U.S. Adds 103,000 Jobs in December, Unemployment at 9.4%

Trajan

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since the unemployment number is imho a cooked stat (as it is displayed as a benchmark ). We have to look at the jobs actually created which at the end of the day, is what counts. *shrugs*, ( I always subtract 125k from the whole number, 125K is a low end estimation of jobs needed to keep up with pop. growth, ie.e, treading water)...Seasonally adjusted?= Count me unimpressed.



U.S. Adds 103,000 Jobs in December, Unemployment at 9.4%
By Bob Willis - Jan 7, 2011 6:00 AM PT


Employers in the U.S. added fewer jobs than forecast in December and the unemployment rate dropped, partly reflecting a shrinking workforce, a sign the labor-market recovery will take time to develop.

Payrolls increased 103,000, compared with the median forecast of 150,000 in a Bloomberg News survey, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. Employment the previous two months increased more than previously estimated. The jobless rate fell to 9.4 percent, the lowest level since May 2009.

Faster job growth is needed to keep consumer spending accelerating and ensure the economic recovery becomes self- sustaining. Payrolls need to grow about double December’s pace to make further progress in lowering the jobless rate, one reason why Federal Reserve policy makers have reiterated they will stick to their plan for more monetary stimulus.

“The economy is adding workers but there are no reliable signs the pace of hiring is improving,” said Julia Coronado, chief economist for North America at BNP Paribas in New York. “We are staying on track but I’m not sure growth is set to accelerate.”

Stock-index futures fell after the report, with the March contract on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropping 0.1 percent to 1,268.8 at 8:57 a.m. in New York. Treasuries rose, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year note declining to 3.37 percent from 3.40 percent from late yesterday

more at-
U.S. Adds 103,000 Jobs in December, Unemployment at 9.4% - Bloomberg



and for 'balance'-


Unemployment rate falls to 9.4 percent, hiring up

Unemployment rate falls to 9.4 percent, lowest since May 2009, as businesses boost hiring
Christopher S. Rugaber, AP Economics Writer, On Friday January 7, 2011, 9:13 am

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The nation's unemployment rate dropped to 9.4 percent last month, its lowest level in 19 months. That was because more people found jobs, but also because some people gave up on their job searches.

The Labor Department says employers added 103,000 jobs in December, an improvement from November but far below most analysts' expectations.

Private employers added a net total of 113,000 jobs last month. Government shed 10,000.

More people were hired in previous months than the government first estimated. The government's revisions showed the economy added 210,000 jobs in October, above the previous figure of 172,000. November's total was revised to 71,000, up from 39,000.

Over the past three months, the economy has added an average of 128,000 jobs. That's just enough to keep up with the population growth. Nearly double is generally needed to significantly reduce the unemployment rate.


103K new jobs in Dec. point to slow, steady growth - Yahoo! Finance
 
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I think it's better than the market thinks. The household survey was consistent with the ADP number. In fact, they were exactly equal at +297,000, a statistical fluke but consistent nonetheless.

The unemployment rate is exaggerated, given that 250k dropped out of the workforce. Adjusting for that would put the rate at 9.6% not 9.4%. U6 mistakeningly aka the "real" unemployment rate fell from 17% to 16.7%.

The household survey usually leads NFPs since payrolls don't capture small and mid sized businesses. A rise in C&I loans is consistent with increasing employment by small businesses. However recent ISM data suggests hiring will still be weak.
 
Bernanke announced that "the recovery has finally taken hold". If that is true, maybe it is time to short stocks....:lol:

the bizzaro world of investing makes fools of us all.
 
Bernanke announced that "the recovery has finally taken hold". If that is true, maybe it is time to short stocks....:lol:

the bizzaro world of investing makes fools of us all.

how many times has the master of the universe made such a statement...3- 5- 8?:lol:


when we start creating say, 300k a month for a quarter I will beleive, until then......its a back and forth mish mash of smoke and mirrors.
 
Also payrolls were adjusted upwards by 60,000 over the past two months. Thus total payrolls rose 163,000.

The simple fact of the matter remains (as I have said for the past thirty years) Total Crap.

The government reports are so laughable as to be slap stick comedy. I like Satire when it comes to comedy. I never laugh at Slap Stick. The government numbers do not amuse me.
 
