Overestimated global warming over the past 20 years

[IanC]

Overestimated warming, vastly underestimated effects. The Arctic Ice Cap is where it was supposed to between 2050 and 2080. The increase in extreme weather events was not expected to happen until midcentury. But when we get another moderate El Nino, I fully expect the underestimate of the warming will disappear.

According to whom? Only six years ago, the BBC reported that the Arctic would be ice-free in summer by 2013, citing a scientist in the US who claimed this was a ‘conservative’ forecast. What "increase in extreme weather events?" There isn't a shred of evidence for that.

BBC.... quoting "a scientist".

Let's get real. No one - not even your side of this argument, saw the hiatus coming. And you have no explanation for it, do you? Thought not.

And, of course, we're still waiting on some kind of answer from you on how one makes climate projections without resorting to models. I suppose we could have a look at the models YOUR fellows have created. Now where might those be Dave?

All the people who pointed out that the AMO and PDO have large effects on global temps predicted the hiatus.

The skeptic side does not get funding to produce climate models, or time on supercomputers to run them. It is a shame that they don't actually because we might have broken out of the 'CO2 controls the climate' rut earlier if groups of scientists with different viewpoints were allowed to compete against the status quo.

On a more political side, I find it annoying that climate scientists are allowed to make doomsday predictions to the media with no repercussions when they fail to materialize. Or when they make unsubstantiated claims and conclusions about their work to great fanfare in the media only to have them repudiated with NO attention when the papers are actually published, like the new Hockeystick this year. This is one of the reasons I abhor the IPCC using papers in their report that are only 'accepted' not published.

 

[daveman]

Overestimated warming, vastly underestimated effects. The Arctic Ice Cap is where it was supposed to between 2050 and 2080. The increase in extreme weather events was not expected to happen until midcentury. But when we get another moderate El Nino, I fully expect the underestimate of the warming will disappear.

According to whom? Only six years ago, the BBC reported that the Arctic would be ice-free in summer by 2013, citing a scientist in the US who claimed this was a ‘conservative’ forecast. What "increase in extreme weather events?" There isn't a shred of evidence for that.

BBC.... quoting "a scientist".

Yes. Quoting a scientist. And you don't get to dismiss his work with scare quotes.

BBC NEWS | Science/Nature | Arctic summers ice-free 'by 2013'

Scientists in the US have presented one of the most dramatic forecasts yet for the disappearance of Arctic sea ice.

Their latest modelling studies indicate northern polar waters could be ice-free in summers within just 5-6 years.

Professor Wieslaw Maslowski told an American Geophysical Union meeting that previous projections had underestimated the processes now driving ice loss.

Summer melting this year reduced the ice cover to 4.13 million sq km, the smallest ever extent in modern times.

Remarkably, this stunning low point was not even incorporated into the model runs of Professor Maslowski and his team, which used data sets from 1979 to 2004 to constrain their future projections.

"Our projection of 2013 for the removal of ice in summer is not accounting for the last two minima, in 2005 and 2007," the researcher from the Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California, explained to the BBC.

"So given that fact, you can argue that may be our projection of 2013 is already too conservative."

--

Professor Maslowski's group, which includes co-workers at Nasa and the Institute of Oceanology, Polish Academy of Sciences (PAS), is well known for producing modelled dates that are in advance of other teams.​

Let's get real. No one - not even your side of this argument, saw the hiatus coming. And you have no explanation for it, do you? Thought not.

Of course we have an explanation: "The climate has always changed, and always will. Man's activities may have some small part in driving that change, but most of it is driven by natural forces of which we have only a rudimentary understanding."

And, of course, we're still waiting on some kind of answer from you on how one makes climate projections without resorting to models. I suppose we could have a look at the models YOUR fellows have created. Now where might those be Dave?

Dood. You REALLY can't tell the difference between the words "daveman" and "bripat9643"?

My side doesn't require models. Your side has to back up its claims. The models you use to try to do that with SUCK. You need to throw them away and come up with better ones...ones that actually work, and not ones like you're using now -- that give you the result you want, not a result based on the input data.

 

[daveman]

What scientific organization has the initial BBC? Come on, dumb fuck, that is not a source that has credibility as far as predictions on climate or ice. Now here is where you should go for that kind of prediction;

PIOMAS August 2013 - Arctic Sea Ice

Hey, dumbshit. The BBC reports news. It doesn't do its own climate research.

And in 2007, they reported that an American climate researcher said the Arctic would be ice-free by this year:

BBC NEWS | Science/Nature | Arctic summers ice-free 'by 2013'

Professor Wieslaw Maslowski told an American Geophysical Union meeting that previous projections had underestimated the processes now driving ice loss.

