The Arctic is already effectively ice free

[mamooth]

The article in the OP makes some pretty bad mistakes. Some layman wrote it, and it does not describe what scientists say. 200 foot thick sea ice? That's complete nonsense. Expecting the entire Beaufort Sea to have 15-20 foot sea ice in the summer? No. Just no. The Beaufort Sea is the area north of the northeastern Alaskan Coast, and the Mackenzie delta area in Canada. It's not the high arctic. It freezes up each year, but only to 2-3 meters thick, and then most of it melts out in the summer.

So no, the arctic is not ice-free. Not even close. There's still plenty of thick ice in the high arctic, up above 80N. The icebreakers don't go there, even in summer.

So, what's "ice-free"? We'll probably never see every bit of ice melt over a summer in our lifetimes. "Ice-free" is now getting defined as "Less than 1.0 million square kilometers of sea ice area". That's compared to the record low 2012 minimum of 3.4 million square kilometers. We won't see 1 million soon, but I figure we'll get there by 2030.

Contrary to what the article says, 2012 was not an 'average' year. 2015 is an average year for melt. 2013 and 2014 were below-average years. 2012 was a year with near perfect melt conditions. The early sun was there to get melt ponds going, the winds pulled heat north, the ice export south through the Fram Strait was nonstop, and a late season large cyclone churned the weak ice into warm water. Like with temperatures, we'll keep seeing a general trend going one way. Eventually, another near-perfect year will arrive, and shatter the 2012 record, just as an exceptional year now is shattering the temperature record.

 

[defcon4]

"Meltwater from a Norwegian glacier: A Harvard geophysicist says that the cycle of ice ages and deglaciation is caused by slight tilts in Earth's axis.
These periods of deglaciation saw massive climate changes,' Huybers said. 'Sea level increased by 130 meters, temperatures rose by about 5 degrees C, and atmospheric CO2 went from 180 to 280 parts per million.'"
Natural tilts in earth s axis alter temperature enough to cause ice ages says Harvard scientist Daily Mail Online

The theory is that our ancestors a few millennia ago had too many camp fires going on at the same time generating a whole lot of CO2. So, by the decree of tribunal chiefs all campfires were extinguished to save Earth…and it worked!! (Italics are my comment)

 

[westwall]

We may not be controlling the weather, but we are definately changing it. From the increase in 100,000 acre fires from less than one per year to nearly 10 per year in the us in the last 20 years, to the decline of ice area and change in the type of ice in the Arctic, we are seeing those changes negatively affecting all of us. Those in denial, and those outright lying about the changes will delay any efforts to ameliorate the problems associated with the changes until they create catastrophes for a large number of people. I hope to be a leading voice is seeing that there is an accounting for this.

That's hilarious dude. The Forest Service has many papers showing that the increased fire size is due to poor forest management. Your problem is you have claimed so many things are caused by AGW that everyone knows that NOTHING is caused by AGW. The climate changes. It always has. Man's effect on it though, there is nothing to show that man has any but a very local (UHI) effect.

 

[Old Rocks]

"Meltwater from a Norwegian glacier: A Harvard geophysicist says that the cycle of ice ages and deglaciation is caused by slight tilts in Earth's axis.
These periods of deglaciation saw massive climate changes,' Huybers said. 'Sea level increased by 130 meters, temperatures rose by about 5 degrees C, and atmospheric CO2 went from 180 to 280 parts per million.'"
Natural tilts in earth s axis alter temperature enough to cause ice ages says Harvard scientist Daily Mail Online

The theory is that our ancestors a few millennia ago had too many camp fires going on at the same time generating a whole lot of CO2. So, by the decree of tribunal chiefs all campfires were extinguished to save Earth…and it worked!! (Italics are my comment)

A more general and correct hypothesis is that you are a brain dead troll. Look up Milankovic Cycles sometime.

