The cruel farce known as the peace process took another downturn this week as Fatah and Hamas signed a unity agreement in Doha, Qatar.
Its not the first such agreement theyve signed, and none of the previous instances was a smashing success. Most notably, the two sides Mecca Agreement of February 2007 collapsed four months later in Hamass bloody ouster of Fatah from Gaza; and the agreement reached in Cairo last May never got off the ground.
This time, though, there may be a crucial difference. It has to do with the mounting momentum of whats called the Arab Spring.
Hamas was long the Sunni odd-man-out in Irans Shiite-dominated alliance. This year, though, top Hamas officials have had to leave Syria for refusing to support Bashar Assads brutality against the largely-Sunni populace. Meanwhile Hamass star has been rising again in the Sunni worldas evidenced by Gazan Hamas leader Ismail Haniyehs recent well-received tour of Turkey, Tunisia, Egypt, and Bahrain.
Israeli analyst Jonathan D. Halevi suggests Hamas is trying to implement the strategy of the Arab Spring in the Palestinian arena. On the background of the Islamist ascendancy in the region, Hamas sees its position among the Palestinians as strong and believes it will easily defeat Fatah in the elections envisaged by the Doha agreement.
If so, whats in it for Fatah? In Halevis view, its leaders have the same perception as Hamas and believe their brand of relatively secular nationalism is on the downswing in the West Bank and Gaza as in most of the Sunni Arab world. Hence, in signing the Doha agreement, the Fatah leaders prefer swimming with the currenttrying to hitch themselves to Hamas instead of fighting itto sinking beneath it.
The terms of the agreement seem to bear out that analysis. A new unity government of technocrats is supposed to be set up, with Abbas as prime ministerbut only for an interim stage. This governments main task would be preparing for presidential and parliamentary elections in the West Bank and Gaza. Since Abbas is currently president, his own rule would be on the line.
The Hamas-Fatah Reunion | FrontPage Magazine