there4eyeM
unlicensed metaphysician
- Jul 5, 2012
- 20,712
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Romney.
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What's behind Obamas swing state surge? Pollsters oversampling Democrats
What's behind Obamas swing state surge? Pollsters oversampling Democrats
Every poll in EVERY state by multiple polling agencies?
Is that what FoxNews has been telling you?
What's behind Obamas swing state surge? Pollsters oversampling Democrats
Spot on.
"Thirty-two years ago at this moment in time, Reagan was losing by 9 points to Carter."
And there was no doubt that Carter was born in America!
If Republicans want to stick their heads in the sand and pretend that polls don't matter and polls are biased against them, they are welcome to it
The swing state polls represent multiple polling companies with wide demographics between states. The polls are indicating that whatever Romney is doing is not working. They can either revise their strategies or prepare for a massive defeat
Obama gets points for caring but loses on not having any answers.did you see number six? and you want us to take this seriously? seriously?
Republicans are running on a platform of "the economy sucks". This election will be determined by approximately ten swing states. What happens to the Republican plans when the economy in those states happens to be good?
Never discount like ability in an election. In most presidential elections the more likable candidate wins
Obama gets points for caring but loses on not having any answers.did you see number six? and you want us to take this seriously? seriously?
Republicans are running on a platform of "the economy sucks". This election will be determined by approximately ten swing states. What happens to the Republican plans when the economy in those states happens to be good?
Never discount like ability in an election. In most presidential elections the more likable candidate wins
However, the full effect of his "You didn't build that" speech hasn't fully kicked in.
Obama really fucked up when he said that. It was about as bad as the infamous Howard Dean "Scream".
1. Many voters think Romney doesn't care about them
"Mitt Romney started this campaign with a problem: An image as a wealthy elitist, out of touch with middle-class life," say David A. Fahrenthold and Aaron Blake at The Washington Post. And the new polls show that "Romney still hasn't overcome that first impression."
2. Obama's attack ads are working
The Obama campaign has spent millions of dollars in all three states to air brutal ads attacking Romney's tenure at private equity firm Bain Capital and his refusal to release several years of tax returns. The effects of that assault shows in the polls, with many likely voters expressing "concerns over his business background and his reluctance to release more of his tax returns,"
3. Women overwhelmingly support Obama
"The president's strength among women is the dominant dynamic fueling his lead," says Peter Brown at Quinnipiac. About 60 percent of women in Ohio and Pennsylvania support Obama, as do half of women in Florida.
4. Voters agree with Obama on raising taxes on the rich
Obama "drew broad support from voters in each state for a proposal to raise income taxes on people whose household income is more than $250,000,"
5. Swing states have relatively low unemployment rates
Obama could be benefiting from "lower swing-state unemployment rates," says Niall Stanage at The Hill. Ohio's unemployment rate of 7.3 percent is lower than the national rate of 8.2 percent, which might make the lackluster economy less of a factor in the Buckeye State. In addition, Florida's economy appears to be improving, which could also make Obama a more palatable candidate.
6. The economy is no longer a major factor
"Usually voter preferences of an incumbent candidate track closely with the trajectory of the economy," but that's not happening this year, says Josh Kraushaar at The National Journal. It's possible that voters feel neither candidate can fix the economy's problems, and are instead voting on other factors, such as likability.
What's behind President Obama's swing-state surge? 6 theories - The Week
Lies and trickery
What's behind Obamas swing state surge? Pollsters oversampling Democrats
Spot on.
Please explain how pollsters oversampLe Democrats. Most of these statewide polls are small, localized polling agencies. Some are large like Rassmussen
Are conservatives now claiming Rassmussen has a liberal bias?