Obama is back! New NBC poll results

[mamooth]

RCP's problem is how it gives equal weight to even the crappiest polls, such as Gravis or We Ask America, two Republican astroturf pollers. There aren't any similar shill organizations on the Democratic side. For example, PPP may be funded by Democrats, but compared to other pollsters, it's been reporting numbers this cycle slightly less favorable to Obama.

Nate Silver does it better, diong a weighted average according to poll size and past bias of that pollster.

 

[JakeStarkey]

The RCP, accounting for Gravis or We Ask America, is weighted slightly in favor of the GOP, meaning its numbers, when showing Dems up in the Midwest from IA and WI to PA, should be comforting to Dems.

 

[decker]

The RCP, accounting for Gravis or We Ask America, is weighted slightly in favor of the GOP, meaning its numbers, when showing Dems up in the Midwest from IA and WI to PA, should be comforting to Dems.

it is little but still i think it close election still with romney with sight edge.

but battle still on

 

[BluePhantom]

Polls: Obama holds his lead in Iowa, Wisconsin - First Read

he never really left.

well maybe not on NBC..

The fact that it's an NBC poll is bad enough but it's also Marist and they are even worse than PPP in terms of bias. PPP usually biases by about 4 points toward the Democrat (not surprising since they are affiliated with the Democratic party). Marist is even worse. On average they are about 7 points toward the Democrat compared to the rest of the professional pollsters. In other words, that poll is a joke. What is interesting is that PPP has it Romney +1 in Iowa and that's significant considering their bias. If they are saying Romney +1 it suggests Romney +4 or 5.

I would guess that's probably not accurate though. It's probably a dead heat in Iowa right now

 

[BluePhantom]

RCP's problem is how it gives equal weight to even the crappiest polls, such as Gravis or We Ask America, two Republican astroturf pollers. There aren't any similar shill organizations on the Democratic side. For example, PPP may be funded by Democrats, but compared to other pollsters, it's been reporting numbers this cycle slightly less favorable to Obama.

That is such total bullshit. PPP is on average about 4 points more favorable to Obama than the rest. Do you just make this shit up as you go along? Good christ.

 

[BluePhantom]

Nate Silver does it better, diong a weighted average according to poll size and past bias of that pollster.

No that's not how he does it. He weights his polls based on Pollster Introduced Error (PIE) but he refuses to release his criteria on that measurement. It's basically whatever he says it is and he refuses to justify that rating with a statistical formula. THEN he gives a bonus to pollsters who belong to his pet organization (which hypocritically is an organization that promotes transparency in statistical analysis). That allows him to give greater weight to the polls he wants (the ones with a liberal bias) without justifying his calculations.

Silver is a liberal hack who uses cooked statistics to try to influence voting. He will do this year just what he did in 2010.....show all these huge Democratic advantages and then about two days before the election his model will "suddenly start showing a GOP advantage" in order to preserve any iota of credibility he has.....and liberal tools like you will swallow it hook, line, and sinker.

 

[Zoom]

Romney should just give up.

Idiot.

No shit. I agree.

 

[mudwhistle]

If I want honest reporting I go directly to NBC or MSNBC with Chris Matthews.

 

[Rinata]

You people are too funny. If you like the results the poll is valid. When you don't it's a crooked, dishonest poll.

 

[Cheddarmelon]

RCP's problem is how it gives equal weight to even the crappiest polls, such as Gravis or We Ask America, two Republican astroturf pollers. There aren't any similar shill organizations on the Democratic side. For example, PPP may be funded by Democrats, but compared to other pollsters, it's been reporting numbers this cycle slightly less favorable to Obama.

That is such total bullshit. PPP is on average about 4 points more favorable to Obama than the rest. Do you just make this shit up as you go along? Good christ.

Do you NOT realize how monumentally stupid that is?

Having a democratic lean and reporting that it's in the bag for them is the LAST thing the Democrats would need.

Same for the Republicans if polls say "Romney's got it, don't worry."

It would influence people NOT to bother to vote, because it's already won. Stupid dumbfuckery abounds.

 

[Rinata]

I really like the Huffpost Election Dashboard. It shows all the presidential polls and lots of information about other races. It is updated throughout the day.

Obama vs. Romney Electoral Map

 

[BluePhantom]

RCP's problem is how it gives equal weight to even the crappiest polls, such as Gravis or We Ask America, two Republican astroturf pollers. There aren't any similar shill organizations on the Democratic side. For example, PPP may be funded by Democrats, but compared to other pollsters, it's been reporting numbers this cycle slightly less favorable to Obama.

That is such total bullshit. PPP is on average about 4 points more favorable to Obama than the rest. Do you just make this shit up as you go along? Good christ.

Do you NOT realize how monumentally stupid that is?

Having a democratic lean and reporting that it's in the bag for them is the LAST thing the Democrats would need.

Same for the Republicans if polls say "Romney's got it, don't worry."

It would influence people NOT to bother to vote, because it's already won. Stupid dumbfuckery abounds.

