Predictions.. 2012 election Cycle

[rightwinger]

my predictions.

Cain will start to fade as he comes under more scrutiny and people see there's no there, there.

Perry will rise for no other reason than the majority of the GOP wants a "not Romney" and he has a whole lot of money.

The GOP will still find a way to shove Romney down the throat of the GOP base. Enough of them will be sufficiently ticked off to look at third parties.

Romney will prove to be an awful nominee, and Obama will beat him easily.

With Romney consistently beating Obama in the polls, and the economy looking to get worse (Novartis announced 2k layoffs) and with Obama unable to compromise your prediction is dead wrong.

Romney will lose primaries in teh south and west because outside of MA he isn't a republican.

Regretting jumping on the Perry bandwagon so soon?

That didn't take long

 

[Ernie S.]

Obama wins 52% to 48% despite massive voter suppression by the Republicans.

You really should change your user name to TMDean.

 

[masquerade]

Maybe it is about race to YOU. I am absolutely 100% certain without ANY reservations that 90% or more of those who oppose Obama don't give a tinkers dam what race he is. I am also as certain that those who support Obama desperately WANT it to be about race so they don't have to focus on his incompetence as President of the U.S.

Given the fact our boy Rabbi frequently uses racial slurs, it's definitely about race for him. I think it's about race for a lot of other people as well. A few other posters here, the ones who post blatantly racist pictures and avis, yeah, its' about race.

But whether you want it to be about race or not, that is the elephant in the middle of the room. Obama is historic because he's the first black president. If the GOP doesn't define- clearly- that it is about issues, they will be open to that charge.

All it takes is one low level campaign worker to forward a racist e-mail to the wrong person, and it can get very ugly.

Nonsense. The LEFT wants race to be important. The RIGHT does not. The right knows that the war to end slavery, to end segregation, and to open doors of opportunity for all has been fought and won, and it was mostly rightwingers, even mostly religious types, regardless of what political party they identified themselves with, who caused most of that to happen.

So the war is over. Conservatives want to stop fighting it. Conservatives want the right to treat everybody the same including those with different skin color. As long as there are people taking immediate offense and shouting RACIST at every image, innuendo, or analogy used, just because it is used re a black person, racism will remain alive, well, and used for political advantage.

And it is true that the left tends to be far more genuinely racist than the right because it is the left who notices, focuses on, points out, and makes race important and uses it to their political advantage.

Object to that. You should.

Dr. Marc LaMont Hill is the first to come to mind.

 

[Dr.Traveler]

About the only predication I am willing to make is that regardless of the outcome, there are going to be a lot of people that are unhappy with it.

I would like to predict that Obama is going to lose the election, but despite the positive thinking on the right, I am afraid that they could be guilty of counting their chickens before they hatch. There is just too much time between now and the election and too much corruption in Washington to make such claims.

Immie

Sadly, I think you are right. There is too much between now and then to accurately claim someone is going to win no matter what.

The only think im certain of is that we will see violence. I dont know who will do it or where or why. But it will happen.

I'm convinced that inside the next 3 months you'll see open violence around the OWS protests. Whether it is the OWS folks that start it, or someone that attacks them (like in northeast) remains to be seen. They're in a critical phase right now where they'll go political (Like the Tea Party) or violent grass roots (Like the militia groups in the Clinton days). I'd like to think that will stay peaceful, but I do not think so.

My prediction? At this point the only prediction I'm willing to make is that the GOP will probably hold the House. I think it is possible they'll take the Senate, but I wouldn't bet on it.

The Presidential race is way to early to call. I wouldn't give Obama strong odds of winning, but I see a lot of parallels developing with 2004. The GOP is so certain they seem to be on the verge of picking a truly Kerry level candidate just to see how badly they can screw it up. Once the GOP nomination process is over I'll be more comfortable calling it.

As far as election related violence? I don't see it. The African American community doesn't seem as attached to him as they were before, so if he's losing, I see a big shoulder shrug as the result. If he's winning, I suspect we'll see the truly wacko guys like USArmyRetired go nuts and get violent. They're barely holding it in with 1 term.

US Politics is still at the point where it's only the extrema or the foolish that get violent.

 

[masquerade]

As it stands now, I think Obama will win re-election. The economy is the primary issue....and I believe that most Americans feel that Congress carries more of the blame for the fact that growth is slow. I believe that Americans are smart enough to look at the data and determine that we are better off now than we were when Obama took office. The unemployment rate is high....but I'm not getting the idea that Americans in general feel that any of the GOP candidates are going to be able to change that any better than Obama.

