New study suggests we may see ice-free Arctic in our lifetime

[ScienceRocks]

New study suggests we may see ice-free Arctic in our lifetime

New study suggests we may see ice-free Arctic in our lifetime | Science Recorder
Science Recorder | Ellen Miller | Saturday, May 11, 2013

A new study published in the current issue of Science suggests that an ice-free Arctic may very well become a reality in the near future.

The research team set out to study Lake El’gygytgyn, “Lake E” for short, which was formed 3.6 million years ago when a meteorite hit earth. Because it has not been eroded by continental ice sheets, which is rare in the Arctic, it has an undisturbed sediment record that the team wanted to examine. The sediment samples examined were collected in 2009 from Lake E, and enabled the scientists to look back in time 2.2 to 3.6 million years ago.

This is possible!

 

[ScienceRocks]

I'm of the belief that we will likely hold onto most of the sea ice around Greenland and northern Canada for the next 20-30 years. Who knows by 2100?

 

[mamooth]

Yeah, the thick ice piled up north of Greenland and Canada will last a while. The North Pole, however, is a different question. It could end up as open water even this year, or not. It mainly depends on how the winds blow.

For example, we had been seeing persistent high pressure over Greenland. That meant clockwise winds around Greenland, meaning Arctic sea ice getting blown south out the Fram Strait, to melt in warmer waters. That had caused thinning of the ice around the North Pole.

In the past few days, that high pressure finally went away, and so the ice export to the south stopped. And since it's still really cold at the north pole, that will give the cracks there a chance to refreeze.

 

[mamooth]

Today's topic, Lake El'gygytgyn. Which I will call "Lake E" from now on.

Lake E is a meteor impact crater in far northeast Siberia, formed 3.6 million years ago. It has never been covered by a glacier. Thus, it's the only known spot on earth to hold a perfect sediment record going back 3.6 million years.

So, recently an expedition went to remote Siberia to drill out and analyze core samples from Lake E.

Pliocene Warmth, Polar Amplification, and Stepped Pleistocene Cooling Recorded in NE Arctic Russia

"Evidence from Lake El’gygytgyn, NE Arctic Russia, shows that 3.6-3.4 million years ago, summer temperatures were ~8°C warmer than today when pCO2 was ~400 ppm."

8C. Ouch. No, it won't get there overnight, or next year, or next decade, but it will get there eventually.

And yes, I'm sure that group went to camp out in Siberia for the cash. Or perhaps for a love of socialism. I'm sure the kooks can tell us why the data was clearly forged and doesn't count. They always do.

 

[Old Rocks]

Given the rapid decline of the volume, I expect to see an ice free Arctic Ocean in my lifetime.

I have posted part of these numbers before. But consider, it takes 334 Joules of energy to melt 1 gram of water. And that water merely goes from a solid to a liquid, it is still at 0 degrees C. And it used to be, that this water was on top of ice, so 90% of the energy in the sunlight was reflected by the ice back into space. The 10% was what had to do the work. Now, for much of the summer, where there used to be ice, there is only open water. Water that takes only 4.184 J of energy to heat one gram of water 1 degree C. So the 334 J of energy that used to melt one gram of ice with no increase in temperature, now raises 79.8 grams of water one degree C. Not only that, but the water absorbs 90% of the energy in the sunlight, and reflects 10% of the energy back into space. So the amount of sunlight that used to melt 1 gram of ice, with no increase in temperature, now raises the temperature of 718 grams of water one degree.

A ratio of one to 718. That is the feedback we are dealing with. And there are the clathrates at shallow levels in this ocean. Going to be an interesting century.

 

[Katzndogz]

It wasn't that long ago, a year maybe, that experts were predicting that children in England would never again see snow.

 

[Old Rocks]

It wasn't that long ago, a year maybe, that experts were predicting that children in England would never again see snow.

In 2000 geologists were being called alarmists for predicting that by 2100, there was a good chance that the Arctic Ocean would be ice free for part of the summer. Now, it looks to happen before 2020.

 

[ScienceRocks]

It wasn't that long ago, a year maybe, that experts were predicting that children in England would never again see snow.

In 2000 geologists were being called alarmists for predicting that by 2100, there was a good chance that the Arctic Ocean would be ice free for part of the summer. Now, it looks to happen before 2020.

Between you and I somehow I doubt the ice near Greenland will be gone within the next 20-30 years. Some of that is 5 meters thick.

Seriously...Do I think we could get to 1.5 million during the min? YES! Maybe 1 million. We will see. I'll shit myself if that ice near Greenland goes.

We really are fucked if that happens.

 

[Old Rocks]

If the ice north of Greenland stays in place. That is the problem. As the surrounding ice goes, that ice may move west and south. If it does so, it will be gone.

 

[skookerasbil]

On anthropogenic circular reasoning and glaciers...........

?The end for small glaciers? or anthropogenic circular reasoning? | Watts Up With That?



This is classic