New paper finds only 1 weather station in the Arctic with warming that can't be expla

[SSDD]

In response to the barrage of recent posts by a certain member of this board, the vast majority of which reflect, and discuss nothing more than the output of computer models, I am going to post some recently published papers based on actual observation. The contrast is remarkable.

This paper, recently published in Geophysical Research Lettters looks at the surface air temperature trends in the Eurasian Arctic region and found that only 17, out of the 109 stations have trends that are not explainable by natural variation, and out of those 17, only one showed a warming trend that is signifigant when compared to the three null models for climate change without human forcing.

On the statistical significance of surface air temperature trends in the Eurasian Arctic region

On the statistical significance of surface air temperature trends in the Eurasian Arctic region

 

[Old Rocks]

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 39, L23705, 5 PP., 2012
doi:10.1029/2012GL054244

On the statistical significance of surface air temperature trends in the Eurasian Arctic region

On the statistical significance of surface air temperature trends in the Eurasian Arctic region

Key Points•I am using a novel method to test the significance of temperature trends•In the Eurasian Arctic region only 17 stations show a significant trend
•I find that in Siberia the trend signal has not yet emerged

C. Franzke

British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, Cambridge, UK


This study investigates the statistical significance of the trends of station temperature time series from the European Climate Assessment & Data archive poleward of 60°N. The trends are identified by different methods and their significance is assessed by three different null models of climate noise. All stations show a warming trend but only 17 out of the 109 considered stations have trends which cannot be explained as arising from intrinsic climate fluctuations when tested against any of the three null models. Out of those 17, only one station exhibits a warming trend which is significant against all three null models. The stations with significant warming trends are located mainly in Scandinavia and Iceland.

There are going to be some interesting comments on his "novel" method in the next few months. Especially given the observations of what is happening in the Permafrost in Siberia. Then there is the little matter of the Arctic Sea Ice, and, by the way, the ice in Greenland.

You guys are constantly denigrating models, yet when someone produces a model that produces the result that you want, you immediatly accept it as gospel. Even when reality soundly refutes the model.

 

[waltky]

Granny says, "Dat's right - it's the endtimes an' the world is heatin' up like it says inna Revelation inna Bible...

US coast, Midwest at risk: climate panel
Sun, Jan 13, 2013 - Average US temperatures may jump as much as 2.2oC in the coming decades, and efforts to combat the effects are insufficient, a government advisory panel on climate change said.

The 60-member panel approved and released a draft report on Friday that says many coastal areas face “potentially irreversible impacts” as warmer temperatures lead to flooding, storm surges and water shortages. “The chances of record-breaking, high-temperature extremes will continue to increase as the climate continues to change,” the panel said in its report. Temperatures are predicted to increase, on average, by between 2oC and 4oC in the next few decades, according to the report. The panel of scientists from academia, industry, environmental groups and the government prepared the report, and its findings are the closest to a consensus about global warming in the US. Reports in 2000 and 2009 by the US Global Change Research Program concluded carbon dioxide emissions since the Industrial Revolution have led to a warming of the Earth’s temperature, which threatens to cause extreme weather, drought and floods.

The latest report “represents a consensus of the scientific community of what has changed and what the impacts are across the country,” Katharine Jacobs, a White House official who is director of the assessment, said on Friday after the panel met. “It’s important given how rapidly things are changing.” The current 400-page report for the first time tackles efforts to adapt to global warming and efforts to mitigate its effect, Jacobs said. Already, average US temperatures are up 1.5oF since 1895, with most of the increase occurring in the past three decades, it said. Last year was the warmest on record going back to 1895 for the 48 contiguous US states and the second-worst for weather extremes including arid conditions, hurricanes and wildfires, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

The group highlighted the possible impact of the increased temperatures, which will include more intense heat waves, reduced water quality, increased risk of coastal erosion and stronger storm surges along the coasts. “As a result of past emissions of heat-trapping gases, some amount of additional climate change and related impacts is now unavoidable,” according to the report. “However, beyond the next few decades, the amount of climate change will still largely be determined by choices society makes about emissions.”

Not all the outcomes are catastrophic. Warming will mean a longer growing season in the Midwest and northeast, and farmers should be able to adapt to warmer seasons for the next 25 years, it said. “The draft report is the most thorough, science-based assessment of present and future climate-driven impacts facing America,” Lou Leonard, managing director for climate change at the World Wildlife Fund, said in a statement.

US coast, Midwest at risk: climate panel - Taipei Times

See also:

Climate Change May Have Confused, Trapped Killer Whales
January 11, 2013 - A pod of killer whales trapped in the ice of Canada’s Hudson Bay successfully has left the small opening where they were gasping for breath, but marine specialists say global warming could cause more incidents like this.

Lyne Morissette, a marine researcher with the St. Lawrence Global Observatory in Quebec, said the 12 orcas may simply have gotten lost while hunting for seals and other food, but it’s more likely they got stuck in the ice because of climate change. “They tend to base their migration on temperature, but based on the fact that temperature is changing in the Arctic, and the water is warmer, maybe they didn’t get the signal,” she said. The mammals’ plight captivated the world after video taken by Inuit residents of the the Inukjuak community circulated on television and social media, showing the killer whales taking turns bobbing above the Bay’s icy waters.

Thousands of supporters offered money and equipment to free the whales, and news of their escape Thursday - two days after they were spotted - spurred celebrations online. But unlike in the movies about whale rescues, this story doesn’t have a soaring soundtrack or happy ending. “They are probably close to 1,000 kilometers south of where they should be. So they still have ice to struggle with to really be at the safe place,” Morissette said. “It’s not the end of the story, because they have to get out of the Hudson Bay.”

Global warming?

The Arctic is warming about twice as fast as the rest of the planet, with temperatures rising about two degrees centigrade since 1950, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center at the University of Colorado. “The warming temperatures are making highly unpredictable the pattern of ice formation,” said Peter Ewins of the World Wildlife Fund Canada. “What used to be much more predictable and routine is now unpredictable, and that’s what leads to these great uncertainties and risks.” Ewins pointed to both the whales getting stuck, and a separate incident this week in which a rescue helicopter broke through the ice in another area of the Hudson Bay. “The lessons you’ve learned, whether you’re wildlife or human, don’t apply. You’ve got a radically different, changing system. Those tools and experiences are actually not relevant anymore,” he said.

Ted Scambos, a lead scientist with the National Snow and Ice Data Center, agreed the Arctic is changing and said greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are a major cause of this warming. But he said he doubts this week’s events are directly linked to global warming or changes in the sea ice, which has declined in extent by three percent per decade for the last few decades in winter. In summer, that rate is more like 13 percent. “I think winds and ice conspired to corral and then constrict this pod of killer whales and then the winds shifted before people had to take action and allowed the killer whales to get out,” Scambos said. “That sort of stuff must have happened over and over again in history,” he said. “And some whales were lucky and some whales weren’t.”

Survival of the fittest