Consumer confidence tumbles in October | Reuters

News Headlines

An Unprecedented 26 Million Americans Are Now Underemployed

Seems to me that many Americans don't agree with your opinion that they are better off now.

 

[The Rabbi]

As it stands now, I think Obama will win re-election. The economy is the primary issue....and I believe that most Americans feel that Congress carries more of the blame for the fact that growth is slow. I believe that Americans are smart enough to look at the data and determine that we are better off now than we were when Obama took office. The unemployment rate is high....but I'm not getting the idea that Americans in general feel that any of the GOP candidates are going to be able to change that any better than Obama.

Consumer confidence tumbles in October | Reuters

News Headlines

An Unprecedented 26 Million Americans Are Now Underemployed

Seems to me that many Americans don't agree with your opinion that they are better off now.

Unemployment on Inauguration Day was 7.6%. THat was the lowest it's been for Obama's entire term.

 

[rightwinger]

As it stands now, I think Obama will win re-election. The economy is the primary issue....and I believe that most Americans feel that Congress carries more of the blame for the fact that growth is slow. I believe that Americans are smart enough to look at the data and determine that we are better off now than we were when Obama took office. The unemployment rate is high....but I'm not getting the idea that Americans in general feel that any of the GOP candidates are going to be able to change that any better than Obama.

Consumer confidence tumbles in October | Reuters

News Headlines

An Unprecedented 26 Million Americans Are Now Underemployed

Seems to me that many Americans don't agree with your opinion that they are better off now.

Unemployment on Inauguration Day was 7.6%. THat was the lowest it's been for Obama's entire term.

And we were losing 700,000 jobs a month. Talk about handing over a crisis economy

 

[The Rabbi]

Consumer confidence tumbles in October | Reuters

News Headlines

An Unprecedented 26 Million Americans Are Now Underemployed

Seems to me that many Americans don't agree with your opinion that they are better off now.

Unemployment on Inauguration Day was 7.6%. THat was the lowest it's been for Obama's entire term.

And we were losing 700,000 jobs a month. Talk about handing over a crisis economy

And after 3years we haven't replaced even one month's worth of job losses.
Good work, Barack!

 

[Foxfyre]

Setting all the arbitrary stuff aside, we were sliding into recession and the unemployment rate was beginning to climb when President Bush was inaugerated. 9/11 of course greatly exacerabated that and created a much deeper recession than it otherwise would have been. President Bush also had Katrina to deal with which dealt another severe economic blow to the nation and the biggie of course was the housing bubble collapse in 2008--a bubble that had been built through four administrations.

But the Bush economy was not a terrible economy just the same and if you take the major disasters out of it, was a darn good one. The real economists give his tax policy a lot of the credit for that.

Unemployment rates:

President Obama has had no major disasters or major national crisis to deal with and had every opportunity to facilitate an economic policy that would have helped instead of making things worse. He followed his heart and chose to go the Marxist/socialist way, however, to the detriment of us all. He is either doing it on purpose or, like many leftists, an understanding of what creates real prosperity just isn't in his DNA.

He did it again this week by removing more sound lending practices from mortgage regulation and look for major pressure to be put on the banks to refinance more homes that are under water at ridiculously low rates. Short term it looks compassionate. Long term it will prolong and further weaken an already devastating housing market.

 

[rightwinger]

Unemployment on Inauguration Day was 7.6%. THat was the lowest it's been for Obama's entire term.

And we were losing 700,000 jobs a month. Talk about handing over a crisis economy

And after 3years we haven't replaced even one month's worth of job losses.
Good work, Barack!

We have replaced over 3million jobs according to CBO

 

[The Rabbi]

And we were losing 700,000 jobs a month. Talk about handing over a crisis economy

And after 3years we haven't replaced even one month's worth of job losses.
Good work, Barack!

We have replaced over 3million jobs according to CBO

So why is unemployment higher now than when Obama was inaugurated? Either the CBO's figures are wrong or the unemployment figures are wrong. Which is it?

 

[rightwinger]

And after 3years we haven't replaced even one month's worth of job losses.
Good work, Barack!

We have replaced over 3million jobs according to CBO

So why is unemployment higher now than when Obama was inaugurated? Either the CBO's figures are wrong or the unemployment figures are wrong. Which is it?

Look boys and girls......more Rabbi games
Isn't this fun?