I think it's better than the market thinks. The household survey was consistent with the ADP number. In fact, they were exactly equal at +297,000, a statistical fluke but consistent nonetheless.

The unemployment rate is exaggerated, given that 250k dropped out of the workforce. Adjusting for that would put the rate at 9.6% not 9.4%. U6 mistakeningly aka the "real" unemployment rate fell from 17% to 16.7%.

The household survey usually leads NFPs since payrolls don't capture small and mid sized businesses. A rise in C&I loans is consistent with increasing employment by small businesses. However recent ISM data suggests hiring will still be weak.



No it's not. It's still lackluster at best performance.

The Labor Force SHRANK by 260,000, with those defined as Not In The Labor Force increasing by 434,000. If so many people hadn't given up, there would not be anything resembling a decrease in unemployment.

Legal Insurrection has a good analysis of more of the report:

Dig just a bit deeper, and you will see that 0.2% of that drop (or half the total drop) was from a decrease in the "participation rate" from 64.5 to 64.3 of the population. So half of the good news reflects that people have dropped out of the work force and have given up looking for work.

To put this in context, I ran a chart from the BLS website historical statistics database, showing the participation rate over the past 20 years, which shows that we are at a 20-year low:....


Le·gal In·sur·rec·tion: Key Numbers In Unemployment Report Not So Good


Net net, job creation is not even keeping up with population growth. More people are subsisting in states of long term under or unemployment.
 
Bernanke announced that "the recovery has finally taken hold". If that is true, maybe it is time to short stocks....:lol:

the bizzaro world of investing makes fools of us all.

how many times has the master of the universe made such a statement...3- 5- 8?:lol:


when we start creating say, 300k a month for a quarter I will beleive, until then......its a back and forth mish mash of smoke and mirrors.
Yet the Government projections for the future are more and more and more jobs lost. Look at what they predict for 2018....


Civilian labor force participation rates by age, sex, race, and ethnicity
 
I think it's better than the market thinks. The household survey was consistent with the ADP number. In fact, they were exactly equal at +297,000, a statistical fluke but consistent nonetheless.

The unemployment rate is exaggerated, given that 250k dropped out of the workforce. Adjusting for that would put the rate at 9.6% not 9.4%. U6 mistakeningly aka the "real" unemployment rate fell from 17% to 16.7%.

The household survey usually leads NFPs since payrolls don't capture small and mid sized businesses. A rise in C&I loans is consistent with increasing employment by small businesses. However recent ISM data suggests hiring will still be weak.



No it's not. It's still lackluster at best performance.

The Labor Force SHRANK by 260,000, with those defined as Not In The Labor Force increasing by 434,000. If so many people hadn't given up, there would not be anything resembling a decrease in unemployment.

Legal Insurrection has a good analysis of more of the report:

Dig just a bit deeper, and you will see that 0.2% of that drop (or half the total drop) was from a decrease in the "participation rate" from 64.5 to 64.3 of the population. So half of the good news reflects that people have dropped out of the work force and have given up looking for work.

To put this in context, I ran a chart from the BLS website historical statistics database, showing the participation rate over the past 20 years, which shows that we are at a 20-year low:....


Le·gal In·sur·rec·tion: Key Numbers In Unemployment Report Not So Good


Net net, job creation is not even keeping up with population growth. More people are subsisting in states of long term under or unemployment.

The same exact thing happened under Bush. Many people gave up. They weren't counted as unemployed. Had they..the debacle that was the Bush economy would have been an unmitigated disaster for the whole eight years.

Which it was..
 
Bernanke announced that "the recovery has finally taken hold". If that is true, maybe it is time to short stocks....:lol:

the bizzaro world of investing makes fools of us all.

how many times has the master of the universe made such a statement...3- 5- 8?:lol:


when we start creating say, 300k a month for a quarter I will beleive, until then......its a back and forth mish mash of smoke and mirrors.
Yet the Government projections for the future are more and more and more jobs lost. Look at what they predict for 2018....


