What will happen to Europe?

[Mr. Wolf]

Actually the birth rates of muslims in europe are adapting to the european ones.
The muslime population in europe is shrinking in the long run.
Industrialisation and living in industrialized countries reduces birth rates.
Source:
10 Myths About Muslim Immigrants in the West
Nonfiction Book Review A Convergence of Civilizations The Transformation of Muslim Societies Around the World by Youssef Courbage and Emmanuel Todd trans. from the French by George Holoch Jr.. Columbia Univ. 35.50 160p ISBN 978-0-231-15002-6

 

[ThirdTerm]

The situation in France is by far the most acute. Allowing for illegal immigrants, Muslims might already comprise 10 percent of the population, and that figure could certainly rise to 30 percent by 2050. Quite plausibly, too, Germany as a whole might be dealing with a Muslim population of 25 percent by 2050, with heavy Muslim concentrations in all the major cities. The Muslim population of the Netherlands doubled between 1990 and 2005, growing from perhaps 3 to 6 percent of the population. The figures are all open to further expansion if we assume an EU with essentially uncontrolled borders, open to unrestricted mass immigration from North Africa and the Middle East. In contrast to Europe, the world’s most intense growth rates are in the nations bordering the Red Sea, lands that cannot cope with the numbers they already have: new inhabitants will desperately wish to migrate somewhere.

Having said this, we need to be careful about extrapolating further, as Bernard Lewis did when he consigned the future Europe to the ‘‘Western Maghreb.’’ In order to reach a simple majority by 2100, as Lewis projected, the Muslim population would need to double every thirty years or so. That would require an extraordinarily high birthrate, one far higher than the present figure, and —a riskier assumption—this rate would have to remain unabated through the end of the century. Muslim birthrates would have to continue steadily on this incredible upslope through the end of the century, despite all the pressures for cultural assimilation, particularly as they affect women. A Muslim population of around 25 percent by 2100 is more probable—a historically striking statistic, with enormous political implications, but nothing like a majority. Nor does this figure take account of high birthrates among Europe’s immigrant Christians, who would serve as a counterweight to Muslim expansion.


Philip Jenkins, Demographics, Religion, and the Future of Europe, Orbis: A Journal of World Affairs, vol. 50, no. 3, p.533, summer 2006.