Rasmussen: Romney up again

[NYcarbineer]

Silver is a KOS hack, hyper-partisan progressive... taking him as proof of your assertion is not better than a rightwinger using Rush as proof

Are Silver's numbers wrong?

Are Rass's??

You can sit there and claim Rass to be 'biased' yet they put out exactly how they draw their numbers... Silver, on the other hand, is about as transparent as mud... he is about as reliable in his analysis and opinion (which is what his articles are) as Rush... and I don't count Rush nor Silver as sources of any proof...

Silver shows Rasmussen's numbers were wrong. The most biased towards the Republicans.

 

[tinydancer]

Now it's only by one point in the Daily Tracking poll but there are some interesting stats in this poll.

Check it out:

Romney is now supported by 18% of white Democrats.



Romney has solidified the GOP vote and holds a 77-point lead among Republicans. That’s slightly larger than Obama’s 72-point advantage among Democrats.



Perhaps most significantly, Republicans are once again more engaged in the election than Democrats. Forty-nine percent (49%) of GOP voters are following the race on a daily basis. Among Democrats, just 42% are that interested.

Throughout 2012, Republicans have consistently held the enthusiasm advantage. However, for a few days following the Democratic National Convention in Charlotte, the president’s party caught up to the GOP on this important measure of potential turnout.



Daily Presidential Tracking Poll - Rasmussen Reports™

Admittedly, Rasmussen is the most accurate of the polling systems available, but we have to interpret the results fairly. The convention bounces of both candidates are gone and basically it's a tie between the two. Until we see a 3-4 margin between the two candidates, the polling won't determine much significant because it will be within the margin of error.

What is telling however, is that 18% of white Democrats now side with Republicans and Republicans are more a energized base. We can confirm that here on the USMB for there are more adamant conservatives than liberal posters on the boards.

The enthusiasm factor is the key.

 

[Ernie S.]

Intrade


Poll Score Grade Accuracy Consistency
Rasmussen Reports 91% A- 92% 86%
Ipsos/McClatchy 89% B+ 92% 79%
CNN/Opinion Research 88% B+ 92% 77%
Fox News 84% B 92% 61%
Pew 83% B- 92% 56%
GWU/Battleground 79% C+ 92% 41%
Diageo/Hotline 77% C+ 77% 79%
NBC News / Wall St. Journal 76% C 77% 75%
Gallup Traditional 73% C- 77% 63%
Marist 67% D+ 62% 82%
ABC News / Wash Post 67% D+ 62% 82%
IBD/TIPP 66% D 77% 34%
Gallup Expanded 66% D 62% 78%
CBS News / NYT 60% D- 62% 56%
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby 35% F 31% 48%

 

[Trajan]

Now it's only by one point in the Daily Tracking poll but there are some interesting stats in this poll.

Check it out:

Romney is now supported by 18% of white Democrats.



Romney has solidified the GOP vote and holds a 77-point lead among Republicans. That’s slightly larger than Obama’s 72-point advantage among Democrats.



Perhaps most significantly, Republicans are once again more engaged in the election than Democrats. Forty-nine percent (49%) of GOP voters are following the race on a daily basis. Among Democrats, just 42% are that interested.

Throughout 2012, Republicans have consistently held the enthusiasm advantage. However, for a few days following the Democratic National Convention in Charlotte, the president’s party caught up to the GOP on this important measure of potential turnout.



Daily Presidential Tracking Poll - Rasmussen Reports™

nonononono TD...see you can only use Rass IF he has Obama UP and Romney down,

annd it looks like TM jumped right in........ras is biased.

 

[Ernie S.]

Are Silver's numbers wrong?

Are Rass's??

You can sit there and claim Rass to be 'biased' yet they put out exactly how they draw their numbers... Silver, on the other hand, is about as transparent as mud... he is about as reliable in his analysis and opinion (which is what his articles are) as Rush... and I don't count Rush nor Silver as sources of any proof...

Silver shows Rasmussen's numbers were wrong. The most biased towards the Republicans.

Or are they the least biased towards the Democrats?

 

[NYcarbineer]

rass is biased

Seeing Rasmussen is consistently closer to the actual results that any other polling group, can you at least consider that firms that show obama ahead may be the ones that are biased?

But they're not.

 

[Trajan]

 

[M.D. Rawlings]

Why does rass ALWAYS tact to the right of other polls?

Maybe because all the other polls track left?

The other polls are still using the 2008 turnout ratio and therefore oversampling Democrats quite radically.

Everyone knows this by now.

Actually, Rasmussen presupposes a certain percentile of democratic support that cannot be readily reached by phone based on 2008 as well, though not as high as most other polls.