Civilian labor force participation rates by age, sex, race, and ethnicity



This is quite interesting - and I wonder how much of this demographic shift is factored into the brewing SS entitlement tsunami:

Those 65 and older are showing a significant increase in their labor force participation rates through 2018.
 
since the unemployment number is imho a cooked stat (as it is displayed as a benchmark ). We have to look at the jobs actually created which at the end of the day, is what counts. *shrugs*, ( I always subtract 125k from the whole number, 125K is a low end estimation of jobs needed to keep up with pop. growth, ie.e, treading water)...Seasonally adjusted?= Count me unimpressed.



U.S. Adds 103,000 Jobs in December, Unemployment at 9.4%
By Bob Willis - Jan 7, 2011 6:00 AM PT


Employers in the U.S. added fewer jobs than forecast in December and the unemployment rate dropped, partly reflecting a shrinking workforce, a sign the labor-market recovery will take time to develop.

Payrolls increased 103,000, compared with the median forecast of 150,000 in a Bloomberg News survey, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. Employment the previous two months increased more than previously estimated. The jobless rate fell to 9.4 percent, the lowest level since May 2009.

Faster job growth is needed to keep consumer spending accelerating and ensure the economic recovery becomes self- sustaining. Payrolls need to grow about double December’s pace to make further progress in lowering the jobless rate, one reason why Federal Reserve policy makers have reiterated they will stick to their plan for more monetary stimulus.

“The economy is adding workers but there are no reliable signs the pace of hiring is improving,” said Julia Coronado, chief economist for North America at BNP Paribas in New York. “We are staying on track but I’m not sure growth is set to accelerate.”

Stock-index futures fell after the report, with the March contract on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropping 0.1 percent to 1,268.8 at 8:57 a.m. in New York. Treasuries rose, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year note declining to 3.37 percent from 3.40 percent from late yesterday

more at-
U.S. Adds 103,000 Jobs in December, Unemployment at 9.4% - Bloomberg



and for 'balance'-


Unemployment rate falls to 9.4 percent, hiring up

Unemployment rate falls to 9.4 percent, lowest since May 2009, as businesses boost hiring
Christopher S. Rugaber, AP Economics Writer, On Friday January 7, 2011, 9:13 am

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The nation's unemployment rate dropped to 9.4 percent last month, its lowest level in 19 months. That was because more people found jobs, but also because some people gave up on their job searches.

The Labor Department says employers added 103,000 jobs in December, an improvement from November but far below most analysts' expectations.

Private employers added a net total of 113,000 jobs last month. Government shed 10,000.

More people were hired in previous months than the government first estimated. The government's revisions showed the economy added 210,000 jobs in October, above the previous figure of 172,000. November's total was revised to 71,000, up from 39,000.

Who is doing these numbers that they were that far off to begin with?
How can we now trust any numbers they try to feed us?

Over the past three months, the economy has added an average of 128,000 jobs. That's just enough to keep up with the population growth. Nearly double is generally needed to significantly reduce the unemployment rate.

And the new first time unemployed list grew by 18,000 last week?


103K new jobs in Dec. point to slow, steady growth - Yahoo! Finance



I don't know, seems to me there are some magic numbers being thrown around out there and none of them are right.
 
I think it's better than the market thinks. The household survey was consistent with the ADP number. In fact, they were exactly equal at +297,000, a statistical fluke but consistent nonetheless.

The unemployment rate is exaggerated, given that 250k dropped out of the workforce. Adjusting for that would put the rate at 9.6% not 9.4%. U6 mistakeningly aka the "real" unemployment rate fell from 17% to 16.7%.

The household survey usually leads NFPs since payrolls don't capture small and mid sized businesses. A rise in C&I loans is consistent with increasing employment by small businesses. However recent ISM data suggests hiring will still be weak.



No it's not. It's still lackluster at best performance.

The Labor Force SHRANK by 260,000, with those defined as Not In The Labor Force increasing by 434,000. If so many people hadn't given up, there would not be anything resembling a decrease in unemployment.

Legal Insurrection has a good analysis of more of the report:

Dig just a bit deeper, and you will see that 0.2% of that drop (or half the total drop) was from a decrease in the "participation rate" from 64.5 to 64.3 of the population. So half of the good news reflects that people have dropped out of the work force and have given up looking for work.

To put this in context, I ran a chart from the BLS website historical statistics database, showing the participation rate over the past 20 years, which shows that we are at a 20-year low:....


Le·gal In·sur·rec·tion: Key Numbers In Unemployment Report Not So Good


Net net, job creation is not even keeping up with population growth. More people are subsisting in states of long term under or unemployment.

