Something has been bothering me lately and has challenged my base political beliefs is capitalism's ability to deal with the long term future as a valid economic system for us to follow. For those of you that do not know me I am an avid advocate for both free market capitalism in as pure a sense as we can reasonably attain and libertarian ideals. I do not believe government interference leads to desirable outcomes in most situations. There is a very long term problem that I face with this belief structure though.
The reality that we face today is that more and more sectors are being automated. Workers in these fields are becoming more and more productive as a result. This is, at its base, a very good thing as we are getting more out of our work we will have to do less of it. Hundreds of years ago work would have consumed virtually 100 percent of peoples time. Better tools, automation and increased productivity have allowed us a great deal of freedom in our lives where we are able to work far less and even have almost 40% of our population not working at all. This is a good thing.
The actual value of labor becomes a problem when you have so much productivity though. Increased productivity does not necessarily increase the value of labor even though that labor produces more goods. The increased productivity might do so IF you are not increasing the labor pool. As labor is a commodity like any other, steeply decreasing the number of jobs will devalue even skilled labor as everyone is pushed into those few remaining jobs. I think this is somewhat reflected in today's society as we see so many young people with degrees making very little - literally everyone needs a degree these day simply because there are so many people looking for those few jobs.
I think that we are coming to a tipping point though where labor is going to become so rare that a capitalist system can no longer be reasonably sustained. Automation has been occurring for a long time and it really has not been that big of an issue because there were always other areas that people could move into - more high tech jobs or entirely new industries created from such automation. That was all fine and well as long as the automated machines were simple and narrow. If you go to an assembly line where cars are manufactured you will see many machines that replaced many workers. Those machines, however, are a FAR cry from actual human labor. They are repetitive and can only do a single task though they do it well. There is no intelligence there.
Today, the automation is completely different. Machines are no longer simple minded or extremely narrow. Cars are already capable of being completely controlled by computers - the entire transportation industry essentially no longer needs people to move product. As soon as society catches up, you are going to see thousands of jobs gone from the transportation industry. Such vehicles do not sleep, require medical care breaks or 401K's and (most importantly) do not get in accidents. They are FAR cheaper and they are poised to replace the largest employment sector in the nation right now. Even pilots are essentially passengers on automated aircraft these days. Aircraft take off, fly to their destination and land without a single command from the pilot. And as a side bonus, they never crash into the side of a mountain when they get depressed.
So far these machines have been fairly narrow machines but the truth is that machines are even getting into skilled professional jobs like writing or doctors or even creative endeavors like composing music. They are expanding into those specialized sectors as well eliminating need for highly skilled labors as well. In the video below it talks about WATSON - a diagnosis machines that is superior to a doctor for basic diagnosis.
I think that it is a given that machines are going to take a huge chunk out of modern employment. The question that we face is how to deal with a population that is largely unemployed simply because there is little to no need for those jobs to exist. This is a given - we see it happening all around us. Can capitalism cope with the future or are we going to need to come up with something different?
The right seems married to capitalism to the point that there can be no other solution or economic method to follow. I think that it is folly to assume that such must be the case forever - eventually change will occur as it must. The left seems stuck in 'solutions' that do nothing but perpetuate a broken system. Infrastructure cannot employ the nation and raising minimum wage does nothing to address the fact that jobs will disappear. Even safety nets are rather misguided as the value of money adjusts to the number of pieces of paper that you force into everyone's pockets. Personally I think there might very well be a new economic system that is unlike anything that we have used thus far to replace the current system when that time comes.
I may have not articulated myself well here (and a lot of posters are going to trash this without even reading it) but I would like to hear some of your thoughts on what the future might hold and what you think it might take to get there.
I am particularly interested in
dblack Foxfyre
opinions here. Am I completely off base?
The reality that we face today is that more and more sectors are being automated. Workers in these fields are becoming more and more productive as a result. This is, at its base, a very good thing as we are getting more out of our work we will have to do less of it. Hundreds of years ago work would have consumed virtually 100 percent of peoples time. Better tools, automation and increased productivity have allowed us a great deal of freedom in our lives where we are able to work far less and even have almost 40% of our population not working at all. This is a good thing.
The actual value of labor becomes a problem when you have so much productivity though. Increased productivity does not necessarily increase the value of labor even though that labor produces more goods. The increased productivity might do so IF you are not increasing the labor pool. As labor is a commodity like any other, steeply decreasing the number of jobs will devalue even skilled labor as everyone is pushed into those few remaining jobs. I think this is somewhat reflected in today's society as we see so many young people with degrees making very little - literally everyone needs a degree these day simply because there are so many people looking for those few jobs.
I think that we are coming to a tipping point though where labor is going to become so rare that a capitalist system can no longer be reasonably sustained. Automation has been occurring for a long time and it really has not been that big of an issue because there were always other areas that people could move into - more high tech jobs or entirely new industries created from such automation. That was all fine and well as long as the automated machines were simple and narrow. If you go to an assembly line where cars are manufactured you will see many machines that replaced many workers. Those machines, however, are a FAR cry from actual human labor. They are repetitive and can only do a single task though they do it well. There is no intelligence there.
Today, the automation is completely different. Machines are no longer simple minded or extremely narrow. Cars are already capable of being completely controlled by computers - the entire transportation industry essentially no longer needs people to move product. As soon as society catches up, you are going to see thousands of jobs gone from the transportation industry. Such vehicles do not sleep, require medical care breaks or 401K's and (most importantly) do not get in accidents. They are FAR cheaper and they are poised to replace the largest employment sector in the nation right now. Even pilots are essentially passengers on automated aircraft these days. Aircraft take off, fly to their destination and land without a single command from the pilot. And as a side bonus, they never crash into the side of a mountain when they get depressed.
So far these machines have been fairly narrow machines but the truth is that machines are even getting into skilled professional jobs like writing or doctors or even creative endeavors like composing music. They are expanding into those specialized sectors as well eliminating need for highly skilled labors as well. In the video below it talks about WATSON - a diagnosis machines that is superior to a doctor for basic diagnosis.
I think that it is a given that machines are going to take a huge chunk out of modern employment. The question that we face is how to deal with a population that is largely unemployed simply because there is little to no need for those jobs to exist. This is a given - we see it happening all around us. Can capitalism cope with the future or are we going to need to come up with something different?
The right seems married to capitalism to the point that there can be no other solution or economic method to follow. I think that it is folly to assume that such must be the case forever - eventually change will occur as it must. The left seems stuck in 'solutions' that do nothing but perpetuate a broken system. Infrastructure cannot employ the nation and raising minimum wage does nothing to address the fact that jobs will disappear. Even safety nets are rather misguided as the value of money adjusts to the number of pieces of paper that you force into everyone's pockets. Personally I think there might very well be a new economic system that is unlike anything that we have used thus far to replace the current system when that time comes.
I may have not articulated myself well here (and a lot of posters are going to trash this without even reading it) but I would like to hear some of your thoughts on what the future might hold and what you think it might take to get there.
I am particularly interested in
dblack Foxfyre
opinions here. Am I completely off base?