Look at all the jobs that were lost in the Bush recession, look at additional jobs being needed as population grows, look at increased numbers seeking employment

Fact is Bush lost 4 million jobs in the last 9 months of his disaster of a presidency while Obama showed positive jobs growth

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

We have replaced over 3million jobs according to CBO

So why is unemployment higher now than when Obama was inaugurated? Either the CBO's figures are wrong or the unemployment figures are wrong. Which is it?

Look boys and girls......more Rabbi games
Isn't this fun?

Look at all the jobs that were lost in the Bush recession, look at additional jobs being needed as population grows, look at increased numbers seeking employment

Fact is Bush lost 4 million jobs in the last 9 months of his disaster of a presidency while Obama showed positive jobs growth

There are fewer jobs today than when Obama took office. Doesn't sound like positive job growth to me.

 

[The Rabbi]

So why is unemployment higher now than when Obama was inaugurated? Either the CBO's figures are wrong or the unemployment figures are wrong. Which is it?

Look boys and girls......more Rabbi games
Isn't this fun?

Look at all the jobs that were lost in the Bush recession, look at additional jobs being needed as population grows, look at increased numbers seeking employment

Fact is Bush lost 4 million jobs in the last 9 months of his disaster of a presidency while Obama showed positive jobs growth

There are fewer jobs today than when Obama took office. Doesn't sound like positive job growth to me.

Workforce participation is at its lowest point in 30 years. That doesnt sound like job creation to me.
Nutwinger is blowing smoke. Again.

 

[JoeB131]

With Romney consistently beating Obama in the polls, and the economy looking to get worse (Novartis announced 2k layoffs) and with Obama unable to compromise your prediction is dead wrong.

Romney will lose primaries in teh south and west because outside of MA he isn't a republican.

Guy, he's not consistantly beating him in the polls.

Here's the latest set of polls, from RealClearPolitics.com... Obama leads him in four and ties him in two.

RCP Average 10/6 - 10/18 -- 45.8 44.2 Obama +1.6
Democracy Corps (D) 10/15 - 10/18 1000 LV 45 45 Tie
Rasmussen Reports 10/16 - 10/17 1000 LV 43 42 Obama +1
Associated Press/GfK 10/13 - 10/17 1000 A 48 45 Obama +3
Time 10/9 - 10/10 838 LV 48 44 Obama +4
PPP (D) 10/7 - 10/10 700 RV 45 45 Tie
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 10/6 - 10/10 RV 46 44 Obama +2

Now he is doing better than your boy Perry, I'll give him that.

RCP Average 10/6 - 10/17 -- 50.2 39.2 Obama +11.0
Associated Press/GfK 10/13 - 10/17 1000 A 51 42 Obama +9
Rasmussen Reports 10/10 - 10/11 1000 LV 49 35 Obama +14
Time 10/9 - 10/10 838 LV 51 40 Obama +11
PPP (D) 10/7 - 10/10 700 RV 49 40 Obama +9
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 10/6 - 10/10 RV 51 39 Obama +12

But I think these numbers are meaningless. I still thing Perry would be a stronger candidate because he doesn't have Romney's negatives.

That assumes the economy doesn't get better. If it does, all bets are off.

 

[Rinata]

Well.. I think we're there.

The odds of our elected federal representatives passing useful legislation is pretty well kaput....

So.. I'm thinking this election cycle will be the most divisive and low blowing in American history..

I prefer to hope the results of the 2012 election with be a conservative result and a return to sanity..

Oh, Lumpy. Tell me, which conservative result are you hoping for from that motley group of candidates???

 

[JoeB131]

And we were losing 700,000 jobs a month. Talk about handing over a crisis economy

And after 3years we haven't replaced even one month's worth of job losses.
Good work, Barack!

We have replaced over 3million jobs according to CBO

I think I spend about 50% of my time calling Shennaigans on the right, and 50% on the left.

Okay, RW, got to call shennanigans on you. You cut the graph off in the middle of 2009, when there was a temporary surge in employment because the Senseless Bureau hired 500,000 people to take the census. And they all vanished in June when they were let go.

Obama's job growth, taking out the Census figures, has barely made up for the new job seekers entering the workforce.

 

[Lumpy 1]

Well.. I think we're there.

The odds of our elected federal representatives passing useful legislation is pretty well kaput....

So.. I'm thinking this election cycle will be the most divisive and low blowing in American history..

I prefer to hope the results of the 2012 election with be a conservative result and a return to sanity..

