When Santorum tanks, who will the GOP turn to?

[Dragon]

Here's an interesting take on how turnout is shaping up in this primary season, by demographic, and what that implies for the GOP this year.

The Electoral Wasteland - NYTimes.com

In barely a century’s time, the population of the United States has more than tripled, to 313 million. We are a clattering, opinionated cluster of nearly all the world’s races and religions, and many of its languages, under one flag.

You would not know any of this looking at who is voting in one of the strangest presidential primary campaigns in history. There is no other way to put this without resorting to demographic bluntness: the small fraction of Americans who are trying to pick the Republican nominee are old, white, uniformly Christian and unrepresentative of the nation at large.

None of that is a surprise. But when you look at the numbers, it’s stunning how little this Republican primary electorate resembles the rest of the United States. They are much closer to the population of 1890 than of 2012. . . .

So far, three million voters have participated in the Republican races, less than the population of Connecticut. This means that 89 percent of all registered voters in those states have not participated in what is, from a horse-race perspective, a very tight contest.

Yes, we know Republicans don’t like their choices; it’s a meh primary. But still, in some states, this election could be happening in a ghost town. Less than 1 percent of registered voters turned out for Maine’s caucus. In Nevada, where Republican turnout was down 25 percent from 2008, only 3 percent of total registered voters participated. . . .

South Carolina is the major outlier this year, the only state to show a big increase in turnout, up 35 percent from 2008. But when you look at who voted, you see a very specific niche.

In the Palmetto State, 98 percent of primary voters were white, 72 percent were age 45 or older and nearly two-thirds were evangelical Christian, according to exit polls. From this picture, you may think South Carolina is an all-white, aging state, full of fervent churchgoers. But the Census says the state is only 66 percent white, with a median age of 36. Exit polls from 2008 put the evangelical vote at 40 percent of total. . . .

Outside of Florida, this contest has been nearly an all-white affair. Nevada is 26 percent Latino by population; in the primary, only 5 percent were Latino. Caucus voters in Iowa were 99 percent white.

Again, these numbers represent a small echo chamber. Whites are 63.7 percent of the total population of the United States; in 1900, they were 88 percent — still more diverse than Republican primary voters today.

The takeaway point of this poorly attended, unrepresentative Republican primary contest is not to focus entirely on who is voting but on why the candidates are taking such fringe positions. One explains the other.

Thus, the New York Times poll of this week found that all voters, by a 66 to 26 ratio, support the federal requirement that private health care plans cover the full cost of birth control for female patients. Among women, support is 72-20. And with Catholics, it’s 67-25. Yes, Catholics are slightly more liberal than the population at large.

Other polls show a huge majority of Americans want to raise taxes on the rich, favor the planned withdrawal from Afghanistan and believe the earth is warming because of human action.

Yet the Republican front-runner of the moment, Rick Santorum, is with the minority on each of these issues, and Mitt Romney is a near match.

So, given how out of sync these two candidate are with the rest of the country, how could they be the front-runners? It’s simple: Look at who is voting, a nation unto itself.

Now I predict that the usual suspects, if they reply at all, will dismiss this as the views of a liberal columnist and so avoid dealing with the hard facts he presents.

As long as that head-in-the-sand tendency persists, so will the problem.

 

[JakeStarkey]

Wonderful: the Toddster and the JoeB arguing with each other.

a crazy comedy duo, those two

I can still smack you around if you'd like.

You end up face down butt in the air as you always do. But . . . go ahead if you need the attention, and I will call The T in for you.

 

[C_Clayton_Jones]

It goes back to Romney(care) when Santorum eventually ends his "flavor of the week" stint.

It’s always been Romney.

And the problem with Romney isn’t that he’s not ‘conservative enough,’ whatever that means. The problem with Romney is he’s weak, indecisive, and inconsistent.

Had Romney been a consistent liberal over the years – his true designation – conservatives might not agree with him but they’d have no choice but to respect him.

Currently the right affords him neither support nor respect.

Now I predict that the usual suspects, if they reply at all, will dismiss this as the views of a liberal columnist and so avoid dealing with the hard facts he presents.

As long as that head-in-the-sand tendency persists, so will the problem.

True on both counts.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

Wonderful: the Toddster and the JoeB arguing with each other.

a crazy comedy duo, those two

I can still smack you around if you'd like.

You end up face down butt in the air as you always do. But . . . go ahead if you need the attention, and I will call The T in for you.

Still projecting I see.

 

[JoeB131]

We are not running McCain or Bush or your buddy, Perry. We are running Romney, Paul, Newt, and Santorum. Romney will do better with Hispanics than Rick.