 

[Old Rocks]

We may not be controlling the weather, but we are definately changing it. From the increase in 100,000 acre fires from less than one per year to nearly 10 per year in the us in the last 20 years, to the decline of ice area and change in the type of ice in the Arctic, we are seeing those changes negatively affecting all of us. Those in denial, and those outright lying about the changes will delay any efforts to ameliorate the problems associated with the changes until they create catastrophes for a large number of people. I hope to be a leading voice is seeing that there is an accounting for this.

That's hilarious dude. The Forest Service has many papers showing that the increased fire size is due to poor forest management. Your problem is you have claimed so many things are caused by AGW that everyone knows that NOTHING is caused by AGW. The climate changes. It always has. Man's effect on it though, there is nothing to show that man has any but a very local (UHI) effect.

And you are again a liar, Mr. Westwall. High temperatures and drought are the primary causes of the present fires. And poor forest management is a product of a Congress that gives x amount of money for fire figthing, knowing full well that the amount is far too small to do the job, then forces the Forest Service to take money out of the budget for managing the forests to fight the fires. Really, the Forest Service should just fight fires on public land, and the instant that it crosses the line, let whomevers property that is handle the fire at that point. Then see who is screaming.

 

[jc456]

Arctic Sea Ice and Al Gore s Prediction 2013
EXCERPT
Dr. Barber has been searching for 200-foot thick multiyear Arctic sea ice in the Beaufort Sea, an area of the Arctic Ocean that stretches for almost 1,000 miles along the coasts of Alaska and Canada.

For his research in summer 2010, he cruised through the Beaufort Sea in the ice breaker Amundsen and never did find that multiyear ice. What Barber's team did find was vastly different from what the satellites were telling them was there. They thought they would find 20- to 30-foot thick multiyear ice covering 7 percent to 9 percent of the Beaufort Sea.

Instead, they found 25 percent open water and very small remnant multiyear and first-year floes interspersed with thin new ice in between. Unfortunately, these satellite errors are not in our favor. The problem is because these conditions are new. They simply have not existed before, so there was no way to test for them and know that this sea icescape looks, to the eye of the satellite, exactly like a sea icescape that is thick and solid.7

The ice the Amundsen encountered was so rotten that it did not impede the forward progress of the ship. What they found was hundreds of miles of what Barber called "rotten ice." This was 20-inch layers of fresh ice covering small chunks of older ice.8This discovery came as a great surprise to this researcher as he cruised through the rotten ice of the Beaufort Sea at 14 miles per hour (the top speed of his vessel in open water is 15 miles per hour). The Amundsen was designed to break 1-meter thick sea ice (3.3 feet) at 3.4 miles per hour. The ice they found was so rotten that the Amundsen could break 19 to 26 feet of rotten multiyear ice at 5.7 miles per hour.9

EXCERPT
"Ship navigation across the pole is imminent as the type of ice which resides there is no longer a barrier to [normal] ships in the late summer and fall,"10

"If you want to ship across the pole, you're concerned about multiyear sea ice. You're not concerned about this rotten stuff we we're doing 13 knots through. It's easy to navigate through. I would argue that we almost have a seasonally ice-free Arctic now, because multiyear sea ice is the barrier to the use and development of the Arctic."11

The entire human race is about to face the most radical change in lifestyle it has ever seen. Most people are oblivious to it but it is near. Global Warming is right at the spot where we won't be able to reverse it, if we haven't already done past it. Once Runaway Global Warming begins the game is over.

There have been 5 major mass extinctions in the history of life on Earth, we are now in well into the beginning of the 6th.

Because governments around the world are generally run by the wealthy that don't want to give up their revenue streams, the rest of humanity will pay the price for the greed of these very few scumbags.

Of course the moment will come when the masses DO figure out how horrendous life is going to get and guess who they will be pointing at to string up on the maypole.

right, based on what? What evidence do you have that shows that a radical change is a comin?

