U.S. Adds 103,000 Jobs in December, Unemployment at 9.4%

Discussion in 'Economy' started by Trajan, Jan 7, 2011.

  1. Trajan
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    Trajan conscientia mille testes

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    since the unemployment number is imho a cooked stat (as it is displayed as a benchmark ). We have to look at the jobs actually created which at the end of the day, is what counts. *shrugs*, ( I always subtract 125k from the whole number, 125K is a low end estimation of jobs needed to keep up with pop. growth, ie.e, treading water)...Seasonally adjusted?= Count me unimpressed.



    U.S. Adds 103,000 Jobs in December, Unemployment at 9.4%
    By Bob Willis - Jan 7, 2011 6:00 AM PT


    Employers in the U.S. added fewer jobs than forecast in December and the unemployment rate dropped, partly reflecting a shrinking workforce, a sign the labor-market recovery will take time to develop.

    Payrolls increased 103,000, compared with the median forecast of 150,000 in a Bloomberg News survey, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. Employment the previous two months increased more than previously estimated. The jobless rate fell to 9.4 percent, the lowest level since May 2009.

    Faster job growth is needed to keep consumer spending accelerating and ensure the economic recovery becomes self- sustaining. Payrolls need to grow about double December’s pace to make further progress in lowering the jobless rate, one reason why Federal Reserve policy makers have reiterated they will stick to their plan for more monetary stimulus.

    “The economy is adding workers but there are no reliable signs the pace of hiring is improving,” said Julia Coronado, chief economist for North America at BNP Paribas in New York. “We are staying on track but I’m not sure growth is set to accelerate.”

    Stock-index futures fell after the report, with the March contract on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropping 0.1 percent to 1,268.8 at 8:57 a.m. in New York. Treasuries rose, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year note declining to 3.37 percent from 3.40 percent from late yesterday

    more at-
    U.S. Adds 103,000 Jobs in December, Unemployment at 9.4% - Bloomberg



    and for 'balance'-


    Unemployment rate falls to 9.4 percent, hiring up

    Unemployment rate falls to 9.4 percent, lowest since May 2009, as businesses boost hiring
    Christopher S. Rugaber, AP Economics Writer, On Friday January 7, 2011, 9:13 am

    WASHINGTON (AP) -- The nation's unemployment rate dropped to 9.4 percent last month, its lowest level in 19 months. That was because more people found jobs, but also because some people gave up on their job searches.

    The Labor Department says employers added 103,000 jobs in December, an improvement from November but far below most analysts' expectations.

    Private employers added a net total of 113,000 jobs last month. Government shed 10,000.

    More people were hired in previous months than the government first estimated. The government's revisions showed the economy added 210,000 jobs in October, above the previous figure of 172,000. November's total was revised to 71,000, up from 39,000.

    Over the past three months, the economy has added an average of 128,000 jobs. That's just enough to keep up with the population growth. Nearly double is generally needed to significantly reduce the unemployment rate.


    103K new jobs in Dec. point to slow, steady growth - Yahoo! Finance
     
    Last edited: Jan 7, 2011
  2. Toro
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    Toro Diamond Member

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    I think it's better than the market thinks. The household survey was consistent with the ADP number. In fact, they were exactly equal at +297,000, a statistical fluke but consistent nonetheless.

    The unemployment rate is exaggerated, given that 250k dropped out of the workforce. Adjusting for that would put the rate at 9.6% not 9.4%. U6 mistakeningly aka the "real" unemployment rate fell from 17% to 16.7%.

    The household survey usually leads NFPs since payrolls don't capture small and mid sized businesses. A rise in C&I loans is consistent with increasing employment by small businesses. However recent ISM data suggests hiring will still be weak.
     
  3. Toro
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    Toro Diamond Member

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    Also payrolls were adjusted upwards by 60,000 over the past two months. Thus total payrolls rose 163,000.
     
  4. Zander
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    Zander Platinum Member

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    Bernanke announced that "the recovery has finally taken hold". If that is true, maybe it is time to short stocks....:lol:

    the bizzaro world of investing makes fools of us all.
     
  5. Trajan
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    Trajan conscientia mille testes

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    how many times has the master of the universe made such a statement...3- 5- 8?:lol:


    when we start creating say, 300k a month for a quarter I will beleive, until then......its a back and forth mish mash of smoke and mirrors.
     
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  6. Neubarth
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    Neubarth At the Ballpark July 30th

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    The simple fact of the matter remains (as I have said for the past thirty years) Total Crap.

    The government reports are so laughable as to be slap stick comedy. I like Satire when it comes to comedy. I never laugh at Slap Stick. The government numbers do not amuse me.
     
  7. boedicca
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    boedicca Uppity Water Nymph Supporting Member

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    No it's not. It's still lackluster at best performance.

    The Labor Force SHRANK by 260,000, with those defined as Not In The Labor Force increasing by 434,000. If so many people hadn't given up, there would not be anything resembling a decrease in unemployment.

    Legal Insurrection has a good analysis of more of the report:

    Dig just a bit deeper, and you will see that 0.2% of that drop (or half the total drop) was from a decrease in the "participation rate" from 64.5 to 64.3 of the population. So half of the good news reflects that people have dropped out of the work force and have given up looking for work.

    To put this in context, I ran a chart from the BLS website historical statistics database, showing the participation rate over the past 20 years, which shows that we are at a 20-year low:....


    Le·gal In·sur·rec·tion: Key Numbers In Unemployment Report Not So Good


    Net net, job creation is not even keeping up with population growth. More people are subsisting in states of long term under or unemployment.
     
  8. Neubarth
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    Neubarth At the Ballpark July 30th

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    Yet the Government projections for the future are more and more and more jobs lost. Look at what they predict for 2018....


    Civilian labor force participation rates by age, sex, race, and ethnicity
     
  9. Sallow
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    Sallow The Big Bad Wolf. Supporting Member

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    The same exact thing happened under Bush. Many people gave up. They weren't counted as unemployed. Had they..the debacle that was the Bush economy would have been an unmitigated disaster for the whole eight years.

    Which it was..
     
  10. boedicca
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    boedicca Uppity Water Nymph Supporting Member

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    This is quite interesting - and I wonder how much of this demographic shift is factored into the brewing SS entitlement tsunami:

    Those 65 and older are showing a significant increase in their labor force participation rates through 2018.
     

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