Recession, the definition

[Toro]

From my experience by the time a critical mass of economists officially declare a recession we are already either actually out of it or have already long the turned the corner.....

There's truth to this, and it is acknowledged by economists.

 

[BruceWayne]

Since apparently nobody here knows what it means:

"An extended decline in general business activity, typically two consecutive quarters of falling real gross national product."

recession - Definitions from Dictionary.com

NOW....have we had two consecutive quarters of FALLING REAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT???

Why no, we haven't. I guess we aren't in a recession.

Economic numbers are often revised months after the fact as more information has come in. Often, you do not know for certain that you were in a recession until after it is over.

 

[Charles_Main]

From my experience by the time a critical mass of economists officially declare a recession we are already either actually out of it or have already long the turned the corner.....

That is actually true because a Recession is actually declared after the fact in most cases.

 

[Paulie]

So let's just keep pretending we're not in one while our government encourages us to spend spend spend.

 

[editec]

ZOOMIE opined...

Yea, so what? All of that is a GOOD thing. We are purging our economy of its excesses and there is always pain in that.

As to a recession cleaning out the deadwood and excesses?

My aren't you a hard headed realist.

I'm sure we're all impressed by such pragmatism.

One of these days, when the Gods of eonomics turn you into excess, you'll better understand why recessions are not exactly the wonderful cleansing treatment you seem to think they are now.

edited to give credit where credit is due

 

[Charles_Main]

In ALL cases.

As to a recession cleaning out the deadwood and excesses?

My aren't you a hard headed realist.

I'm sure we're all impressed by such pragmatism.

One of these days, when the Gods of eonomics turn you into excess, you'll better understand why recessions are not exactly the wonderful cleansing treatment you seem to think they are now.

Umm you might want to quote the guy who said Recessions clean out the Deadwood and Excess. By only quoting me and answering me and him, it makes it look like I said that, when I did not.

So for the record people, The only comment I made was to say Recessions are usually determined after the fact. The rest of his quote, I am not sure who said it, but it was not me.

 

[editec]

Umm you might want to quote the guy who said Recessions clean out the Deadwood and Excess. By only quoting me and answering me and him, it makes it look like I said that, when I did not.

So for the record people, The only comment I made was to say Recessions are usually determined after the fact. The rest of his quote, I am not sure who said it, but it was not me.

Yeah...sorry. Don't know how that happened, Charles.

 

[Paulie]

Editec, the pain and suffering that comes with a recession is a necessary evil to teach society the lessons of malinvestment, bad business decisions, poor budgeting, etc.

When government intervention comes in and "avoids" a recession through regulation and legislation, not only do we lose another piece of our freedom, we lose the ability to learn from our mistakes. It creates moral hazard, more socialism, and a false sense of protection, because many recessions that DO happen are a product of something that was done previously to try and avoid a PAST one.

 

[sealybobo]

Editec, the pain and suffering that comes with a recession is a necessary evil to teach society the lessons of malinvestment, bad business decisions, poor budgeting, etc.

When government intervention comes in and "avoids" a recession through regulation and legislation, not only do we lose another piece of our freedom, we lose the ability to learn from our mistakes. It creates moral hazard, more socialism, and a false sense of protection, because many recessions that DO happen are a product of something that was done previously to try and avoid a PAST one.

The mortgage lenders that processed our loans taught the big banks a lession when they passed on all those bad loans. But they just got bailed out by the federal reserve. But yes, people learned a lession. Never let the gop be the president or majority in either house. They will teach us more lessions.

 

[jreeves]

The mortgage lenders that processed our loans taught the big banks a lession when they passed on all those bad loans. But they just got bailed out by the federal reserve. But yes, people learned a lession. Never let the gop be the president or majority in either house. They will teach us more lessions.

They would be well served not to put too much stock in someone that spells lessons, lessions either....

 

[Charles_Main]

they Would Be Well Served Not To Put Too Much Stock In Someone That Spells Lessons, Lessions Either....

Roflmao!!!

 

[Chris]

Editec, the pain and suffering that comes with a recession is a necessary evil to teach society the lessons of malinvestment, bad business decisions, poor budgeting, etc.

When government intervention comes in and "avoids" a recession through regulation and legislation, not only do we lose another piece of our freedom, we lose the ability to learn from our mistakes. It creates moral hazard, more socialism, and a false sense of protection, because many recessions that DO happen are a product of something that was done previously to try and avoid a PAST one.

Recessions teach the lesson of bad decisions?

Like the decision to elect George Bush?

 

[Zoomie1980]

Recessions teach the lesson of bad decisions?

