NY-23 Facts

[Coyote]

Ah, here you betray your total ignorance to national politics.

The network of governors is essential to a national compaign. Governors in fact often have more sway with the White House than that state's respective Senators and certainly far more than each state's respective Congressmen/women. (unless it is a long-term Congressperson - then the power balance can shift a bit) An effective governor already has an established party machine in place for their respective state, which then is of great aid to a presidential candidate.

The loss of both Virginia and New Jersey to Republican governors was a huge blow to the Democrats. As for NY23 - that will go back to the 'pubs in 2010 - and mark my words, it will be a far more openly conservative Republican that time around...

I don't think so. A lot of brouhahaha is being made by both parties and even more, by the media about these off year elections. They aren't referendums on Obama or either party really - they are predominately oriented on local politics.

NJ's Christie won 49% to Corzine's 45% but it's amazing Corzine got even that much as he's been associated with corruption and his poll ratings have been very low. Christie also ran on an anti-corruption, small government and lower taxes (in a state with the highest tax rate in the nation) but social conservative issues were notably absent. He won by running as a moderate in a largely democratic state.

Virginia is more significant because it was not only the Governor but the Lt. Governer and Attorney General but here again - the platform is significant. McDonnell is a strong conservative candidate but he carefully downplayed his social conservative credentials and stuck to the small government and fiscal conservative platform and as they applied to local issues.

In both those states exit polls continued to show Obama to be very popular, and voters stated Obama was not an issue in their voting choice. In both those states the winners stuck carefully to local politics. So was this election a referendum on Obama or a green light for a strong conservative agenda? It does not seem that way. In order the keep NJ, the Governor will have to be rather centrist. Virginia too, I suspect.

The NY race was wildly strange - a Democrat should not have won it and the fact that one did says more about the mishandling of the election by the Republicans then it does about any demographic change.

All 3 state-wide winners are very conservative in VA. The crap the media is saying is completely wrong. McDonnell campaigned like Reagan circa 1980. So if that is moderate, so be it. But I don't think so.

McDonnell didn't focus on social issues. The focus was economic, transportation, funding, off-shore drilling. Deeds tried to make hay out of a paper McDonnell had written 20 years ago, but McDonnell did a good job of shooting that down.

Perhaps moderate is the wrong word to use - what I meant was that he deliberately downplayed his social conservative credentials and focused on fiscal issues and I think he did that because the demographics of Virginia in regards to social conservativism have been undergoing a lot of change with increased suburban populations voting.

Christie is probably a centrist though.

Ya, I think so too.

 

[saveliberty]

The NY race was wildly strange - a Democrat should not have won it and the fact that one did says more about the mishandling of the election by the Republicans then it does about any demographic change.

That is a very good observation, the GoP didn't realize what was happening until the election came on, they had blindly backed exactly the kind of candidate that turned off most of their base.

I would venture to say the only thing saving the Dems right now is the GoP is still stuck on douchebag mode.

I'm not sure it's that exactly. I think the Democrat one because of one important fact - he stuck to local issues relentlessly and he knew those issues. In an interview I heard, the Conservative Party candidate couldn't even provide adequate answers on some of their more pressing issues. Also, the Democrat ran as a moderate similar to VA and NJ - sticking to local issues, not national issues and avoiding extremes. Technically speaking - a Republican should not have one NJ either and if Corzine had not been so unpopular, it is doubtful they would have.

I think that what this election says - if anything - is that it is about local issues, not national issues. The Republicans made made a mistake backing a candidate that was not familiar with those issues and tried to make it a national referendum on Obama and the Democrats.

If you're looking for political trends - the 2010 election will be more telling then this one.

Wow! An exact parrot of the White House talking points. I do agree with 2010 being more telling. The economy is not a local issue, if it is, I'm moving.

 

[Coyote]

That is a very good observation, the GoP didn't realize what was happening until the election came on, they had blindly backed exactly the kind of candidate that turned off most of their base.

I would venture to say the only thing saving the Dems right now is the GoP is still stuck on douchebag mode.

I'm not sure it's that exactly. I think the Democrat one because of one important fact - he stuck to local issues relentlessly and he knew those issues. In an interview I heard, the Conservative Party candidate couldn't even provide adequate answers on some of their more pressing issues. Also, the Democrat ran as a moderate similar to VA and NJ - sticking to local issues, not national issues and avoiding extremes. Technically speaking - a Republican should not have one NJ either and if Corzine had not been so unpopular, it is doubtful they would have.

I think that what this election says - if anything - is that it is about local issues, not national issues. The Republicans made made a mistake backing a candidate that was not familiar with those issues and tried to make it a national referendum on Obama and the Democrats.

If you're looking for political trends - the 2010 election will be more telling then this one.

Wow! An exact parrot of the White House talking points. I do agree with 2010 being more telling. The economy is not a local issue, if it is, I'm moving.

I don't read the White House talking points so I don't know what you are talking about.

