Nate Silver Say... Everything Nate Silver goes here

[Oddball]

Wow...NYT pimps a democratic.....STOP THE PRESSES!

 

[Article 15]

Obama 83.9% chance of winning
Romney 16.1% chance of winning

Nate Silver - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

Polls are skewed.

Times is a liberal rag.

Fred Thomson is going to win, the University of Colorado told me so.

^These will all come up in response to this OP in some shape or form.

 

[Political Junky]

Nate has a history of being spot on.

 

[Article 15]

Nate's Now-cast has it 97.8 - 2.2

 

[Article 15]

Nate has a history of being spot on.

Yup. He's a statistics uber nerd.

He nailed 2008 and almost called the exact number of House seat pick ups for the GOP in the 2010 mid terms.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Who is Nate Silver?

How did he do in 2010?

 

[Article 15]

Who is Nate Silver?

Big time stat geek.

How did he do in 2010?

Pretty damn good.

 

[Dot Com]

but..... but Rasmussen has Romney up by 5

 

[Lakhota]

Wall St. Loses Faith in Their Man Romney -- 6 Really Bad New Signs for the GOP Candidate | Alternet

 

[Zarius]

Nate Silver - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

 

[Missourian]

Cling to hope.

I'd call it 50/50 right now.

Anecdotally, my wife cast her first ballot in 17 year s to defeat Obama/Mccaskill.

 

[toomuchtime_]

Nate Silver - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

Don't pop the cork on your champagne yet. The estimate is as of Oct. 13. Since then Tommy Thompson has taken the lead in the Wisconsin Senate race and Tom Smith in Pennsylvania is closing fast on Bob Casey, moving from a 6.3 point deficit on Oct. 13 to a 3 point deficit according to the latest Quinnipiac poll.

 

[candycorn]

Nate Silver - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

Great news indeed. Obamacare stands.

 

[JimH52]

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

We still have a few days until the vote, but I heard this morning that the Romney camp may be thinking of shifting resources to Pennsylvania, if Ohio appears lost. Again, anything can happen at this point, but that comment caught me by surprise...

Silver's numbers have been going up and down. I expect to see the same in the coming days. This is still a very tight race.

 

[LadyGunSlinger]

Who the hell is Nate Silverman and why should any of us care??!

 

[Listening]

Who the hell is Nate Silverman and why should any of us care??!

He's the guy that the left pays to make an idiot out of himself by claiming this kind of sillyness.

 

[JimH52]

Who the hell is Nate Silverman and why should any of us care??!

Ya....nice try...you know who he is and you know how accurate he is.

 

[Mac1958]

.

I'm no expert on polls, but it seems like they're stabilizing somewhat and the key is going to be not just the swing states, but the turnout in the swing states. Obama's five point lead in Ohio, for example, won't matter if his folks don't show up. Same thing in Pennsylvania. The pollsters try to gauge intensity, but that's gotta be a pretty inexact science, especially when you're already dealing with likely voters.

.

 

[jillian]

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

We still have a few days until the vote, but I heard this morning that the Romney camp may be thinking of shifting resources to Pennsylvania, if Ohio appears lost. Again, anything can happen at this point, but that comment caught me by surprise...

Silver's numbers have been going up and down. I expect to see the same in the coming days. This is still a very tight race.

yes, yes he does.

 

[jillian]

.

I'm no expert on polls, but it seems like they're stabilizing somewhat and the key is going to be not just the swing states, but the turnout in the swing states. Obama's five point lead in Ohio, for example, won't matter if his folks don't show up. Same thing in Pennsylvania. The pollsters try to gauge intensity, but that's gotta be a pretty inexact science, especially when you're already dealing with likely voters.

.

true. it's about ground game. right now, early voting in ohio seems to be two to one in the president's favor. no doubt romney voters are more likely to come out on election day. so as chuck todd just pointed out, the question remains...are the people voting for the president casual voters, which early voting is intended to attract, or are these his voters maxing out.