william the wie
Gold Member
- Nov 18, 2009
- 16,667
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Very simple question I heard on McAlvaney that I thought I would throw out here.
Third world/emerging market economies boom really big before everything go boom in a bad way so why is this time different?
OK, some hedging by me. At about the time of the Spanish-American War the US became a developed economy, followed a few years later by Japan. Chile is now a developed economy, also Korea and probably Malaysia as well. But here's the problem. The UK's oldest commonwealth, Newfoundland, no longer exists as a separate nation it was taken over by Canada in the 1930s. The jury is still at least somewhat out on the PIIGS in the EU. At least one, possibly two, of the BRICS countries will probably emerge as a developed country. My ranking of the most likely winner(s) are South Africa, India, Russia, China and Brazil in that order. As late as the 1880s the USAB odds were ranked as Argentina by a country mile, then Brazil and finally the hopeless idiots here in this country. So some real surprises await but in the emerging markets they are most likely going to be unhappy ones.
So gaze into your crystal balls so I can get rich on your insights while you second guess yourselves.
Third world/emerging market economies boom really big before everything go boom in a bad way so why is this time different?
OK, some hedging by me. At about the time of the Spanish-American War the US became a developed economy, followed a few years later by Japan. Chile is now a developed economy, also Korea and probably Malaysia as well. But here's the problem. The UK's oldest commonwealth, Newfoundland, no longer exists as a separate nation it was taken over by Canada in the 1930s. The jury is still at least somewhat out on the PIIGS in the EU. At least one, possibly two, of the BRICS countries will probably emerge as a developed country. My ranking of the most likely winner(s) are South Africa, India, Russia, China and Brazil in that order. As late as the 1880s the USAB odds were ranked as Argentina by a country mile, then Brazil and finally the hopeless idiots here in this country. So some real surprises await but in the emerging markets they are most likely going to be unhappy ones.
So gaze into your crystal balls so I can get rich on your insights while you second guess yourselves.
