RTÉ reporting: gay marriage referendum expected to pass by 2:1 margin

[Statistikhengst]

I am told they call themselves either the YES team/coalition or the NO team/coalition.

This is the exact wording of the Constitutional Amendment:

"Marriage may be contracted in accordance with law by two persons without distinction as to their sex".

Agree (yes) / disagree (no)



Here is the link for the actual statistics:

Same-Sex Marriage Referendum - RT News


Currently, as of 16:25, GMT +1:

That's only 5 of 43 "districts", if you will, but the results are looking to be pretty consistent.

Here a normal land-map of Ireland:

And a population density map of Ireland:

So, Sligo, Cork (2nd largest city), Navan and Waterford are in. Dublin (largest city in Ireland) is not in yet and is expected to go roughly 70/30 for SSM. Castle Durrow, Limerick (third largest city), Dundalk, Galway (4th largest city), Drogheda, Clonmel and Tralee have yet to report in.

It is reported that 3.2 million votes were cast in the referendum. Update: a German radio station just reported 2.3 million ballots cast. One of those two sources has it backwards.

More details as the day progresses. Since the referendum is obviously winning in more rural areas, there is no doubt it is going to pass today.

What may be surprising is the very, very large blowout margin that is developing.

Ireland has an interesting system of elections, especially, the vote counting part. They do it the next day.

Oh, and there are a couple of other referendums also on the ballot:

Irish constitutional referendums 2015 - Wikipedia the free encyclopedia

One is to reduce the voting age from 18 to 16.

 

[Statistikhengst]

For instance, the large county under Dublin, Wicklow County, with a number of smaller towns and lots of rural vote, is in:

That is 68.36% for SSM from Wicklow County.

 

[Katzndogz]

Perhaps we should have such a referendum here.

 

[Statistikhengst]

The collar counties around Dublin are in, and the statistic is remaining amazingly stable:

So, 150,000 votes later, the picture is almost identical: 63% to 37%. When Dublin comes in, this is going to shoot over 66% and then move back to 64% or 65% when the totally rural areas come in. That's my bet.

8 of 43 "counties" (or districts) in.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Combined, Ireland and N. Ireland have 6.4 million citizens.

In terms of population, were Ireland a state within the USA, it would fall between Missouri and Tennessee (roughly 10 EV in the EC).

In terms of area, though, Ireland, with 84,421 sq. KM, is slightly larger than the state of Maine (79,883 sq. KM).

So, Ireland is pretty densely populated, especially on the eastern and southern coasts.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Some of the most rural parts of Ireland just came in:

That makes it 61% to 39%, but remember, Dublin, with 1.1 million inhabitants, is not in yet. This reflects another jump of 150,000 votes and the total is now 1/5 of the expected electorate that votes (roughly 20%).

 

[Statistikhengst]

Perhaps we should have such a referendum here.

Beware what you ask for. I doubt you would like the results.

 

[Statistikhengst]

2 districts from within Dublin have now reported in (Dublin Midwest, Dublin Southwest):

Back up to 62% to 38%.

A jump of 190,000 votes, 15 of 43 districts, about 23% of the total vote is now in. The core of Dublin is not in yet.

 

[Katzndogz]

Ireland will finally live down its reputation of the land of bare knuckle brawlers!

 

[Statistikhengst]

So, a lot more of the rural and highland vote, plus Dublin-West just came in:

61.5% to 38.5%.

A little less than 1/3 of the total vote is in. When the other 9 Dublin districts come in, that is more than 1/3 of the total vote right there, will bring us to about 75% of the total vote. So, the cluster of counties you see to the right, physically separated from the main landmass (but not so in real-life), Dublin, will be about 1/4 to 1/3 of the national vote.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Finally, a district where the referendum failed: Roscommon-South Leitrim (about 36,500 votes total, or a little more than 1% of the total national vote):

In detail for this district:

61% to 39%. The vast majority of Dublin is still not in.

The referendum has passed in 23 of 24 districts now counted.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Dublin South-East just came in, came in 75-25 for SSM, as predicted:

And in detail:

Overal, back to 62% to 38%. 26 of 43 districts are in.

Off to some evening appointments, will report more later.

But the 12 outstanding deeply rural areas will barely match Dublin central - they will more than cancel each other out.

It should land between 64-65% when all is said and done, barring any weirdness in Dublin.

Later gators.

 

[Pogo]

I am told they call themselves either the YES team/coalition or the NO team/coalition.