Yes it does and you just demonstrated a lot of it. It would not influence people to refrain from voting, it would create a bandwagon effect. Refer to this thread for an indepth statistical analysis documenting PPP's bias.

 

[Cheddarmelon]

That is such total bullshit. PPP is on average about 4 points more favorable to Obama than the rest. Do you just make this shit up as you go along? Good christ.

Do you NOT realize how monumentally stupid that is?

Having a democratic lean and reporting that it's in the bag for them is the LAST thing the Democrats would need.

Same for the Republicans if polls say "Romney's got it, don't worry."

It would influence people NOT to bother to vote, because it's already won. Stupid dumbfuckery abounds.

Yes it does and you just demonstrated a lot of it. It would not influence people to refrain from voting, it would create a bandwagon effect. Refer to this thread for an indepth statistical analysis documenting PPP's bias.

Horse droppings. If you've declared a win already, people aren't going to go out of their busy lives to pour thimbles of water in to an ocean. It's fucking ridiculous.

 

[BluePhantom]

Do you NOT realize how monumentally stupid that is?

Having a democratic lean and reporting that it's in the bag for them is the LAST thing the Democrats would need.

Same for the Republicans if polls say "Romney's got it, don't worry."

It would influence people NOT to bother to vote, because it's already won. Stupid dumbfuckery abounds.

Yes it does and you just demonstrated a lot of it. It would not influence people to refrain from voting, it would create a bandwagon effect. Refer to this thread for an indepth statistical analysis documenting PPP's bias.

Horse droppings. If you've declared a win already, people aren't going to go out of their busy lives to pour thimbles of water in to an ocean. It's fucking ridiculous.

They are not declaring a win, genius. They are showing more support than he has. People like to back a winner and people can be very strongly influenced by trends. If they see things heading in a certain direction people have a tendency to join the crowd not go against it. Regardless, it makes no difference what their philosophy is. The numbers are the numbers. Refer to the thread I linked...it's all right there.

 

[NYcarbineer]

RCP's problem is how it gives equal weight to even the crappiest polls, such as Gravis or We Ask America, two Republican astroturf pollers. There aren't any similar shill organizations on the Democratic side. For example, PPP may be funded by Democrats, but compared to other pollsters, it's been reporting numbers this cycle slightly less favorable to Obama.

That is such total bullshit. PPP is on average about 4 points more favorable to Obama than the rest. Do you just make this shit up as you go along? Good christ.

In PPP's last 5 Ohio polls,

Obama led by 1, 5, 4, 5, and 3 points.

In realclear's Ohio average, on the corresponding days,

Obama led by 2, 2, 6, 2, and 5 points.

That's not a 4 point average Obama bias. That's a 1/5 of one point Obama bias, IOW, statistically insignificant.

 

[JoeB131]

NYTimes is a good rag, but I think RCP this year really has the pulse of the people.

RCP turned into a Right Wing Hack site a long time ago.

I'll take Nate Silver, because last time, he got 49 out of 50 states right.

 

[Cheddarmelon]

NYTimes is a good rag, but I think RCP this year really has the pulse of the people.

RCP turned into a Right Wing Hack site a long time ago.

I'll take Nate Silver, because last time, he got 49 out of 50 states right.

Curiosity. Which did he miss on?

I'm just wondering.

 

[JakeStarkey]

Um, actually . . . you are the hack, JoeB.

RCP is good and fair, and you are a lying sack of manure, even from the moment you were trying to sway people to nine weaker candidates than the one you knew that can, and will, beat the President in November.

You have never been honest, you have never been smart enough to hide your dishonesty, and your day of dishonor is coming on election day.

NYTimes is a good rag, but I think RCP this year really has the pulse of the people.

RCP turned into a Right Wing Hack site a long time ago.

I'll take Nate Silver, because last time, he got 49 out of 50 states right.

 

[JoeB131]

Guy, any of thoe weaker candidates would be better than Romney.

Because Romney is just a totally evil human being.

And he's going to lose, badly... and the funny thing is, all these "conservatives" who pretend to be your buds now will turn on you for suggesting him to start with.

Everything will be Romney's fault WHEN he loses.

Um, actually . . . you are the hack, JoeB.

RCP is good and fair, and you are a lying sack of manure, even from the moment you were trying to sway people to nine weaker candidates than the one you knew that can, and will, beat the President in November.

You have never been honest, you have never been smart enough to hide your dishonesty, and your day of dishonor is coming on election day.

NYTimes is a good rag, but I think RCP this year really has the pulse of the people.

RCP turned into a Right Wing Hack site a long time ago.

I'll take Nate Silver, because last time, he got 49 out of 50 states right.

 

[JoeB131]

NYTimes is a good rag, but I think RCP this year really has the pulse of the people.

RCP turned into a Right Wing Hack site a long time ago.

I'll take Nate Silver, because last time, he got 49 out of 50 states right.

Curiosity. Which did he miss on?

I'm just wondering.

I believe he missed Indiana... He thought McCain was going to carry that and he didn't.