The Impending End of Islam: Danger

Discussion in 'Middle East - General' started by PoliticalChic, Oct 1, 2011.

  1. PoliticalChic
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    PoliticalChic Diamond Member

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    1. Political science is at a loss in the face of demographic decline, and the consequences thereof. Political theory is based on the principle of nations’ rational self-interest…but if a nation is at the doorstep of extinction, we can imagine “Spengler’s Universal Law: A nation at the brink of death does not have a ‘rational self-interest.’”

    a. Conventional geopolitical theory, based on material factors, cannot address how peoples will behave under such existential threats.

    2. Muslim fertility is shrinking at a rate demographers have never seen before, converging on Europe’s catastrophically low fertility.

    a. Iranian women who grew up with five or six siblings will bear only one or two children in their lifetimes.

    b. Turkey and Algeria are just behind Iran in this regard, and most of the other Muslim nations are catching up (down?) quickly!

    c. By mid-century, the belt of Muslim counties from Morocco to Iran will become as grey as depopulating Europe, and will have the same proportion of dependent elderly as the industrial countries- but with one tenth the productivity!!

    3. With population collapse imminent, radical Islam becomes ever more dangerous, as the taste of their ruin proving to them that they have nothing to lose, and, confronting fertility death, might very well choose to go down in a blaze of (nuclear) glory!

    4. European apathy is the flip side of Islamic extremism, both losing their connection with the past, and their confidence in the future, between European resignation with cultural extinction and the Islamist boast “You love life, we love death!’

    5. Factors associated with population decline include urbanization, education and literacy, modernization.

    a. Children had an economic value in a traditional, agricultural society. Pension systems turned children into a cost rather providers for the elderly.

    b. Female literacy is a powerful predictor of population decline. Literate and affluent women have one or two children, not six or eight. The determination between one, or two, is often religious faith: the industrial world’s lowest fertility rates are found among the Eastern European nations where atheism was the official ideology for generations. The highest rates are associated with nations such as the United States and Israel, with relatively high religious populations. Where faith goes, fertility vanishes. This is not to say that all faiths are equal in this regard: the fastest decline is taking place in Muslim countries.

    6. The secularism that our world offers as the alternative to religion exposes the emptiness, and the lack of fecundity that it proposes.

    a. “The weakest link in the secular account of human nature is that it fails to account for people’s powerful desire to seek immortality for themselves and their loved ones,” so says sociologist Eric Kaufman, in “Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth? Demography and Politics in the Twenty-First Century,” p. 19.

    7. After literacy, the next largest indicator of family size is religious practice. The more frequently Muslims attend mosque, the more likely they are to have a big family. A third of the 88% literate Turks never attend mosque, as is true of the 82% literate Iranians; in both countries fertility is below replacement. But only a fifth of Egyptians never visit a mosque, and fertility is up to about three.

    a. In nations such as Pakistan, Bangladesh and Egypt, worship is high, literacy low, fertility rates high, poverty high, unemployment high, social instability high.

    b. In nations such as Iran, Turkey, Tunisia, Algeria, there is a high degree of literacy, but face a more devastating degree of social failure in the form of a dearth of children.

    Above based on “How Civilizations Die,” by David P. Goldman.
     
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  2. Jos
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    Hows the North American fertility doing?
     
  3. PoliticalChic
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    PoliticalChic Diamond Member

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    By the end of the century, Western Europe’s economically active population will fall by two-fifths, Eastern Europe and East Asia by two-thirds. Russia is facing a demographic death spiral.

    In the United States, it will grow by about a quarter.

    The United States growth rate is, I believe, 2.1...
    ...and owes this largely to religion.
    Evangelicals have 2.6 children per...

    ...Hispanics also high.
     
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  4. ekrem
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    ekrem VIP Member

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  5. PoliticalChic
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    PoliticalChic Diamond Member

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    1. Actually, I have been aware of everything about Goodman's background.

    2. On what basis do you claim this is a "feel-good" thread?

    3. What is the significance of the author's religion?

    4. Did you find anything in the OP to support 'wishing death to the Arabs'?

    5. Did you find any errors to which you can point?

    6. Did you read the book? It is fully documeneted and foot-noted.


    Let me offer some other points by the author, and you see if can find reasons- other than your bigotry- to find fault with....(if I can end a sentence with a preposition).