 

[jc456]

Mr. CrusaderFrank, you are such a stupid ass I normally ignore your posts. However, your claim of lack of evidence to support my claims is so ridiculous that I have to answer it. Let's look at just fires. How many 100,000 acre fires in just Alaska right now? How many thousands of people evacuated from their homes because of fires in the US right now? What is the present fire danger in the Western US right now?

As far as the OP goes, those finding were presented in a paper, and were not contested. After all, it was not just one scientist, but a number of them on that ship, and they had photos and the ships records. Your claim of no evidence is just so idiotic. More flap-yap from a mindless loser.

zero evidence, I'll make the same claim friend.

 

[jc456]

What's "unknown"? Your stupid theory is that a wisp of CO2 is generating all this "Excess heat", show us! That's science.

My theory? Certainly doesn't appear to be my theory at all.

What are you basing any of this on, for it to be my theory?

you believe in it correct?

 

[jc456]

The idea that you think we can control the weather......

We think we can control things more than we can.

Many people are taking a bet on the fact that the weather won't suddenly go a little AWOL in terms of what is good for humans on this planet. Therefore they say that pumping a Greenhouse gas into the atmosphere at unprecedented rates won't actually do anything bad for us.

When, or if, this turns out not to be the case, we can't go back. Is it worth the risk? Oh, and all for a little more profit.

again, there is no evidence to support that statement about weather suddenly go a little AWOL. Where is weather different? Just name somewhere.

 

[jc456]

What's "unknown"? Your stupid theory is that a wisp of CO2 is generating all this "Excess heat", show us! That's science.

My theory? Certainly doesn't appear to be my theory at all.

What are you basing any of this on, for it to be my theory?

Did you sign up with Manmade climate change theory?

Depends what the "Manmade climate change theory" is. You're being rather specific.

Maybe I can make this easier for you. I look at the evidence, and I make a judgement on what I think is happening.

what evidence are you looking at?

 

[jc456]

My God......Frank.......these people are disturbed beyond help!!!

The next blizzard here in the northeast, they will say, "Thats not really snow you see.......its rain tinted white!!"


"rotten snow"

no this guy will call it weather gone AWOL!!!!

LOL

 

[ScienceRocks]

My God......Frank.......these people are disturbed beyond help!!!

The next blizzard here in the northeast, they will say, "Thats not really snow you see.......its rain tinted white!!"


"rotten snow"

no this guy will call it weather gone AWOL!!!!

LOL

It is all about the extremes...the cold the northeast has been seeing is part of a meteorological set up.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

We may not be controlling the weather, but we are definately changing it. From the increase in 100,000 acre fires from less than one per year to nearly 10 per year in the us in the last 20 years, to the decline of ice area and change in the type of ice in the Arctic, we are seeing those changes negatively affecting all of us. Those in denial, and those outright lying about the changes will delay any efforts to ameliorate the problems associated with the changes until they create catastrophes for a large number of people. I hope to be a leading voice is seeing that there is an accounting for this.

That's hilarious dude. The Forest Service has many papers showing that the increased fire size is due to poor forest management. Your problem is you have claimed so many things are caused by AGW that everyone knows that NOTHING is caused by AGW. The climate changes. It always has. Man's effect on it though, there is nothing to show that man has any but a very local (UHI) effect.

And you are again a liar, Mr. Westwall. High temperatures and drought are the primary causes of the present fires. And poor forest management is a product of a Congress that gives x amount of money for fire figthing, knowing full well that the amount is far too small to do the job, then forces the Forest Service to take money out of the budget for managing the forests to fight the fires. Really, the Forest Service should just fight fires on public land, and the instant that it crosses the line, let whomevers property that is handle the fire at that point. Then see who is screaming.

Can show us how a wisp of CO2 acts as a lense to concentrate the suns rays to start a forest fire?

 

[CrusaderFrank]

My God......Frank.......these people are disturbed beyond help!!!

The next blizzard here in the northeast, they will say, "Thats not really snow you see.......its rain tinted white!!"


"rotten snow"

no this guy will call it weather gone AWOL!!!!

