federal regulation of the financial and health sectors. The ambitious health-care and financial-regulation reform statutes enacted by Congress in 2009 are very long and complicated, but at the same time incomplete—completion of these regulatory edifices was delegated to regulatory agencies that have not come close to finishing their work.

4. Fourth is a widespread suspicion in the business community that President Obama is in the pocket of the labor unions, is viscerally hostile to business, and is entirely focused on winning reelection. The suspicion is (in my opinion) greatly exaggerated, but is real.

5. Fifth, there is a sense that politicians the world over, notably including the United States, are preoccupied with the very near term and are simply postponing the day of reckoning with the world’s economic problems that grew out of the financial crisis of September 2008 and the ensuing global economic crisis, which is still with us​

Why the economic recovery is lagging

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that the most innovative--risk taking people in this country--aka small business people which are-aka the largest employer of this county--have been under continual THREAT from Barack Obama since his campaign--that should they reach the 250K bar--they will be thrown in the same tax bracket as multi-billion dollar large corporations--which is 39%.

When you add in state and local taxes--these hard-working--innovative--individuals who have risked it all--would be paying .50 cents on every dollar they earn. Therefore--small business in this country has tucked in like a turtle waiting for the threat to leave. And that threat is Barack Obama.

This country has elected an economic MORON.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

4. Fourth is a widespread suspicion in the business community that President Obama is in the pocket of the labor unions, is viscerally hostile to business, and is entirely focused on winning reelection. The suspicion is (in my opinion) greatly exaggerated, but is real.

What palpable evidence to the contrary do we have?....Like none.

Not to mention that Obama shivved GM & Chrysler creditors in order to pay off the UAW.

 

[oldsalt]

Or, yet another way to say it....Companies have pocketed their record profits since early 2010, and don't hire, slash benefits, overwork existing employees, and blame it on the black guy in office. Largest liquid assets in history and they can't hire? You people ARE sheeple. Yeah, it's the President's fault. Wake up, children. You've been had.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Businesses tend to shy away from keeping their money in nations that nationalize their industries

 

[Oddball]

Or, yet another way to say it....Companies have pocketed their record profits since early 2010, and don't hire, slash benefits, overwork existing employees, and blame it on the black guy in office. Largest liquid assets in history and they can't hire? You people ARE sheeple. Yeah, it's the President's fault. Wake up, children. You've been had.

They're stashing their assets because they have no idea what the Dick-in-Chief is going to do next, to try and lay his grubby Marxist mitts on them.

And that race card dog don't hunt anymore, dickweed....As though it ever did in the first place.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Or, yet another way to say it....Companies have pocketed their record profits since early 2010, and don't hire, slash benefits, overwork existing employees, and blame it on the black guy in office. Largest liquid assets in history and they can't hire? You people ARE sheeple. Yeah, it's the President's fault. Wake up, children. You've been had.

They're stashing their assets because they have no idea what the Dick-in-Chief is going to do next, to try and lay his grubby Marxist mitts on them.

And that race card dog don't hunt anymore, dickweed....As though it ever did in the first place.

racist

 

[oldsalt]

Or, yet another way to say it....Companies have pocketed their record profits since early 2010, and don't hire, slash benefits, overwork existing employees, and blame it on the black guy in office. Largest liquid assets in history and they can't hire? You people ARE sheeple. Yeah, it's the President's fault. Wake up, children. You've been had.

They're stashing their assets because they have no idea what the Dick-in-Chief is going to do next, to try and lay his grubby Marxist mitts on them.

And that race card dog don't hunt anymore, dickweed....As though it ever did in the first place.

Riiiight. keep drinking the kochjuice, asshole.

 

[Antiderivative]

Or, yet another way to say it....Companies have pocketed their record profits since early 2010, and don't hire, slash benefits, overwork existing employees, and blame it on the black guy in office. Largest liquid assets in history and they can't hire? You people ARE sheeple. Yeah, it's the President's fault. Wake up, children. You've been had.

