Statistikhengst
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ElectoralVote
Here is a screenshot of the map:
I am waiting just a month or so more before doing an exact numerical workup, because the number of delegates can always change somewhat. That map above is for the Republican contests, but the Democratic contests mirror most of the Republican contests (a state like Kentucky being a notable exception). Missing from this map are the 5-6 territorial primaries/caucuses/Conventions, for instance, Puerto Rico, Guam, etc. I will make sure to input them later as well.
There is also a form of calendar here at the Green Papers:
2016 Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions Chronologically
Of course, we all know the four earliest contests: IA, NH, SC and NV. Those are the only four contests that will happen in February.
The first really big date is therefore March 1st, will is already being called "Super Tuesday", with 12 races, in CO, TX, OK, AR, TN, AL, GA, NC, VA, MN, VT and MA. 8 of those 12 contests are from states considered to be in the "South". And interestingly enough, the 3 Northern states are three of the most liberal in the country: MN, VT and MA. The only western contest will be in CO. This means that by March 1st, the majority of the South will have already had its primaries and by the end of March, the only Southern state that will not have had a primary will be: West Virginia. And Texas has an intricate 2-step process that takes time. In fact, it's called the "Texas Two-Step".
As of March 1, 16 contests will have come and gone.
Between March 2 and March 14, 9 states will have contests: HI, WY, ID, KA, MI, ME, KY, MS and. LA.
The LA primary will be, of course, a Jungle primary.
As of March 14th, 25 states will have had contests (exluding the territories). That is just 1 over the number of contests that were held on Super Tuesday, 2008, BTW.
March 15th is critical for there will be WTA contests in four large states: FL, MO, OH and IL. However, MO is non-binding and IL is called a "loophole primary", so assuming that all the Republican candidates we think are going to still be in the race are still in the race, then the results for FL and OH could be deal makers or deal breakers for Bush, Rubio and Kasich.
As of March 15th, 29 states will have had contests.
Between March 16-31, UT and AZ will also have contests, bringing us to 31 states.
April 2016 will mainly be the month for the East Coast and Acela states: NY, CT, RI, PA, MD, DE, + WI, ND and AK. These 9 states bring us to a total of 40 states that will have had their primary/caucus contest by the end of April, 2016. Theoretically, in a "normal" cycle, that would usually mean that one candidate will have sown-up the nomination. Wait and see.
May is going to be the long and drawn out month, with relatively few contests: WV, IN, NE and OR, four states that have little geographically to do with each other.
That brings us to 45 contests by the end of May (excluding the Territories).
In June, the rest of the contests will occur: CA, WA, MT, SD, DC, NJ and DC.
After the primaries are usually the district and then the state conventions, so after the actual primary date, lots of interesting things can happen behind the scenes.
One thing about the calendar that is interesting is that four largest states do not have primaries in the same months or two week time span:
California - June
Texas - Beginning of March
Florida - Mid-March
New York - April
Imagine the knockout blow that could happen were these four states all to be on the same day. Those four states are 33.05% of the population of the USA, and 28.06% of the electoral college.
In fact, the California contest is on June 7th - that is a huge boatload of delegates for BOTH parties and in an very close race to the nomination, could be the deal maker/breaker this time around. CA divvies up its delegates proportionally, called WTA by CD.
More info to come later.
FYI.
Here is a screenshot of the map:
I am waiting just a month or so more before doing an exact numerical workup, because the number of delegates can always change somewhat. That map above is for the Republican contests, but the Democratic contests mirror most of the Republican contests (a state like Kentucky being a notable exception). Missing from this map are the 5-6 territorial primaries/caucuses/Conventions, for instance, Puerto Rico, Guam, etc. I will make sure to input them later as well.
There is also a form of calendar here at the Green Papers:
2016 Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions Chronologically
Of course, we all know the four earliest contests: IA, NH, SC and NV. Those are the only four contests that will happen in February.
The first really big date is therefore March 1st, will is already being called "Super Tuesday", with 12 races, in CO, TX, OK, AR, TN, AL, GA, NC, VA, MN, VT and MA. 8 of those 12 contests are from states considered to be in the "South". And interestingly enough, the 3 Northern states are three of the most liberal in the country: MN, VT and MA. The only western contest will be in CO. This means that by March 1st, the majority of the South will have already had its primaries and by the end of March, the only Southern state that will not have had a primary will be: West Virginia. And Texas has an intricate 2-step process that takes time. In fact, it's called the "Texas Two-Step".
As of March 1, 16 contests will have come and gone.
Between March 2 and March 14, 9 states will have contests: HI, WY, ID, KA, MI, ME, KY, MS and. LA.
The LA primary will be, of course, a Jungle primary.
As of March 14th, 25 states will have had contests (exluding the territories). That is just 1 over the number of contests that were held on Super Tuesday, 2008, BTW.
March 15th is critical for there will be WTA contests in four large states: FL, MO, OH and IL. However, MO is non-binding and IL is called a "loophole primary", so assuming that all the Republican candidates we think are going to still be in the race are still in the race, then the results for FL and OH could be deal makers or deal breakers for Bush, Rubio and Kasich.
As of March 15th, 29 states will have had contests.
Between March 16-31, UT and AZ will also have contests, bringing us to 31 states.
April 2016 will mainly be the month for the East Coast and Acela states: NY, CT, RI, PA, MD, DE, + WI, ND and AK. These 9 states bring us to a total of 40 states that will have had their primary/caucus contest by the end of April, 2016. Theoretically, in a "normal" cycle, that would usually mean that one candidate will have sown-up the nomination. Wait and see.
May is going to be the long and drawn out month, with relatively few contests: WV, IN, NE and OR, four states that have little geographically to do with each other.
That brings us to 45 contests by the end of May (excluding the Territories).
In June, the rest of the contests will occur: CA, WA, MT, SD, DC, NJ and DC.
After the primaries are usually the district and then the state conventions, so after the actual primary date, lots of interesting things can happen behind the scenes.
One thing about the calendar that is interesting is that four largest states do not have primaries in the same months or two week time span:
California - June
Texas - Beginning of March
Florida - Mid-March
New York - April
Imagine the knockout blow that could happen were these four states all to be on the same day. Those four states are 33.05% of the population of the USA, and 28.06% of the electoral college.
In fact, the California contest is on June 7th - that is a huge boatload of delegates for BOTH parties and in an very close race to the nomination, could be the deal maker/breaker this time around. CA divvies up its delegates proportionally, called WTA by CD.
More info to come later.
FYI.