The same exact thing happened under Bush. Many people gave up. They weren't counted as unemployed. Had they..the debacle that was the Bush economy would have been an unmitigated disaster for the whole eight years.

Which it was..


the U numbers are at the bls, feel free to share.

Please member something; since the unemployment rate was far lower there was far less 'jobs' to be had not becasue biz was hurting but becasue they and the market inches/inched towards a level of satiation ,the closer we got to the magical 4%-4.5%, the tighter things get.
 
The same exact thing happened under Bush. Many people gave up. They weren't counted as unemployed. Had they..the debacle that was the Bush economy would have been an unmitigated disaster for the whole eight years.

Which it was..


Please provide some statistics to back this claim that the Exact Same Thing - which means the same magnitude of the thing - happened under Bush.
 
since the unemployment number is imho a cooked stat (as it is displayed as a benchmark ). We have to look at the jobs actually created which at the end of the day, is what counts. *shrugs*, ( I always subtract 125k from the whole number, 125K is a low end estimation of jobs needed to keep up with pop. growth, ie.e, treading water)...Seasonally adjusted?= Count me unimpressed.



U.S. Adds 103,000 Jobs in December, Unemployment at 9.4%
By Bob Willis - Jan 7, 2011 6:00 AM PT


Employers in the U.S. added fewer jobs than forecast in December and the unemployment rate dropped, partly reflecting a shrinking workforce, a sign the labor-market recovery will take time to develop.

Payrolls increased 103,000, compared with the median forecast of 150,000 in a Bloomberg News survey, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. Employment the previous two months increased more than previously estimated. The jobless rate fell to 9.4 percent, the lowest level since May 2009.

Faster job growth is needed to keep consumer spending accelerating and ensure the economic recovery becomes self- sustaining. Payrolls need to grow about double December’s pace to make further progress in lowering the jobless rate, one reason why Federal Reserve policy makers have reiterated they will stick to their plan for more monetary stimulus.

“The economy is adding workers but there are no reliable signs the pace of hiring is improving,” said Julia Coronado, chief economist for North America at BNP Paribas in New York. “We are staying on track but I’m not sure growth is set to accelerate.”

Stock-index futures fell after the report, with the March contract on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropping 0.1 percent to 1,268.8 at 8:57 a.m. in New York. Treasuries rose, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year note declining to 3.37 percent from 3.40 percent from late yesterday

more at-
U.S. Adds 103,000 Jobs in December, Unemployment at 9.4% - Bloomberg



and for 'balance'-


Unemployment rate falls to 9.4 percent, hiring up

Unemployment rate falls to 9.4 percent, lowest since May 2009, as businesses boost hiring
Christopher S. Rugaber, AP Economics Writer, On Friday January 7, 2011, 9:13 am

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The nation's unemployment rate dropped to 9.4 percent last month, its lowest level in 19 months. That was because more people found jobs, but also because some people gave up on their job searches.

The Labor Department says employers added 103,000 jobs in December, an improvement from November but far below most analysts' expectations.

Private employers added a net total of 113,000 jobs last month. Government shed 10,000.

More people were hired in previous months than the government first estimated. The government's revisions showed the economy added 210,000 jobs in October, above the previous figure of 172,000. November's total was revised to 71,000, up from 39,000.

Who is doing these numbers that they were that far off to begin with?
How can we now trust any numbers they try to feed us?

Over the past three months, the economy has added an average of 128,000 jobs. That's just enough to keep up with the population growth. Nearly double is generally needed to significantly reduce the unemployment rate.

And the new first time unemployed list grew by 18,000 last week?


103K new jobs in Dec. point to slow, steady growth - Yahoo! Finance



I don't know, seems to me there are some magic numbers being thrown around out there and none of them are right.


remember Sarge- we created 800.000 jobs ...or wait maybe 1.2 million, no how about 2.2 million? okay okay okay...3 million? hold up, screw it lets say 3.4.....:rolleyes:..this data = toys for tots....
 
Actually the US should see a huge false recovery over the next 6-12 months.

Australian coal fields are flooded and the US will have to pick up the slack.

Chinese capital control reforms means a lot of Chinese capital can be and will be invested overseas such as in the US.