LOL

It is all about the extremes...the cold the northeast has been seeing is part of a meteorological set up.

Yet you're still posting. One can only conclude that either AGW is fake or people really can't do anything about it

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Soooooo, what's the forest fire temperature? 84? 93? 94?

 

[westwall]

We may not be controlling the weather, but we are definately changing it. From the increase in 100,000 acre fires from less than one per year to nearly 10 per year in the us in the last 20 years, to the decline of ice area and change in the type of ice in the Arctic, we are seeing those changes negatively affecting all of us. Those in denial, and those outright lying about the changes will delay any efforts to ameliorate the problems associated with the changes until they create catastrophes for a large number of people. I hope to be a leading voice is seeing that there is an accounting for this.

That's hilarious dude. The Forest Service has many papers showing that the increased fire size is due to poor forest management. Your problem is you have claimed so many things are caused by AGW that everyone knows that NOTHING is caused by AGW. The climate changes. It always has. Man's effect on it though, there is nothing to show that man has any but a very local (UHI) effect.

And you are again a liar, Mr. Westwall. High temperatures and drought are the primary causes of the present fires. And poor forest management is a product of a Congress that gives x amount of money for fire figthing, knowing full well that the amount is far too small to do the job, then forces the Forest Service to take money out of the budget for managing the forests to fight the fires. Really, the Forest Service should just fight fires on public land, and the instant that it crosses the line, let whomevers property that is handle the fire at that point. Then see who is screaming.

Nope. They're not. In fact in California fires are so common that the local sage brush requires fires as a part of its life cycle. No fires, no sage. You should look it up. It's called SCIENCE.

 

[sakinago]

Arctic Sea Ice and Al Gore s Prediction 2013
EXCERPT
Dr. Barber has been searching for 200-foot thick multiyear Arctic sea ice in the Beaufort Sea, an area of the Arctic Ocean that stretches for almost 1,000 miles along the coasts of Alaska and Canada.

For his research in summer 2010, he cruised through the Beaufort Sea in the ice breaker Amundsen and never did find that multiyear ice. What Barber's team did find was vastly different from what the satellites were telling them was there. They thought they would find 20- to 30-foot thick multiyear ice covering 7 percent to 9 percent of the Beaufort Sea.

Instead, they found 25 percent open water and very small remnant multiyear and first-year floes interspersed with thin new ice in between. Unfortunately, these satellite errors are not in our favor. The problem is because these conditions are new. They simply have not existed before, so there was no way to test for them and know that this sea icescape looks, to the eye of the satellite, exactly like a sea icescape that is thick and solid.7

The ice the Amundsen encountered was so rotten that it did not impede the forward progress of the ship. What they found was hundreds of miles of what Barber called "rotten ice." This was 20-inch layers of fresh ice covering small chunks of older ice.8This discovery came as a great surprise to this researcher as he cruised through the rotten ice of the Beaufort Sea at 14 miles per hour (the top speed of his vessel in open water is 15 miles per hour). The Amundsen was designed to break 1-meter thick sea ice (3.3 feet) at 3.4 miles per hour. The ice they found was so rotten that the Amundsen could break 19 to 26 feet of rotten multiyear ice at 5.7 miles per hour.9

EXCERPT
"Ship navigation across the pole is imminent as the type of ice which resides there is no longer a barrier to [normal] ships in the late summer and fall,"10

"If you want to ship across the pole, you're concerned about multiyear sea ice. You're not concerned about this rotten stuff we we're doing 13 knots through. It's easy to navigate through. I would argue that we almost have a seasonally ice-free Arctic now, because multiyear sea ice is the barrier to the use and development of the Arctic."11

The entire human race is about to face the most radical change in lifestyle it has ever seen. Most people are oblivious to it but it is near. Global Warming is right at the spot where we won't be able to reverse it, if we haven't already done past it. Once Runaway Global Warming begins the game is over.

There have been 5 major mass extinctions in the history of life on Earth, we are now in well into the beginning of the 6th.

