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That would be a craven thing to do. Why would Obama chicken out of facing the music? If he does that, he will be thought a coward. If he goes through with the debate, he's a rather good speaker, and it might assure people he would account to whoever asks him hard questions in the future.I think Obama will kill in the debates, and when Romney has to defend MORE tax cuts on the rich, destroying Medicare, and growing the military to bigger than the rest of the world combined...ideological idiocy. It'll be time for some facts, not blather.
<you must spread some reputation around before giving to Big Black Dog again>I have two predictions... Who ever gathers in the most electoral votes in November will be the next President. Second prediction is the next President will be Romney.
I would not rule that out at all. I think the only way for Obama to win is to garner all the dead people's votes, the fictitious people's votes, the multiple votes and possibly to disallow all of the military absentee ballots.The numbers aren't there for obama. He's going to have to pull off some massive fraud or something else to get them there.
Perhaps protests and violence designed to prevent people from voting, attacks on voting polls, some civil unrest.
Obama will win for the following reasons.
1) The electoral college favors him.
2) He's more likable than Romney. (then again, so is the Ebola virus).
3) His followers are more enthusiastic.
The only thing that makes Romney viable is that a bunch of wealthy sugar daddies are paying a lot of money to keep him afloat. That got him past Santorum and Gingrich, but the Media is going to expose the light to that.
How does the electoral college favor Obama?
a poll...
not for who you want to win...
but who you think will win...
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As of today (05/23/2012), the RCP 2012 Election Map shows the following:
Solid or lean Obama: 227 electoral votes
Solid or lean Romney: 170 electoral votes
Tossup states: 141 electoral votes
Tossup Electoral Votes
Arizona 11
Colorado 9
Florida 29
Iowa 6
Michigan 16
Missouri 10
New Hampshire 4
North Carolina 15
Ohio 18
Virginia 13
Wisconsin 10
You may think your guy is going to win because you don't like the other guy, but the Electoral College's opinion is a bit more important. Romney has work to do. He definitely has time, but he has work to do.
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As of today (05/23/2012), the RCP 2012 Election Map shows the following:
Solid or lean Obama: 227 electoral votes
Solid or lean Romney: 170 electoral votes
Tossup states: 141 electoral votes
Tossup Electoral Votes
Arizona 11
Colorado 9
Florida 29
Iowa 6
Michigan 16
Missouri 10
New Hampshire 4
North Carolina 15
Ohio 18
Virginia 13
Wisconsin 10
You may think your guy is going to win because you don't like the other guy, but the Electoral College's opinion is a bit more important. Romney has work to do. He definitely has time, but he has work to do.
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He does have work to do, but some of RCP's toss-up states are laughable. Arizona is NOT going to go to Obama. I lived there for 15 years and I can assure you that the idea of Arizona going blue is the most flat out hilarious thing I have ever heard. Even PPP that lately has been giving Obama a 5 point advantage against the average of the other professional pollsters has Romney +7 in Arizona. Dream the hell on.
There's not a single poll on RCP's board that has Missouri going to Obama and you have to go back a year to find one in the margin of error. Florida is just about gone for Obama. There's not a single poll in Michigan recently that is inside the margin of error. That's Obama's state to lose. I mean come on.
I predict a GOP landslide come November... then it's gonna get real ugly.
I predict a Dem landslide.
Yup, could be. I'm not following the trends in the swing state polls, so I don't know what to expect. Seems to me Romney's biggest cause for hope is the fact that he was relatively close after that ridiculous nomination circus. I'd guess the Dems weren't expecting that.
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Yup, could be. I'm not following the trends in the swing state polls, so I don't know what to expect. Seems to me Romney's biggest cause for hope is the fact that he was relatively close after that ridiculous nomination circus. I'd guess the Dems weren't expecting that.
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Right now the number of state polls are frustratingly few and so in some states like Iowa, Nevada, Colorado, etc...there's just a whole lot of nothing to look at. But I am tracking what there is to track on my polling analysis thread. Weekly reports for poll averages, trends, state trends, demographics, and likely voter scenarios are all broken down and posted on Wednesday mornings. You are certainly invited to have a look and contribute if you wish. My only request is to keep things as objective as possible when you post. With only one or two exceptions (ahem: NYC and nobrain) everyone has stayed pretty true to that rule and it's made it a pretty nice place to see what's going on from multiple angles.
I think Obama is going to win..and the Senate and House might go Democrat.
Those Republican debates are going to come back and bite really hard.
As far as I can see, the odds are about 60-40 towards an Obama victory.
This person probably voted for Bush, twice.
Unless Obama can crap bricks of gold every hour on the hour, I think he is doomed.