What Obama Needs to Carry This Elections

Discussion in 'Clean Debate Zone' started by Jackson, Aug 1, 2012.

  1. Jackson
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    Jackson Gold Member Supporting Member

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    What Obama Needs to Carry This Elections

    According to Pew Research, this is the totals*, Obama received in the 2008 election. He has to mirror or gain in some of these areas to win this election. What do you think his liklihood is?

    White vote - 53%
    Black vote - 95
    Hispanic - 66

    18-29 year olds - 66%
    30-44 - 52
    45-64 - 49
    65+ - 45

    Republican - 9%
    Democrat - 89
    Independent - 52

    Conservatives - 20%
    Moderates - 60
    Liberals -88

    Urban - 68%
    Suburban - 50
    Rural - 45

    *based on exit polling data

    I predict that Obama is in jeopardy of missing his points in the white, all age groups, Independents, Moderates and the suburban rural voters.
     
  2. P@triot
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    P@triot Gold Member

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    A MIRACLE!!! :lol:
     
  3. Jackson
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    Jackson Gold Member Supporting Member

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    Well, that wasn't calculated in there, but...
     
  4. catzmeow
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    catzmeow BANNED

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    Romney doesn't inspire much enthusiasm. I am not a big fan of Obama, but when I get in that booth to punch the card, he's going to look better than the alternative (to me).

    Jackson: there is no way in hell that you'd ever have voted for Obama, so your perceptions on this issue are obviously going to be skewed. You're engaging in magical thinking here.

    The issue isn't whether people will vote for Obama. It's whether they will prefer Romney to Obama. Romney is not the kind of guy who is going to mobilize the masses to vote enthusiastically. However, he will inspire a lot of the Obama base to vote, just to keep him out of the white house.

    I say the odds are low that Romney can beat Obama, in spite of your wishful thinking.
     
    Last edited: Aug 1, 2012
  5. Jackson
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    Jackson Gold Member Supporting Member

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    More importantly, the enthusiasm Obama once had is not apparent at this time. Quite the opposite, I believe.
     
  6. catzmeow
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    catzmeow BANNED

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    I'm not particularly enthusiastic about Obama. But, there is no way in hell that I want Romney as president.
     
  7. Jackson
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    Jackson Gold Member Supporting Member

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    I was excited about his presidency at the beginning when I saw the celebrations around the nation and globe. I thought this could be the man to bring it all together.

    After three and a half years of his policies and tearing this country apart, I see things differently.

    The data I provided are not skewed. My opinions are as good as yours. Just where do you disagree?
     
  8. Jackson
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    Jackson Gold Member Supporting Member

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    so, do you see Obama getting the numbers he did in 2008?
     
  9. catzmeow
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    catzmeow BANNED

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    Last election, there were record turnouts. There were clear differences between the candidates. This election, I suspect there won't be, which means that the numbers of voters required to win will be different. I also suspect that many teapartiers won't vote for Romney, but their vote will be diluted by 3rd party candidates such Gary Johnson (Libertarian Party).

    I also disagree with Pew's methodology.

    I tend to think the scientists in this article are correct, and that Obama will win the popular vote AND the electoral college.

    Analysis: Scientists go beyond the polls to forecast U.S. election | Reuters
     
  10. catzmeow
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    catzmeow BANNED

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    No, I don't believe voters from either party are enthusiastic this year, so overall voting will be down, in both parties.
     

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