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Ominous Numbers for Obama
By GENE EPSTEIN | MORE ARTICLES BY AUTHOR
An index based on joblessness and consumer spending isn't saying good things about the president's chances of re-election.
Will the economy (stupid) again determine the outcome of a presidential election? Based on two important economic measures that I've examined and their relationship to the presidential races since 1956, Obama supporters have cause to worry.
All but the most recent of those races featured an incumbent, whether it was a sitting president (nine races out of 13) or a vice president seeking to move into the Oval Office (four out of 13). Based on consumer spending and unemployment—the two variables I tracked—Obama probably would have lost had he run for re-election this past November.
The numbers have improved since then, but not enough to tip the odds in the president's favor. (See summary data in the table below.)
Is It the Economy, Stupid?
Year
Incumbent/VP
VEWB*
Result
1956
Dwight D. Eisenhower
-0.6
Won
1960
Richard Nixon
-2.2
Lost
1964
Lyndon B. Johnson
3.6
Won
1968
Hubert Humphrey
5
Lost
1972
Richard Nixon
4.3
Won
1976
Gerald Ford
1
Lost
1980
Jimmy Carter
-4
Lost
1984
Ronald Reagan
0
Won
1988
George H. W. Bush
0.8
Won
1992
George H. W. Bush
-1.3
Lost
1996
Bill Clinton
0.5
Won
2000
Al Gore
2.6
Lost
2004
George W. Bush
0
Won
2011
Barack Obama
-3.9
*Voters' Economic Well-Being = Consumer spending growth minus the jobless rate
Ominous Numbers for Obama - Barrons.com
Ooooooooooooooooooops!!
By GENE EPSTEIN | MORE ARTICLES BY AUTHOR
An index based on joblessness and consumer spending isn't saying good things about the president's chances of re-election.
Will the economy (stupid) again determine the outcome of a presidential election? Based on two important economic measures that I've examined and their relationship to the presidential races since 1956, Obama supporters have cause to worry.
All but the most recent of those races featured an incumbent, whether it was a sitting president (nine races out of 13) or a vice president seeking to move into the Oval Office (four out of 13). Based on consumer spending and unemployment—the two variables I tracked—Obama probably would have lost had he run for re-election this past November.
The numbers have improved since then, but not enough to tip the odds in the president's favor. (See summary data in the table below.)
Is It the Economy, Stupid?
Year
Incumbent/VP
VEWB*
Result
1956
Dwight D. Eisenhower
-0.6
Won
1960
Richard Nixon
-2.2
Lost
1964
Lyndon B. Johnson
3.6
Won
1968
Hubert Humphrey
5
Lost
1972
Richard Nixon
4.3
Won
1976
Gerald Ford
1
Lost
1980
Jimmy Carter
-4
Lost
1984
Ronald Reagan
0
Won
1988
George H. W. Bush
0.8
Won
1992
George H. W. Bush
-1.3
Lost
1996
Bill Clinton
0.5
Won
2000
Al Gore
2.6
Lost
2004
George W. Bush
0
Won
2011
Barack Obama
-3.9
*Voters' Economic Well-Being = Consumer spending growth minus the jobless rate
Ominous Numbers for Obama - Barrons.com
Ooooooooooooooooooops!!
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