Oh, Lumpy. Tell me, which conservative result are you hoping for from that motley group of candidates???

With all due respect, Sweets...With Obama's policies it's been all down hill for us private workers.

I'm in the.. anyone but Obama crowd...granted the choices could be better, a lot better

 

[The Rabbi]

With Romney consistently beating Obama in the polls, and the economy looking to get worse (Novartis announced 2k layoffs) and with Obama unable to compromise your prediction is dead wrong.

Romney will lose primaries in teh south and west because outside of MA he isn't a republican.

Guy, he's not consistantly beating him in the polls.

Here's the latest set of polls, from RealClearPolitics.com... Obama leads him in four and ties him in two.

RCP Average 10/6 - 10/18 -- 45.8 44.2 Obama +1.6
Democracy Corps (D) 10/15 - 10/18 1000 LV 45 45 Tie
Rasmussen Reports 10/16 - 10/17 1000 LV 43 42 Obama +1
Associated Press/GfK 10/13 - 10/17 1000 A 48 45 Obama +3
Time 10/9 - 10/10 838 LV 48 44 Obama +4
PPP (D) 10/7 - 10/10 700 RV 45 45 Tie
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 10/6 - 10/10 RV 46 44 Obama +2

Now he is doing better than your boy Perry, I'll give him that.

RCP Average 10/6 - 10/17 -- 50.2 39.2 Obama +11.0
Associated Press/GfK 10/13 - 10/17 1000 A 51 42 Obama +9
Rasmussen Reports 10/10 - 10/11 1000 LV 49 35 Obama +14
Time 10/9 - 10/10 838 LV 51 40 Obama +11
PPP (D) 10/7 - 10/10 700 RV 49 40 Obama +9
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 10/6 - 10/10 RV 51 39 Obama +12

But I think these numbers are meaningless. I still thing Perry would be a stronger candidate because he doesn't have Romney's negatives.

That assumes the economy doesn't get better. If it does, all bets are off.

I at elast agree the numbers are meaningless.
The economy will not improve. It would take an act of G-d himself and that won't happen. Europe is about to go down the shitter with the EU dissolving. That will damp demand for some time and cause huge write offs in sovereign and bank debt for banks here. This will make the asset based recession come back again. With inflation rising the Fed will be forced to raise rates or make the US dollar look like the 1920s reichmark.

 

[The T]

With Romney consistently beating Obama in the polls, and the economy looking to get worse (Novartis announced 2k layoffs) and with Obama unable to compromise your prediction is dead wrong.

Romney will lose primaries in teh south and west because outside of MA he isn't a republican.

Guy, he's not consistantly beating him in the polls.

Here's the latest set of polls, from RealClearPolitics.com... Obama leads him in four and ties him in two.

RCP Average 10/6 - 10/18 -- 45.8 44.2 Obama +1.6
Democracy Corps (D) 10/15 - 10/18 1000 LV 45 45 Tie
Rasmussen Reports 10/16 - 10/17 1000 LV 43 42 Obama +1
Associated Press/GfK 10/13 - 10/17 1000 A 48 45 Obama +3
Time 10/9 - 10/10 838 LV 48 44 Obama +4
PPP (D) 10/7 - 10/10 700 RV 45 45 Tie
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 10/6 - 10/10 RV 46 44 Obama +2

Now he is doing better than your boy Perry, I'll give him that.

RCP Average 10/6 - 10/17 -- 50.2 39.2 Obama +11.0
Associated Press/GfK 10/13 - 10/17 1000 A 51 42 Obama +9
Rasmussen Reports 10/10 - 10/11 1000 LV 49 35 Obama +14
Time 10/9 - 10/10 838 LV 51 40 Obama +11
PPP (D) 10/7 - 10/10 700 RV 49 40 Obama +9
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 10/6 - 10/10 RV 51 39 Obama +12

But I think these numbers are meaningless. I still thing Perry would be a stronger candidate because he doesn't have Romney's negatives.

That assumes the economy doesn't get better. If it does, all bets are off.

I at elast agree the numbers are meaningless.
The economy will not improve. It would take an act of G-d himself and that won't happen. Europe is about to go down the shitter with the EU dissolving. That will damp demand for some time and cause huge write offs in sovereign and bank debt for banks here. This will make the asset based recession come back again. With inflation rising the Fed will be forced to raise rates or make the US dollar look like the 1920s reichmark.

And those EU Countries along with the United States will resemble the Weimar Republic that gave rise to the likes of Hitler.