So a self-limiting boom is in progress and I fully expect to see the S&P reach new all time highs with a 5% shot at doubling in value then reality will rear its ugly head and be uglier than usual.
 
Actually the US should see a huge false recovery over the next 6-12 months.

Australian coal fields are flooded and the US will have to pick up the slack.

Chinese capital control reforms means a lot of Chinese capital can be and will be invested overseas such as in the US.

So a self-limiting boom is in progress and I fully expect to see the S&P reach new all time highs with a 5% shot at doubling in value then reality will rear its ugly head and be uglier than usual.

Could be.

I would not be surprised to retest the highs then fail.
 
This is very telling. Adjusted for the labor participation rate, the actual unemployment rate is 11.7%.

While today's unemployment number came at a low 9.4%, well below expectations, the one and only reason for this is that the labor force in America has plunged to a fresh 25 year low. Assuming a reversion to the mean in the long-term average participation rate back to 66%, means that the civilian labor force, which in December came at 153,690, a drop of 260,000 from November, is in reality 157.6 million, a delta of 3.91 million currently unaccounted for. Maybe someone can ask Bernanke during his imminent presentation before Congress what happened to the unemployed population, which would have been 18.4 million if this labor force delta was incorporated, resulting in an unemployment rate of 11.7%.

Labor Force Participation Rate Drops To Fresh 25 Year Low, Adjusted Unemployment Rate At 11.7% | zero hedge


Considering that people are living longer, we should expect a high participation rate, not a declining one.
 
This is very telling. Adjusted for the labor participation rate, the actual unemployment rate is 11.7%.

While today's unemployment number came at a low 9.4%, well below expectations, the one and only reason for this is that the labor force in America has plunged to a fresh 25 year low. Assuming a reversion to the mean in the long-term average participation rate back to 66%, means that the civilian labor force, which in December came at 153,690, a drop of 260,000 from November, is in reality 157.6 million, a delta of 3.91 million currently unaccounted for. Maybe someone can ask Bernanke during his imminent presentation before Congress what happened to the unemployed population, which would have been 18.4 million if this labor force delta was incorporated, resulting in an unemployment rate of 11.7%.

Labor Force Participation Rate Drops To Fresh 25 Year Low, Adjusted Unemployment Rate At 11.7% | zero hedge


Considering that people are living longer, we should expect a high participation rate, not a declining one.

While a decreasing LF participation is bad, it's methodologically unsound to add back the difference and count those people as unemployed. For example: someone forced into early retirement due to the bad economy is no longer in the Labor Force, but you can't add them back in as unemployed...they'd either be employed or normally retired. Likewise, students, stay at home spouses, and retirees taking a post-retirement part time job are less likely to try to take a part time job (because they'd have no luck), but you can't add them back in as if they were unemployed either.

There are people who can be legitimately added back in for an alternate view...the Discouraged: those who have looked for work but gave up because they don't think they'd find work. Add them back in and that puts the UE rate at 10.2% (the U-4) Add in all people who are willing and able to work and who have looked in the past year but are no longer looking (for any reason, not just discouragement) and the UE rate goes up to 10.9% (the U-5) Neither is anywhere near the claimed 11.7

Now adding in everyone not looking for work who says they want a job, regardless of whether or not they've ever looked or if they could actually take a job if offered boosts the UE rate to 13.1%, but it also puts the LF participation at 67% (derived from Table A-1 of the Employment Situation

Just taking the difference between current LF participation and some arbitrary guess at what it "should be," and calling all those people unemployed and added to the rate just doesn't make sense.
 
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It is flat.
There is no question that there was a "mini-recovery" Sept-November for many industries. Our business made more money in those 3 months than the 8 months prior combined. (We are manufacturing.)
December was unimpressive across the board for most businesses and January has started out steady, but not what people expected.

mark my words...reports coming out in February will not be rosy.

2010 was an improvement over 2009 or 2008, but absolutely terrible when compared to pre-recession.
I have limited hopes for 2011, IMHO - 2011 will be 5-10% better than 2010. Stipulations that could greatly affect that are numerous.
 
It does make sense in that the government stopped counting the very long term unemployed in 1994. It's not accurate to assume that everyone who is classified as not in the labor force wishes to be not in the labor force.
 

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