    1. Europe took 200 years to go from high fertility rates of rural life to the low fertility rates of the industrial world. Iran, Turkey, Tunisia, and Algeria are about to do it in twenty. It is the fastest population decline in recorded history.

    a. Hania Zlotnik, director of the population division at the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, said “In most of the Islamic world it’s amazing, the decline in fertility that has happened,’’ … From 1975 to 1980, women in Iran were giving birth to nearly 7 children per family, according to the latest U.N. population report; from 2005 to 2010 that number is expected to be less than 2. U.N. Sees Falling Middle East Fertility Rates - NYTimes.com

    b. Iranian women who grew up with five or six siblings will bear only one or two children in their lifetimes.

    c. By mid-century, the belt of Muslim counties from Morocco to Iran will become as grey as depopulating Europe, and will have the same proportion of dependent elderly as the industrial countries- but with one tenth the productivity!!

    2. Today there are 9 Iranians of working age for every elderly dependent. By 2050, at the retirement age for most Iranians, there will be more Iranians in their mid sixties than in any other age bracket: seven elderly for every ten working Iranians. And, this is a nation that has a $4,400 per capita, which is about one-tenth of America’s GDP.

    a. While industrial nations are wealthy enough to cushion the impact, and support its elderly- not so with Egypt, Indonesia, Algeria, Iran and Pakistan.

    b. Even Turkey, with a semi-modern economy, has only about one quarter the GDP of Europe.

    3. Can they reverse the trend? Hardly…the 25-year-old’s mother had married in her teens, and had several children by this time. The modern Iranian spent the time in school or working- if she can find a job.


    Actually, Ekky...I fully understand your hostility...
    Having no way to rebut the facts in Goldman's book, you choose to see it as an attack on Arabs...or Islam...or Turks.

    Being none of the above, I don't quite see it as such. Rather, as an interesting exposition to which I had not been exposes.
    Nor, I assume, had you.

    Are you prepared to argue that literate, well-paid women continue to have large
    numbers of children? Or that more religious folks, Muslim, Jewish, Christian, don't have
    more children?
    Or that modernity tends to restrict the size of families?
    I thought not.
    Well, why not simply attack the messenger, if you can't attack
    the message....oh, you already did!

    I suggest that you pick up a copy of the book, and then see what you think.
    Is that too intellectual?
     
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  6. PoliticalChic
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    PoliticalChic Diamond Member

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    You know, I can see where the OP title might get under your skin...
    ...I just thought it might be catchy, get people's attention.

    But if that is your problem, I apologize. It was not meant as a 'wish.'
     
  7. ekrem
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    ekrem VIP Member

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    The average age in these countries is much different than in Europe.
    Turkey will reach same society composition (age-structure) of Germany in 2038 if fertility rate stays the way it is.

    I don't know specifics about other countries like Iran, but what I know is, that there are lots of young and fertile people in those countries and the "point-of-no-return" hasn't been reached like with indigenious population in Europe, and therefore all "predictions" for "young societies" are just snapshots.
     
  8. ekrem
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    ekrem VIP Member

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    1/3rd of all new-borns in Germany are children from immigrant-families, without even counting children from 2nd and 3rd generation as immigrants.
    Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland - Knapp die Hälfte der Großstadtkinder aus Familien mit Migrationshintergrund

    If you substract the children of 2nd and 3rd generation immigrants, who are counted as German, and compare population size of Germans vs. Immigrants than you get a picture of how old the average German really is.
    There's no point of return, just like in many other European countries.

    The picture is different in most Muslim countries with falling fertility rates as the overall young average age in these countries allows for adjustments. A "baby boom" can happen any year/s within the indigenious population.
     
  9. ekrem
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    ekrem VIP Member

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    No, thank you.
    And I won't comment on your "intellect".
     
  10. PoliticalChic
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    PoliticalChic Diamond Member

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    There is no doubt that nations, including the United States, benefit from immigrants, i.e., Germany and Turkish immigrants.

    But as far as the Muslim nations in question, you are making a great mistake to ignore the factors recounted in the thread...

    Literacy...

    Empowerment of women....

    Rising standard of living, urbanization,...

    Secularization and less religious attendance.....


    You cannot reverse these factors, nor the reality that results.....
    ...and that is why you choose to ignore them. There will be no
    'baby boom' in said nations.

    You won't deal with it, but on some level people acknowledge same...and
    that is related to Goldman' thesis that radical Islam becomes more
    dangerous
    when it incorporates the idea that it's goal for Islam becomes
    ever more difficult when it confronts modernity.
     

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