I would say that the unabashed O-bots need to wake up. Obama has proven time and time again that he is a corporatist. Plus, who is responsible for creating all this uncertainty in the marketplace? It stems from D.C.

Additionally, we have been on the road to recovery for the last 2 years and unemployment is now at 9.2%, which is a lower estimate. Higher estimates put it around 20% and even higher in some places of the country.
Alternate Unemployment Charts

Two years and trillions of dollars later has shown that Obama has mismanaged this economy. However, apologetics will look for scapegoats such as Bush and big businesses.

 

[oldsalt]

Businesses tend to shy away from keeping their money in nations that nationalize their industries

You too, have another sip.

 

[oreo]

4. Fourth is a widespread suspicion in the business community that President Obama is in the pocket of the labor unions, is viscerally hostile to business, and is entirely focused on winning reelection. The suspicion is (in my opinion) greatly exaggerated, but is real.

What palpable evidence to the contrary do we have?....Like none.

Not to mention that Obama shivved GM & Chrysler creditors in order to pay off the UAW.

Yes--he sure did. Unbelievable--I had forgotten about that. Rip off investors--and bond holders--to buy the union vote.

 

[oreo]

Or, yet another way to say it....Companies have pocketed their record profits since early 2010, and don't hire, slash benefits, overwork existing employees, and blame it on the black guy in office. Largest liquid assets in history and they can't hire? You people ARE sheeple. Yeah, it's the President's fault. Wake up, children. You've been had.

I would say that the unabashed O-bots need to wake up. Obama has proven time and time again that he is a corporatist. Plus, who is responsible for creating all this uncertainty in the marketplace? It stems from D.C.

Additionally, we have been on the road to recovery for the last 2 years and unemployment is now at 9.2%, which is a lower estimate. Higher estimates put it around 20% and even higher in some places of the country.
Alternate Unemployment Charts

Two years and trillions of dollars later has shown that Obama has mismanaged this economy. However, apologetics will look for scapegoats such as Bush and big businesses.

25% of this country is considered underemployed--working temporary or part time jobs. And when McDonald's is our largest new job creator today--that spells this country is in the tank.

 

[Oddball]

Or, yet another way to say it....Companies have pocketed their record profits since early 2010, and don't hire, slash benefits, overwork existing employees, and blame it on the black guy in office. Largest liquid assets in history and they can't hire? You people ARE sheeple. Yeah, it's the President's fault. Wake up, children. You've been had.

They're stashing their assets because they have no idea what the Dick-in-Chief is going to do next, to try and lay his grubby Marxist mitts on them.

And that race card dog don't hunt anymore, dickweed....As though it ever did in the first place.

Riiiight. keep drinking the kochjuice, asshole.

And you keep playing that worn out race card, schitthead.

 

[Patrick2]

There's lots of anecdotal evidence to support the OP. The porkulus, obamacare, the deficits, the threat of new taxes, huge new powers in the EPA ........ Businessmen are always worrying about the next shoe to drop from leftwingers in the executive branch. In this environment, they don't hire new workers unless they have to, and hang onto their cash. Without the loose cannon in the whitehouse, unemployment would have eased by now.

 

[Antiderivative]

25% of this country is considered underemployed--working temporary or part time jobs. And when McDonald's is our largest new job creator today--that spells this country is in the tank.

I agree with you and McDonald's is typically considered an inferior good, or it was during our early 2000's recession.

An inferior good is classified by the fact that as your income goes down, you buy more of it. This is evidence that Obama's economic recovery of the last two years has not benefited most Americans.

 

[Richard-H]

Businesses tend to shy away from keeping their money in nations that nationalize their industries

Like China?

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Businesses tend to shy away from keeping their money in nations that nationalize their industries

Like China?

China needs to pass ObamaCare and FinReg

 

[Too Tall]

Or, yet another way to say it....Companies have pocketed their record profits since early 2010, and don't hire, slash benefits, overwork existing employees, and blame it on the black guy in office. Largest liquid assets in history and they can't hire? You people ARE sheeple. Yeah, it's the President's fault. Wake up, children. You've been had.

It is being blamed on the guy in office who just happens to be black.