Because governments around the world are generally run by the wealthy that don't want to give up their revenue streams, the rest of humanity will pay the price for the greed of these very few scumbags.

Of course the moment will come when the masses DO figure out how horrendous life is going to get and guess who they will be pointing at to string up on the maypole.

Well let's hope this new wave of Ebola takes out more, better them than us right.

 

[jc456]

Arctic Sea Ice and Al Gore s Prediction 2013
EXCERPT
Dr. Barber has been searching for 200-foot thick multiyear Arctic sea ice in the Beaufort Sea, an area of the Arctic Ocean that stretches for almost 1,000 miles along the coasts of Alaska and Canada.

For his research in summer 2010, he cruised through the Beaufort Sea in the ice breaker Amundsen and never did find that multiyear ice. What Barber's team did find was vastly different from what the satellites were telling them was there. They thought they would find 20- to 30-foot thick multiyear ice covering 7 percent to 9 percent of the Beaufort Sea.

Instead, they found 25 percent open water and very small remnant multiyear and first-year floes interspersed with thin new ice in between. Unfortunately, these satellite errors are not in our favor. The problem is because these conditions are new. They simply have not existed before, so there was no way to test for them and know that this sea icescape looks, to the eye of the satellite, exactly like a sea icescape that is thick and solid.7

The ice the Amundsen encountered was so rotten that it did not impede the forward progress of the ship. What they found was hundreds of miles of what Barber called "rotten ice." This was 20-inch layers of fresh ice covering small chunks of older ice.8This discovery came as a great surprise to this researcher as he cruised through the rotten ice of the Beaufort Sea at 14 miles per hour (the top speed of his vessel in open water is 15 miles per hour). The Amundsen was designed to break 1-meter thick sea ice (3.3 feet) at 3.4 miles per hour. The ice they found was so rotten that the Amundsen could break 19 to 26 feet of rotten multiyear ice at 5.7 miles per hour.9

EXCERPT
"Ship navigation across the pole is imminent as the type of ice which resides there is no longer a barrier to [normal] ships in the late summer and fall,"10

"If you want to ship across the pole, you're concerned about multiyear sea ice. You're not concerned about this rotten stuff we we're doing 13 knots through. It's easy to navigate through. I would argue that we almost have a seasonally ice-free Arctic now, because multiyear sea ice is the barrier to the use and development of the Arctic."11

The entire human race is about to face the most radical change in lifestyle it has ever seen. Most people are oblivious to it but it is near. Global Warming is right at the spot where we won't be able to reverse it, if we haven't already done past it. Once Runaway Global Warming begins the game is over.

There have been 5 major mass extinctions in the history of life on Earth, we are now in well into the beginning of the 6th.

Because governments around the world are generally run by the wealthy that don't want to give up their revenue streams, the rest of humanity will pay the price for the greed of these very few scumbags.

Of course the moment will come when the masses DO figure out how horrendous life is going to get and guess who they will be pointing at to string up on the maypole.

Well let's hope this new wave of Ebola takes out more, better them than us right.

And there's the trump card! LOL.

 

[Crick]

The article in the OP makes some pretty bad mistakes. Some layman wrote it, and it does not describe what scientists say. 200 foot thick sea ice? That's complete nonsense. Expecting the entire Beaufort Sea to have 15-20 foot sea ice in the summer? No. Just no. The Beaufort Sea is the area north of the northeastern Alaskan Coast, and the Mackenzie delta area in Canada. It's not the high arctic. It freezes up each year, but only to 2-3 meters thick, and then most of it melts out in the summer.

So no, the arctic is not ice-free. Not even close. There's still plenty of thick ice in the high arctic, up above 80N. The icebreakers don't go there, even in summer.

So, what's "ice-free"? We'll probably never see every bit of ice melt over a summer in our lifetimes. "Ice-free" is now getting defined as "Less than 1.0 million square kilometers of sea ice area". That's compared to the record low 2012 minimum of 3.4 million square kilometers. We won't see 1 million soon, but I figure we'll get there by 2030.

