Polls

[DavidS]

Can we now, finally, take the question if polls are correct, off of the table? We don't know what the final % count was, but so far, every single state poll was correct.

 

[Chris]

Can we now, finally, take the question if polls are correct, off of the table? We don't know what the final % count was, but so far, every single state poll was correct.

Pretty much.

What made McCain think he could win Pennsylvania?

Scaring the coal miners?

 

[Luc1]

I don't think McCain ever thought he could win Pennsylvania; I think he just didn't expect to win all the real swing states and thus felt he needed a fairly large democratic state in order to win. There were a few states such as Nevada and Colorado that were included in the list of swing states but were pretty much guaranteed to go for Obama.

 

[Care4all]

i guess we need to figure out why the polls were wrong for 2004? Did they ever figure that out?

 

[DavidS]

i guess we need to figure out why the polls were wrong for 2004? Did they ever figure that out?

Uh, they weren't. Most of them predicted Bush within 2-4 points.

 

[Care4all]

Uh, they weren't. Most of them predicted Bush within 2-4 points.

there were a few key states where the polls were way off....

maybe that was the exit polls?

 

[DavidS]

there were a few key states where the polls were way off....

maybe that was the exit polls?

Zogby had Kerry winning Iowa and Florida...but that's zogby for ya. He's about as accurate as a blind archer.