The economy is first and foremost a LOCAL issue. That is where it hits hardest. It is in LOCAL areas that jobs are being lost. It is in LOCAL areas where unemployment is over 10%. Of course it's a national issue - but it hits home first and voters want to know what their locally elected representatives are gonig to do about it at HOME not in Washington.

 

[Tech_Esq]

The NY race was wildly strange - a Democrat should not have won it and the fact that one did says more about the mishandling of the election by the Republicans then it does about any demographic change.

That is a very good observation, the GoP didn't realize what was happening until the election came on, they had blindly backed exactly the kind of candidate that turned off most of their base.

I would venture to say the only thing saving the Dems right now is the GoP is still stuck on douchebag mode.

I'm not sure it's that exactly. I think the Democrat one because of one important fact - he stuck to local issues relentlessly and he knew those issues. In an interview I heard, the Conservative Party candidate couldn't even provide adequate answers on some of their more pressing issues. Also, the Democrat ran as a moderate similar to VA and NJ - sticking to local issues, not national issues and avoiding extremes. Technically speaking - a Republican should not have one NJ either and if Corzine had not been so unpopular, it is doubtful they would have.

I think that what this election says - if anything - is that it is about local issues, not national issues. The Republicans made made a mistake backing a candidate that was not familiar with those issues and tried to make it a national referendum on Obama and the Democrats.

If you're looking for political trends - the 2010 election will be more telling then this one.

I'm not sure I agree completely. There was certainly a strong component of the Repub vote in, Virginia at a minimum, that was sending a message to Washington about the direction of the government. There was a direct warning shot at the representatives from Virginia to watch their step as this legislation comes up.

My representative is directly in the crosshairs in 2010. He's Dem in a Rep district held by Tom Davis since 1994. So, I think it is a mistake to just disregard the results a strictly local. If the pols believe that, they do so at their peril in 2010.

 

[kwc57]

It seems that the Conservative Party of New York has a proud tradition of getting Democrats elected. They tend to go against Republican candidates they deem unworthy and endorse more extreme candidates who then lose to Democrats. They seem to be cutting off their nose to spite their face. I'm not sure I would welcome their endorsement.

Conservative Party of New York - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Conservative Party of New York - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Conservative Party of New York - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[Coyote]

It seems that the Conservative Party of New York has a proud tradition of getting Democrats elected. They tend to go against Republican candidates they deem unworthy and endorse more extreme candidates who then lose to Democrats. They seem to be cutting off their nose to spite their face. I'm not sure I would welcome their endorsement.

Conservative Party of New York - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Conservative Party of New York - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Conservative Party of New York - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

that is too funny....seems like they, along with Palin could be the kiss of death in regions where the demographics are more moderate....

 

[bodecea]

It seems that the Conservative Party of New York has a proud tradition of getting Democrats elected. They tend to go against Republican candidates they deem unworthy and endorse more extreme candidates who then lose to Democrats. They seem to be cutting off their nose to spite their face. I'm not sure I would welcome their endorsement.

Conservative Party of New York - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Conservative Party of New York - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Conservative Party of New York - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Happens here in CA too.

 

[Coyote]

It was interesting that the Republican winners in NJ and VA notably excluded Palin.

 

[Tech_Esq]

It was interesting that the Republican winners in NJ and VA notably excluded Palin.

It's too early to say what Palin is yet. I'm, generally speaking, a Palin fan, but a political realist. Palin has taken as tact that I disagree with. So, I'm going to wait and see what she does. She has a lot of personal assets and some aspects, like everyone, that she needs to shore up. It is nothing that is impossible to do. But, she has to take that step and do it. I would have thought her better able to do that as governor, but I may not have had all the facts.

All that said, one thing that Palin adds is a culture warrior aspect to a campaign. Sometimes that's a good thing, sometimes not. It was not needed in either Virginia or NJ. In Virginia, Deeds was a blue dog. There wasn't much difference between McDonnell and Deeds on social issues. Indeed, in the Atty Gen election McDonnell only beat Deeds by a few hundred votes.

Now, if McDonnell had been running against Doug Wilder or someone more liberal, maybe bringing Palin in and having a few "rock star" type campaign stops would have been good for his campaign. Social issues would have been key differentiators.

Time and place.

 

[NYcarbineer]

It was interesting that the Republican winners in NJ and VA notably excluded Palin.

Yeah, Palin in the these two races was like the guy who climbs on the bus after the accident and complains about his neck pain.

 

[Oldandtired]

It was interesting that the Republican winners in NJ and VA notably excluded Palin.

It does not take rocket science to know why.
It is not at all interesting....it was obvious.
The press loves to attack Palin....so to mention her after a victory will allow the press to drag her and the victor through the mud.
No...not interesting to the level headed. Just plain old expected.

 

[amrchaos]

Only question I have about the Hoffman race is simply this one.

How did the Dems lose big if they gained more seats in Congress?

 

[rightwinger]

It was interesting that the Republican winners in NJ and VA notably excluded Palin.