Contrary to what the article says, 2012 was not an 'average' year. 2015 is an average year for melt. 2013 and 2014 were below-average years. 2012 was a year with near perfect melt conditions. The early sun was there to get melt ponds going, the winds pulled heat north, the ice export south through the Fram Strait was nonstop, and a late season large cyclone churned the weak ice into warm water. Like with temperatures, we'll keep seeing a general trend going one way. Eventually, another near-perfect year will arrive, and shatter the 2012 record, just as an exceptional year now is shattering the temperature record.

The man searching for 200 foot ice was David Barber, professor of environment and geography, Canada's research chair in Arctic system science and director of the Centre for Earth Observation Science (CEOS) at the University of Manitoba, in Winnipeg.

 

[Billy_Bob]

Arctic Sea Ice and Al Gore s Prediction 2013
EXCERPT
Dr. Barber has been searching for 200-foot thick multiyear Arctic sea ice in the Beaufort Sea, an area of the Arctic Ocean that stretches for almost 1,000 miles along the coasts of Alaska and Canada.

For his research in summer 2010, he cruised through the Beaufort Sea in the ice breaker Amundsen and never did find that multiyear ice. What Barber's team did find was vastly different from what the satellites were telling them was there. They thought they would find 20- to 30-foot thick multiyear ice covering 7 percent to 9 percent of the Beaufort Sea.

Instead, they found 25 percent open water and very small remnant multiyear and first-year floes interspersed with thin new ice in between. Unfortunately, these satellite errors are not in our favor. The problem is because these conditions are new. They simply have not existed before, so there was no way to test for them and know that this sea icescape looks, to the eye of the satellite, exactly like a sea icescape that is thick and solid.7

The ice the Amundsen encountered was so rotten that it did not impede the forward progress of the ship. What they found was hundreds of miles of what Barber called "rotten ice." This was 20-inch layers of fresh ice covering small chunks of older ice.8This discovery came as a great surprise to this researcher as he cruised through the rotten ice of the Beaufort Sea at 14 miles per hour (the top speed of his vessel in open water is 15 miles per hour). The Amundsen was designed to break 1-meter thick sea ice (3.3 feet) at 3.4 miles per hour. The ice they found was so rotten that the Amundsen could break 19 to 26 feet of rotten multiyear ice at 5.7 miles per hour.9

EXCERPT
"Ship navigation across the pole is imminent as the type of ice which resides there is no longer a barrier to [normal] ships in the late summer and fall,"10

"If you want to ship across the pole, you're concerned about multiyear sea ice. You're not concerned about this rotten stuff we we're doing 13 knots through. It's easy to navigate through. I would argue that we almost have a seasonally ice-free Arctic now, because multiyear sea ice is the barrier to the use and development of the Arctic."11

The entire human race is about to face the most radical change in lifestyle it has ever seen. Most people are oblivious to it but it is near. Global Warming is right at the spot where we won't be able to reverse it, if we haven't already done past it. Once Runaway Global Warming begins the game is over.

There have been 5 major mass extinctions in the history of life on Earth, we are now in well into the beginning of the 6th.

Because governments around the world are generally run by the wealthy that don't want to give up their revenue streams, the rest of humanity will pay the price for the greed of these very few scumbags.

Of course the moment will come when the masses DO figure out how horrendous life is going to get and guess who they will be pointing at to string up on the maypole.

Tell that to the Romans. It was at least 2 degrees warmer during the Roman Warming Period and civilization blossomed. You clowns haven't got a fucking clue of what you are speaking of. Try reading some history instead of your science fiction.

You might actually learn something.

The problem isn't being 2 degrees warmer. The problem is when it becomes a runaway train that we can't ever hope to stop.

Runaway temp is a lie... The convection cycle would have to be reduced by 75% in order for earths temp to runaway..and it would have to be replaced by a gas that blocks further convection from working.