Like the decision to elect George Bush?

Every two term President has had a recession on their watch. Eisenhower had a big one on his watch, Nixon, likewise. The worst recession since the Great Depression was the one in the early 80's during Regan's term as he shifted the economy to a supply side model. Clinton had two, one at the very beginning he inherited from Bush Sr. and one at the end he gave to Bush Jr that got intensified by 9/11. And now Bush has one of his own. The next two termer is GUARANTEED to have one, no matter which party he or she comes from.

 

[editec]

Editec, the pain and suffering that comes with a recession is a necessary evil to teach society the lessons of malinvestment, bad business decisions, poor budgeting, etc.

Sadly, Paulitec, the wrong people often pay for the mistakes. What lesson is learned other than the poor pay for the mistakes of the wealthy?

People go to work, do their jobs and poof! their jobs are gone.

When government intervention comes in and "avoids" a recession through regulation and legislation, not only do we lose another piece of our freedom, we lose the ability to learn from our mistakes. It creates moral hazard, more socialism, and a false sense of protection, because many recessions that DO happen are a product of something that was done previously to try and avoid a PAST one.

Yesh, the socialists have been bitching about this for years...as have the libertarians. Ironic isn't it?

Economics makes strange bedfellows, too, I suppose.

 

[Paulie]

Sadly, Paulitec, the wrong people often pay for the mistakes. What lesson is learned other than the poor pay for the mistakes of the wealthy?

People go to work, do their jobs and poof! their jobs are gone.



Yesh, the socialists have been bitching about this for years...as have the libertarians. Ironic isn't it?

Economics makes strange bedfellows, too, I suppose.

I'm not sure why the socialists would be bitching about added intervention and less freedom, as you say.

But I believe that just looking at how our population is reacting to this recession is a prime example of the "lessons" I mentioned. It took $140 oil, but we finally realized that conservation makes a little SENSE. We realized that it's a bit ridiculous to continue consuming everything in our path like vultures, and instead re-learn how to live off what we can AFFORD, and make good use out of what we already have/had. It's the same thing that happens everytime there's a recession, except not ENOUGH pain is allowed to be felt, because our government feels a desire to step in. This in turn puts the idea in people's minds that when things go good again, it's ok to be fiscal idiots once again, because the next recession will be avoided or at least lessened through more intervention. With an INEVITABLE end result, as I'm sure you are aware of: The shit hits the fan.

Look at Paulson and Bernanke these days, wanting to give more power to the Fed to control our economy. An organization that already has such limited oversight and accountability wants even MORE control. I can't even imagine how many barrell rolls the founders have done in their graves just this year ALONE.

 

[editec]

I'm not sure why the socialists would be bitching about added intervention and less freedom, as you say.

You can't? What do you think they mean when they complain about socialism for the rich and capitalism for the poor?

But I believe that just looking at how our population is reacting to this recession is a prime example of the "lessons" I mentioned. It took $140 oil, but we finally realized that conservation makes a little SENSE. We realized that it's a bit ridiculous to continue consuming everything in our path like vultures, and instead re-learn how to live off what we can AFFORD, and make good use out of what we already have/had. It's the same thing that happens everytime there's a recession, except not ENOUGH pain is allowed to be felt, because our government feels a desire to step in. This in turn puts the idea in people's minds that when things go good again, it's ok to be fiscal idiots once again, because the next recession will be avoided or at least lessened through more intervention. With an INEVITABLE end result, as I'm sure you are aware of: The shit hits the fan.

Yeah, I basically agree with that. Now look at who is being helped, mostly, Paul. Far more money id being spent to bail out investors and banks that all the American people combined.

Look at Paulson and Bernanke these days, wanting to give more power to the Fed to control our economy. An organization that already has such limited oversight and accountability wants even MORE control. I can't even imagine how many barrell rolls the founders have done in their graves just this year ALONE.

Again, I see that point.

I'm failing to understand where we disagree here.

 

[Paulie]

You can't? What do you think they mean when they complain about socialism for the rich and capitalism for the poor?



Yeah, I basically agree with that. Now look at who is being helped, mostly, Paul. Far more money id being spent to bail out investors and banks that all the American people combined.



Again, I see that point.

I'm failing to understand where we disagree here.

Where we disagree, and have since you've been here, is that only the big boys are at fault. That the fiscal irresponsibility of the average consumer, according to you, is the result of the big evil investors causing them to think and act irrationally. We MUST hold EVERYONE to account, here.

You're not an idiot. You know what you NEED, and the difference between that and what you WANT. I know this because you make a lot of sense around here. But why should someone else get a free pass on a bad decision, when YOU probably WOULDN'T have made that particular decision?