It does not take rocket science to know why.
It is not at all interesting....it was obvious.
The press loves to attack Palin....so to mention her after a victory will allow the press to drag her and the victor through the mud.
No...not interesting to the level headed. Just plain old expected.

All I know is that in NJ, Christie encouraged Palin to stay away.

He would have done better with Dick Cheney endorsing him than if Sarah Palin had

 

[Coyote]

It was interesting that the Republican winners in NJ and VA notably excluded Palin.

It does not take rocket science to know why.
It is not at all interesting....it was obvious.
The press loves to attack Palin....so to mention her after a victory will allow the press to drag her and the victor through the mud.
No...not interesting to the level headed. Just plain old expected.

No, it doesn't take rocket science. Palin appeals to the far right, particularly the social conservatives - otherwise, she's a wingnut. Demographically the hard right is a minority. Palin isn't bringing in more moderate conservatives and that is what would affect states like VA and NJ.

It's convenient to blame it on the media, but frankly it's Palin. She's the right's version of Kucinich.

 

[Oldandtired]

Only question I have about the Hoffman race is simply this one.

How did the Dems lose big if they gained more seats in Congress?

Quite simple...and I have said tyhis several times yet no one wants to comment on it.

He was an unknown until a mnoth ago.
He had no money to speak of.
He had no real party to back him.
He has the personality of a fish.
He was a true third party candidate.
His closest competitor "party wise" bowed out and backed the democrat.

And yet.....

he only lost to the FAVORITE by a few percentage points.

Pretty scary for the democrats if you ask me.

 

[amrchaos]

It was interesting that the Republican winners in NJ and VA notably excluded Palin.

It does not take rocket science to know why.
It is not at all interesting....it was obvious.
The press loves to attack Palin....so to mention her after a victory will allow the press to drag her and the victor through the mud.
No...not interesting to the level headed. Just plain old expected.

No, it doesn't take rocket science. Palin appeals to the far right, particularly the social conservatives - otherwise, she's a wingnut. Demographically the hard right is a minority. Palin isn't bringing in more moderate conservatives and that is what would affect states like VA and NJ.

It's convenient to blame it on the media, but frankly it's Palin. She's the right's version of Kucinich.

No--Ron Paul is the rights version of Kucinich. Palin is in a special type of category. Like Mao, and Lenin(minus the blood and gore)--but on the right!!

 

[Oldandtired]

It was interesting that the Republican winners in NJ and VA notably excluded Palin.

It does not take rocket science to know why.
It is not at all interesting....it was obvious.
The press loves to attack Palin....so to mention her after a victory will allow the press to drag her and the victor through the mud.
No...not interesting to the level headed. Just plain old expected.

All I know is that in NJ, Christie encouraged Palin to stay away.

He would have done better with Dick Cheney endorsing him than if Sarah Palin had

Please...tell me......are you friends with Mr. Christie?
You certainly seem to know things that only his freinds would know.
Did he tell you that he encouraged Palin to stay away?

 

[Oldandtired]

It was interesting that the Republican winners in NJ and VA notably excluded Palin.

It does not take rocket science to know why.
It is not at all interesting....it was obvious.
The press loves to attack Palin....so to mention her after a victory will allow the press to drag her and the victor through the mud.
No...not interesting to the level headed. Just plain old expected.

No, it doesn't take rocket science. Palin appeals to the far right, particularly the social conservatives - otherwise, she's a wingnut. Demographically the hard right is a minority. Palin isn't bringing in more moderate conservatives and that is what would affect states like VA and NJ.

It's convenient to blame it on the media, but frankly it's Palin. She's the right's version of Kucinich.

Palin appeals to conservatives.
Are you saying that conservatives are the far right?

 

[Coyote]

It does not take rocket science to know why.
It is not at all interesting....it was obvious.
The press loves to attack Palin....so to mention her after a victory will allow the press to drag her and the victor through the mud.
No...not interesting to the level headed. Just plain old expected.

No, it doesn't take rocket science. Palin appeals to the far right, particularly the social conservatives - otherwise, she's a wingnut. Demographically the hard right is a minority. Palin isn't bringing in more moderate conservatives and that is what would affect states like VA and NJ.

It's convenient to blame it on the media, but frankly it's Palin. She's the right's version of Kucinich.

Palin appeals to conservatives.
Are you saying that conservatives are the far right?

No.

I said: Palin appeals to the far right, particularly the social conservatives

 

[amrchaos]

No, it doesn't take rocket science. Palin appeals to the far right, particularly the social conservatives - otherwise, she's a wingnut. Demographically the hard right is a minority. Palin isn't bringing in more moderate conservatives and that is what would affect states like VA and NJ.

It's convenient to blame it on the media, but frankly it's Palin. She's the right's version of Kucinich.

Palin appeals to conservatives.
Are you saying that conservatives are the far right?

No.

I said: Palin appeals to the far right, particularly the social conservatives

She also appeal to survivalists and Neo-conservattives.

She can "Field dress a Moose"!!