You are voting dem regardless of who the GOP runs so we know why you don't want Romney.

He can beat Obama.

I'm not voting for Romney because I hate Mormons. Let's get that straight. This is a blood fued for me.

I can vote for Santorum. I could vote for Gingrich. Sky Pixie help me, I could even vote for Ron Paul. Won't vote for Romney because he's a Mormon. That was pretty much the end of the discussion for me.

But the point I am making is that there are a lot of Hispanic who won't vote for him either, for the reasons stated above that you avoid. One of them is that they don't really like Mormons, either. The other is that he demagogued the immigration issue.

 

[JoeB131]

If there is an American that does not indirectly employ a boat load of illegal immigrants here and Chinks over there then let me be the first to shake his hand.

Really has nothing to do with what I said, but let's look at that. The people who control commerce have made the decision that the middle class made too much money back in the 1980's and they didn't have enough to buy all the Polo Ponies they wanted.

So they insisted on free trade with countries like China that chop up their own citizens for transplant organs.

And they insisted on "right to work" laws that busted up the unions.

And they insisted on lax immigration laws.

Now, I agree, it would be nice if we all employed a bit of common sense and spent the few extra pennies to only buy what is made here.

It would be better if we refocused our illegal immigration efforts off the poor immigrants and onto the rich assholes who pay them under the table so they won't have to pay an American a fair wage.

And this is where "conservatives" like you and Romney have really messed it up. In your effort to get rid of the middle class and unions, you've made people more dependent on government, and therefore, more likely to vote for more of it.

 

[Lakhota]

I'm hearing more whispers about Jeb Bush in the GOP ranks. I don't think America is ready for another Bush in the White House.

 

[rdean]

When Santorum tanks, who will the GOP turn to?

GEE SUS!

 

[Lakhota]

YIKES...

AWOOOGAH!!! Conservatives Start To Sound The Alarm Over Rick Santorum’s Extremism | TPM2012

DRUDGE: SANTORUM'S SATAN WARNING

Santorum: Satan is Systematically Destroying America | rightwingwatch.org

Santorum: Satan is Systematically Destroying America - YouTube

 

[rdean]

YIKES...

AWOOOGAH!!! Conservatives Start To Sound The Alarm Over Rick Santorum’s Extremism | TPM2012

DRUDGE: SANTORUM'S SATAN WARNING

Santorum: Satan is Systematically Destroying America | rightwingwatch.org

Santorum: Satan is Systematically Destroying America - YouTube

Oh please, most of them are in "RAPTURE" over what he is saying.

 

[Dot Com]

The Repuub "Basers" eat that stuff up

 

[Luddly Neddite]

Jeb Bush?

We can't afford another Bush.

I'm still hoping for a Trump/$arah ticket.

C'mon - you all know a Dumb and Dummer Ticket would be great fun. If nothing else, just imagine watching them fight over the tanning bed!

 

[Dot Com]

Truth is stranger than fiction when it comes to this Primary.

 

[Avatar4321]

Ive noticed that Santorum isn't tanking yet. Maybe you were a little over optimistic when you assumed he would.

 

[Liability]

Ive noticed that Santorum isn't tanking yet. Maybe you were a little over optimistic when you assumed he would.

ah, but he clearly said "when," so it must be all inevitable and shit.

 

[Luddly Neddite]

I don't think anyone is worried about Santorum being the candidate. He's such a cripple in almost every way (He does walk upright - I'll give him that)-

but what would that say about our country? Are we really THAT sick?

Just thinking about that makes me throw up in my mouth a bit ...

 

[Liability]

I don't think anyone is worried about Santorum being the candidate. He's such a cripple in almost every way (He does walk upright - I'll give him that)-

but what would that say about our country? Are we really THAT sick?

Just thinking about that makes me throw up in my mouth a bit ...

Count him out.

That's clever, muddly.dullwit.

Yes. Definitely. Count him out.

 

[Avatar4321]

Jeb Bush?

We can't afford another Bush.

I'm still hoping for a Trump/$arah ticket.

C'mon - you all know a Dumb and Dummer Ticket would be great fun. If nothing else, just imagine watching them fight over the tanning bed!

We definitely can't afford another Obama.

 

[Avatar4321]

I don't think anyone is worried about Santorum being the candidate. He's such a cripple in almost every way (He does walk upright - I'll give him that)-

but what would that say about our country? Are we really THAT sick?

Just thinking about that makes me throw up in my mouth a bit ...

Considering we elected Obama, yes we really are that sick.

 

[C_Clayton_Jones]

I'm hearing more whispers about Jeb Bush in the GOP ranks. I don't think America is ready for another Bush in the White House.

America was never ready for a Bush in the WH.