I mean, I realize that some people are just morons. I understand that. But let's not let them slide, and blame ONLY the banks who took advantage of them, for instance. Those "morons" should still be held to account as well.

People in this country WANT WANT WANT. Too many people don't understand the fundamental difference between a want and a need. Wanting a Playstation 3, an iPod, and a $150 pair of shoes because everyone ELSE has those things, while you forsake your credit obligations, is a very serious problem. And it's RAMPANT in this country.

Ultimately, there's really nothing wrong with WANTING. But the problem lies in the decisions people are making, and the poor budgeting that's really hurting this economy right now. If you can afford it, and still pay your bills, then go ahead and by all means acquire your WANTS. If you're living paycheck to paycheck, for instance, then perhaps those wants may have to be put off for the NEEDS.

And for christ's sake, stop BORROWING to fund your wants. I believe you should borrow to fund your needs first. If you can afford to buy your wants with cash, then go ahead. If you can't, then how can you afford to buy them with interest bearing credit? It makes no sense to me.

 

[editec]

Every two term President has had a recession on their watch. Eisenhower had a big one on his watch, Nixon, likewise. The worst recession since the Great Depression was the one in the early 80's during Regan's term as he shifted the economy to a supply side model. Clinton had two, one at the very beginning he inherited from Bush Sr. and one at the end he gave to Bush Jr that got intensified by 9/11. And now Bush has one of his own. The next two termer is GUARANTEED to have one, no matter which party he or she comes from.

Interesting observation, Zoomie.

I'm inclined to think our system does has a random walk natural cycle which predisposes our economy to good times and bad, and that NOBODY is responsible for that.

So I am somewhat sympathetic to the complaint that many true conservatives make that our government tends to exascerbate those problems in the future by attempting to mitigate them.

Rather like we end up having really really bad forest fires by not allowing smaller nature fires to run their course.

Well all I can say is that the forest we currently live in looks like a real tinderbox and I dread to think what happens to our economy (the world's economy, too) if some real lightening storms hit it.

This is what makes global warming so threatening to our society, in my mind.

We are, like it or not, entirely dependent on reasonably predictable weather cycles.

A fairly slight shift in rain or doughts, ocean currents, hurricanes and what have you, might have truly serious consequences on our economic system and all in real time that makes dealing with it VERY difficult.

Not a clue how to mitigate that if it turns our to be the case.

Katrina was a drop in the ocean compared to how monumentally bad mother nature can serve us tidal shifts in how our ecology works, I think.

Remember the Mionoeans.

One volcanic disaster and the world's most advanced society and economy was wiped out.

And it was wiped out not just on their island, but most of the city states of that society all over the mediteranian, too.

Shit like that does happen, ya know.

 

[sealybobo]

Every two term President has had a recession on their watch. Eisenhower had a big one on his watch, Nixon, likewise. The worst recession since the Great Depression was the one in the early 80's during Regan's term as he shifted the economy to a supply side model. Clinton had two, one at the very beginning he inherited from Bush Sr. and one at the end he gave to Bush Jr that got intensified by 9/11. And now Bush has one of his own. The next two termer is GUARANTEED to have one, no matter which party he or she comes from.

Excuse me but Bush has had 2 Recessions. And his second one, the GOP caused it.

Retail sales fall for first time in five months
July data show economic woes blunted boost from stimulus checks

Retail sales fall for first time in five months - Stocks & economy - MSNBC.com

The weakness last month came after another big slide in auto sales as Detroit faced its worst sales month in 16 years. Automakers have been battered by the weak economy and record gasoline prices which have cut into demand for their once-popular sport utility vehicles and pickup trucks.

As Michigan goes, so does the rest of the country. How come the economy isn’t booming down south where they make Toyota’s and Honda’s? Go figure. Maybe this is why the Big 3 paid their employees so well. They buy cars, and everything else.

Even with the Stimulus checks, BUSH’S ECONOMY SUCKS!!! Throw the GOP bums out of office!!!

 

[sealybobo]

If Obama wins, expect immediate spike in consumer confidence, then the stockmarket and then the job market. clinton type surplus'.

Expect the GOP to bitch, even when the economy is booming. Expect Mitt to get whooped in the 2012 general election.

Expect to capture Bin Ladin. And assume alternative energy and a greener planet. Expect a whole new breed of politicians. Old politicians like mccain will all retire because the old way of doing thing doesn't work.

How the super wealthy convince you that you have anything in common is beyond me. the gop should only get 20 percent of the vote! the rest of you that make up the other 29 percent are fools.