The Fed is trying to get to 5% Without a Recession

william the wie

Gold Member
Nov 18, 2009
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That's 5% on the 10 year treasury which is the Fed's guesstimated GDP Growth number for this year. CBO, TOMB, the treasury and unofficial predictors are not all over the map but that is because of certain shared assumptions:

Regulations imposed by the courts and the Obama Administration are the major malfunction in the economy. Using executive orders and Judicial appointments Trump is reducing this problem on the national level but not on the state and local level.

The question is not whether federal regulation is the biggest problem with the post-Obama economy but whether it is first among equals, the plurality, the majority or the 500 lb gorilla of economic growth problems.

Reducing and to some extent simplifying the bite of the IRS could be nearly as important as deregulation or not. Given the very wide distribution of State And Local Taxes out migration from the high tax states could cause major problems fast.

Reducing immigration and making it merit based will permit faster wage growth. But it is already possible to find signs of wage push inflation in the economy and that is very bad news, if it continues past the catch up gains seen so far.

Also interest rate increases can harm financial markets if imposed too quickly. But what is too quickly? Too slow is also bad news because it feeds inflation. So what is too slow?

That's a whole bunch of questions that no one knows the exact answer to.
 

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