5. On the other hand, Taiwan has been defacto independent for over 60 years. It would take a bunch of war mongering assholes to go to war over a symbolic admission of that reality.
Again, maybe you need to read up on Chinese history. I'm sure they didn't cover that in your Home Skule right after the part about the Talking Snake. But China has a HISTORY of invading regions that try to become "independent". Look up the whole Tibet thing.
The west encouraging an independent Taiwan would be taken as well as China encouraging an independent California.