Summer melting this year reduced the ice cover to 4.13 million sq km, the smallest ever extent in modern times.

Remarkably, this stunning low point was not even incorporated into the model runs of Professor Maslowski and his team, which used data sets from 1979 to 2004 to constrain their future projections.

"Our projection of 2013 for the removal of ice in summer is not accounting for the last two minima, in 2005 and 2007," the researcher from the Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California, explained to the BBC.

"So given that fact, you can argue that may be our projection of 2013 is already too conservative."​

Here's Dr. Maslowski's CV:

NPS vita for Wieslaw Maslowski

EDUCATION:
PhD - University of Alaska Fairbanks, 1994
Physical Oceanography
MS - University of Gdansk, Poland, 1987
Physical Oceanography
NPS EXPERIENCE:
2009 - present: Research Professor, Department of Oceanography
2001 - 2009: Research Associate Professor, Department of Oceanography
1995 - 2001: Research Assistant Professor, Department of Oceanography
OTHER EXPERIENCE:
1999 - 1999: Visiting Assistant Professor, Univ of California Santa Cruz
1994-1995: Postdoctoral Fellow, NOAA Global and Climate Change
1991 - 1994: NASA Global Change Fellow, Univ of Alaska, Fairbanks, Alaska
1988 - 1988: Research Assistant, Univ of Alaska Fairbanks, Institute of Marine Science

--

AWARDS:
Special Act Award, Naval Postgraduate School, 1998
NOAA Global and Climate Change Postdoctoral Fellowship, 1994-1995
NASA Global Change Graduate Fellowship, 1991-1994
Graduate Program in Marine Sciences and Limnology, Outstanding Ph.D. Student Award, 1994
BOARDS/MEMBERSHIPS:
NAS/NRC Committee on A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling, 2011-present
NAS/NRC Committee on A Science Plan for the North Pacific Research Board, 2003-2005
NSF Committee for the Bering Sea Initiative, 2002-2004
Arctic Region Supercomputing Center Technology Panel, 2000-2007
Arctic Region Supercomputing Center Science Review Panel, 2009-2011
Board of Directors of the Arctic Research Consortium of the United States, 1999-2006
Numerical Experimentation Group of the Arctic Climate System Study / Climate and Cryosphere Program, 1998-2005
Polar Meteorology and Oceanography Committee of the American Meteorological Society, 1998-2001
Co-Chairman of the SCICEX 2000 Workshop on Submarine-Based Arctic Science after the Year 2000, Warrenton, VA, 6-8 October, 1998
Co-chairman of the Arctic Forum at the Arctic Research Consortium of the United States Annual Meeting, Washington, D.C., 2000, 2002, and 2004 member of American Geophysical Union and The Oceanography Societ​

You don't get to dismiss him and his work because he was wrong.

 

[daveman]

From Dave's link:
********************************************************************************
Abstract. Are simulations and reconstructions of past climate and its variability consistent with each other? We assess the consistency of simulations and reconstructions for the climate of the last millennium under the paradigm of a statistically indistinguishable ensemble. In this type of analysis, the null hypothesis is that reconstructions and simulations are statistically indistinguishable and, therefore, are exchangeable with each other. Ensemble consistency is assessed for Northern Hemisphere mean temperature, Central European mean temperature and for global temperature fields. Reconstructions available for these regions serve as verification data for a set of simulations of the climate of the last millennium performed at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology.

Consistency is generally limited to some sub-domains and some sub-periods. Only the ensemble simulated and reconstructed annual Central European mean temperatures for the second half of the last millennium demonstrates unambiguous consistency. Furthermore, we cannot exclude consistency of an ensemble of reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere temperature with the simulation ensemble mean.

If we treat simulations and reconstructions as equitable hypotheses about past climate variability, the found general lack of their consistency weakens our confidence in inferences about past climate evolutions on the considered spatial and temporal scales. That is, our available estimates of past climate evolutions are on an equal footing but, as shown here, inconsistent with each other.

Citation: Bothe, O., Jungclaus, J. H., Zanchettin, D., and Zorita, E.: Climate of the last millennium: ensemble consistency of simulations and reconstructions, Clim. Past, 9, 1089-1110, doi:10.5194/cp-9-1089-2013, 2013.
*******************************************************************************

Yo, Dave,

How about you show us where your article says that the models ("of past climate") overestimate warming?

How about you show us where I claimed the models ("of past climate") overestimate warming?

I showed research that shows the models are unable to predict past climate.

DO try to keep up, willya? I'm tired of having to explain things to you guys over and over and over.

 

[daveman]

I suggest, Dave, that you did not read this article before citing it as evidence.

Here is the conclusion of Dave's article:

I suggest you're a moron. I didn't link that article, moron.

Did I mention you're a moron?