New paper finds only 1 weather station in the Arctic with warming that can't be expla

Discussion in 'Environment' started by SSDD, Dec 30, 2012.

  1. SSDD
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    SSDD Gold Member

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    In response to the barrage of recent posts by a certain member of this board, the vast majority of which reflect, and discuss nothing more than the output of computer models, I am going to post some recently published papers based on actual observation. The contrast is remarkable.

    This paper, recently published in Geophysical Research Lettters looks at the surface air temperature trends in the Eurasian Arctic region and found that only 17, out of the 109 stations have trends that are not explainable by natural variation, and out of those 17, only one showed a warming trend that is signifigant when compared to the three null models for climate change without human forcing.

    On the statistical significance of surface air temperature trends in the Eurasian Arctic region

    On the statistical significance of surface air temperature trends in the Eurasian Arctic region
     
  2. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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    GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 39, L23705, 5 PP., 2012
    doi:10.1029/2012GL054244

    On the statistical significance of surface air temperature trends in the Eurasian Arctic region

    On the statistical significance of surface air temperature trends in the Eurasian Arctic region

    Key Points•I am using a novel method to test the significance of temperature trends•In the Eurasian Arctic region only 17 stations show a significant trend
    •I find that in Siberia the trend signal has not yet emerged

    C. Franzke

    British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, Cambridge, UK


    This study investigates the statistical significance of the trends of station temperature time series from the European Climate Assessment & Data archive poleward of 60°N. The trends are identified by different methods and their significance is assessed by three different null models of climate noise. All stations show a warming trend but only 17 out of the 109 considered stations have trends which cannot be explained as arising from intrinsic climate fluctuations when tested against any of the three null models. Out of those 17, only one station exhibits a warming trend which is significant against all three null models. The stations with significant warming trends are located mainly in Scandinavia and Iceland.

    There are going to be some interesting comments on his "novel" method in the next few months. Especially given the observations of what is happening in the Permafrost in Siberia. Then there is the little matter of the Arctic Sea Ice, and, by the way, the ice in Greenland.

    You guys are constantly denigrating models, yet when someone produces a model that produces the result that you want, you immediatly accept it as gospel. Even when reality soundly refutes the model.
     
  3. waltky
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    waltky Wise ol' monkey Supporting Member

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    Granny says, "Dat's right - it's the endtimes an' the world is heatin' up like it says inna Revelation inna Bible...
    :eusa_eh:
    US coast, Midwest at risk: climate panel
    Sun, Jan 13, 2013 - Average US temperatures may jump as much as 2.2oC in the coming decades, and efforts to combat the effects are insufficient, a government advisory panel on climate change said.
    See also:

    Climate Change May Have Confused, Trapped Killer Whales
    January 11, 2013 - A pod of killer whales trapped in the ice of Canada’s Hudson Bay successfully has left the small opening where they were gasping for breath, but marine specialists say global warming could cause more incidents like this.
     

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