This is the exact wording of the Constitutional Amendment:

"Marriage may be contracted in accordance with law by two persons without distinction as to their sex".

Agree (yes) / disagree (no)



Here is the link for the actual statistics:

Same-Sex Marriage Referendum - RT News


Currently, as of 16:25, GMT +1:

View attachment 41601

That's only 5 of 43 "districts", if you will, but the results are looking to be pretty consistent.

Here a normal land-map of Ireland:

And a population density map of Ireland:

So, Sligo, Cork (2nd largest city), Navan and Waterford are in. Dublin (largest city in Ireland) is not in yet and is expected to go roughly 70/30 for SSM. Castle Durrow, Limerick (third largest city), Dundalk, Galway (4th largest city), Drogheda, Clonmel and Tralee have yet to report in.

It is reported that 3.2 million votes were cast in the referendum.

More details as the day progresses. Since the referendum is obviously winning in more rural areas, there is no doubt it is going to pass today.

What may be surprising is the very, very large blowout margin that is developing.

Ireland has an interesting system of elections, especially, the vote counting part. They do it the next day.

Oh, and there are a couple of other referendums also on the ballot:

Irish constitutional referendums 2015 - Wikipedia the free encyclopedia

One is to reduce the voting age from 18 to 16.

Galway's an awesome culturally rich city. I expect it will mirror Dublin.

 

[Statistikhengst]

I am told they call themselves either the YES team/coalition or the NO team/coalition.

This is the exact wording of the Constitutional Amendment:

"Marriage may be contracted in accordance with law by two persons without distinction as to their sex".

Agree (yes) / disagree (no)



Here is the link for the actual statistics:

Same-Sex Marriage Referendum - RT News


Currently, as of 16:25, GMT +1:

View attachment 41601

That's only 5 of 43 "districts", if you will, but the results are looking to be pretty consistent.

Here a normal land-map of Ireland:

And a population density map of Ireland:

So, Sligo, Cork (2nd largest city), Navan and Waterford are in. Dublin (largest city in Ireland) is not in yet and is expected to go roughly 70/30 for SSM. Castle Durrow, Limerick (third largest city), Dundalk, Galway (4th largest city), Drogheda, Clonmel and Tralee have yet to report in.

It is reported that 3.2 million votes were cast in the referendum.

More details as the day progresses. Since the referendum is obviously winning in more rural areas, there is no doubt it is going to pass today.

What may be surprising is the very, very large blowout margin that is developing.

Ireland has an interesting system of elections, especially, the vote counting part. They do it the next day.

Oh, and there are a couple of other referendums also on the ballot:

Irish constitutional referendums 2015 - Wikipedia the free encyclopedia

One is to reduce the voting age from 18 to 16.

Galway's an awesome culturally rich city. I expect it will mirror Dublin.

I'll check it out later.

Gesendet von meinem GT-I9515 mit Tapatalk

 

[hipeter924]

Another update, just about complete, just three to go:

 

[hipeter924]

It is complete:

Ireland's referendum supports same-sex marriage.

 

[Katzndogz]

What a shame for the Irish. They may have had their faults, but they certainly didn't deserve this.

 

[Pogo]

What a shame for the Irish. They may have had their faults, but they certainly didn't deserve this.

Didn't deserve what?

A popular vote on their own issues?

 

[Statistikhengst]

So, this map explains part of why I took so much time to report the results of a referendum that was obviously on its way to winning:

On the map on the left, Ireland as we know it. See the clump of super dark green "constituencies" (voting districts) on the East Coast of Ireland? That's Dublin.

When the map is morphed to show the actual constituencies based on population, then all of a sudden, Dublin becomes about 1/2 of Ireland, for all intents and purposes. And the one constituency where the referendum failed, a very rural and sparsely populated constituency, becomes a lot, lot smaller.

Once again, as I have written many, many times on many, many election threads, people should never confuse geography with population density. Alone Los Angeles county has more people in it than the 8 smallest red states in the USA. I would wager that most people in USMB do not know this fact. Yes, Los Angeles County, were it a state on it's own, would be as large as the 8 smallest red states combined.

And on election nights like 2012, this explains why Obama and Romney could appear to be even with each other, but Obama still had the decisive edge: because the very large cities tend to report in later than the rural areas, for very obvious reasons - many, many more ballots to count and verify.

 

[PaintMyHouse]

What a shame for the Irish. They may have had their faults, but they certainly didn't deserve this.

Yes, equality for gays, how tragic, for you that is.