Sabato still feels Clinton will pull it off.

Discussion in 'Election Forums' started by JimH52, Nov 3, 2016.

  1. JimH52
    Offline

    JimH52 Gold Member

    Joined:
    Oct 14, 2007
    Messages:
    21,772
    Thanks Received:
    3,502
    Trophy Points:
    290
    Location:
    US
    Ratings:
    +10,956
    http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/


    Therefore, while Democrats are quite right to be nervous about the outcome, we as handicappers do not at this point believe there is enough of a compelling argument to believe that the race is truly a Toss-up, let alone that Trump is favored. Does that mean Trump can’t win? Of course not: If some of the national tracking polls showing a tie, like surveys from ABC News/Washington Post and IBD-TIPP, are correct, than the election may truly be something of a jump ball, because in a tied national race we don’t see any additional “blue wall” defense for Clinton in the Electoral College. In a very close or tied national race, states like Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and others could become Toss-ups too. We just don’t think that’s where we’re at, and state-level polling continues to show Clinton leading in all of those vital states.
    _________________________________________________________________________

    If Trump can reach no higher than 35% chance at fivethrityeight.com by the end of the weekend, Hillary surviving the Comey effect, then she should be okay.
     
  2. Jackson
    Offline

    Jackson Gold Member Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Dec 31, 2010
    Messages:
    21,901
    Thanks Received:
    5,318
    Trophy Points:
    290
    Location:
    Nashville
    Ratings:
    +15,115
    Another interesting tidbit...should Hillary win the election, there are still 63 days before she takes office. Is that enough time for an investigation and Grand Jury Indictment?
     

Share This Page