 

[Ernie S.]

rass is biased

Seeing Rasmussen is consistently closer to the actual results that any other polling group, can you at least consider that firms that show obama ahead may be the ones that are biased?

But they're not.

How can you justify that claim? They are repeatedly the closest to the final results and THEY are biased. Even you have to admit, that makes no sense at all.

 

[Leweman]

Even if the polls now are correct and unbiased and not skewed and are perfect in every way, they don't mean shit right now.

 

[Old Rocks]

President Obama 3.3

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - General Election: Romney vs. Obama

President Obama 237 Governor Romney 191

RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map

Florida President Obama 0.6

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Florida: Romney vs. Obama

Ohio President Obama 2.6

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Ohio: Romney vs. Obama

 

[auditor0007]

Why does rass ALWAYS tact to the right of other polls?

Have you ever looked at there accuracy record or do you just spew your BS with out any Research at all.

Rass has one of the most accurate Records of any Pollster in America, when you compare their polls the 2 weeks before an elections, to the Results of the Elections.

Stop being a lemming.

I think they are biased, but when it gets close to election time, then they have to put out real numbers so they look good in the end. In 2008, they had McCain within 3 points a few weeks before the election. As the election drew closer, Obama's lead increased to the final numbers.

This far away from the election, I think you pretty much have to go with an average rather than counting on any one single poll, because even without being biased, results are going to differ by three or four points as that is the margin of error for most of these polls. If we look at both Rasmussen and Gallup and figure they are both off by 4 points, then Obama has a 3 point lead, which is much closer to the average of all the other polls combined.

 

[Conservative]

intrade


poll score grade accuracy consistency
rasmussen reports 91% a- 92% 86%
ipsos/mcclatchy 89% b+ 92% 79%
cnn/opinion research 88% b+ 92% 77%
fox news 84% b 92% 61%
pew 83% b- 92% 56%
gwu/battleground 79% c+ 92% 41%
diageo/hotline 77% c+ 77% 79%
nbc news / wall st. Journal 76% c 77% 75%
gallup traditional 73% c- 77% 63%
marist 67% d+ 62% 82%
abc news / wash post 67% d+ 62% 82%
ibd/tipp 66% d 77% 34%
gallup expanded 66% d 62% 78%
cbs news / nyt 60% d- 62% 56%
reuters/c-span/zogby 35% f 31% 48%

lair!​

 

[Ernie S.]

The problem with RCP is they average polls that are historically inaccurate.

If you take my chart above and average the accuracy of Rasmussen, Fox. Gallop (traditional) and Reuters, the score is 71%, some 20 points below the best performer but still 35 points above the worst.

Thanks, but if I'm a baseball Manager picking someone to pinch hit, I'll choose the guy with the highest batting average over the guy that's just average, every time.

 

[Avatar4321]

Why does rass ALWAYS tact to the right of other polls?

Because the other polls tact to the left intentionally.

 

[tinydancer]

I don't follow Rasmussen because they give me polls I like. I've not liked a lot of them many times over.

Especially when they were showing Obama getting ahead of McCain. Sadly they were accurate.

BUT their methodology is excellent and reliable.

Cripes, earlier in the 2012 election season when the media giants were trying to push with their polls they were actually polling non voters. Just adults.

That didn't work. So they've now focused on "likeability". Lord knows what they'll come up with next.

 

[Ernie S.]

Liberals would rather have bad information than disappointing information.

And the word is tack, not tact, TDM.

 

[JoeB131]

rass is biased

Funny how he left doesnt feel that when Obama is in the lead with them . Then they say Romney is toast.. You are so predictable. Now go climb up Obama's ass where you belong

When Obama is ahead, it means even HE can't fudge his data to cover it up.

Fact is, Obama's ahead in every other poll and he's ahead in 10 of 11 Swing States. And that was before Romney pissed his magic underwear.

 

[AquaAthena]

link?

Fordham university did a study that found Rasmussen and Pew were the top two for most accurate polls in 2008.

The pdf is online. For some reason I can't open it this morning.

http://www.usmessageboard.com/5965621-post1.html

 

[Conservative]

Hello,

Liberal here. I am here to bring awareness of the uselessness of single sourced polls.

Please do everyone a favor and do not post single sourced polls as a "valid" end result.

To avoid looking like an ass please use aggregated source polls, like RealClearPolitics - Opinion, News, Analysis, Videos and Polls.

Thank you, have a great day.

I have not looked yet, but shall I assume you went into BL's 'Obama is up by 7' thread and said this as well?

I wasn't aware of the thread.. Isn't it a few days old?

Not sure. Here's a more recent one from Rinata... go get her tiger!
http://www.usmessageboard.com/politics/246774-nbc-wsj-poll-obama-leads-in-florida-virginia-ohio.html#post5982533