Nate Silver Say... Everything Nate Silver goes here

Obama is doubling down on blaming Bush.

Seems they are both playing the game with our chips.

Yup ... Mitt bluffs, says it's Obama's fault.

Obama reminds everyone what he walked into and then contrast the then with the now and flips over his aces.

the then and now with aces?

damn you're bluffed.


Wanna get together and play some cards? It's been a long time since I've played, but I'm certain I can keep up as long as the deck comes with one of those list cards so I know what beats what.

:eusa_angel:

I hit up Foxwoods in CT often. It's a pretty nice poker room and there's always several games going.
 
The most impressive thing that our model did in 2008, in my view, was not in “calling” all but one of the states right on Election Day. There was very little doubt about who was favored in perhaps 46 or 47 of these states. The other three or four were tossups — and whether you guessed the winner right had as much to do with luck as skill.
Rather, it was what the model did in September of that year, when it detected very, very quickly after the collapse of Lehman Brothers that John McCain’s goose was cooked, with Barack Obama’s projected probability of winning the Electoral College increasing by about 25 percent in a period of just 48 hours.
We’re not seeing anything quite that dramatic in the polls right now. Nevertheless, the polling movement that we have seen over the past three days represents the most substantial shift that we’ve seen in the race all year, with the polls moving toward Mr. Obama since his convention.
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Thank you for sharing your sniveling butthurt, Gasbag.

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Nate Silver is a bigger hack then you are.

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The Paul Ryan's of the world don't get elected President.

You have nothing to fear.
I don't know. If bush and Obama can get elected twice, anyone has a shot.

I understand your point but Ryan is an ideologue. America doesn't hire them for the big boy's job.

Yeah, ask Ronnie.

This is a troll thread if ever there was. Even the great Nate admits he lacks sufficient evidence. That makes his "prediction" nothing more than SWAG. Actually just WAG.
 
I don't know. If bush and Obama can get elected twice, anyone has a shot.

I understand your point but Ryan is an ideologue. America doesn't hire them for the big boy's job.

Yeah, ask Ronnie.

This is a troll thread if ever there was. Even the great Nate admits he lacks sufficient evidence. That makes his "prediction" nothing more than SWAG. Actually just WAG.

Ronnie?

The international arms dealer who tripled the debt and granted amnesty to millions of people?
 
Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

It must suck even more than usual to be a right wing nut about now.

Who?

And no Pres has one [sic] election with over 8% UE

cept maybe fdr

And before that, the number was 5%, until Reagan won with 7.4.

And there's always the possibility we can dip below 8% before November.

The problem with this kind of reasoning is the only three examples we have of an incumbant losing with a high number are Carter (7.5) Ford (7.7) and Bush-41 (7.3) All close to where Reagan was, actually.

Ford wasn't really an incumbant, and he barely lost, but what probably did him in was that he pardoned Nixon.

Carter and Bush-41 had the problem of facing a third party challenger that sapped their base. That probably had as much to do with them losing as the UE rate.

Carter also had a hostage crisis, gas lines, double digit inflation, double digit interest rates etc.

So having not pardoned an unpopular predecessor, faced a third party challenge or had other crisis to deal with, all Obama has is an unemployment rate that is bad, but not as bad as it was.

But the key thing is, Obama doesn't have a challenger of the caliber of Reagan or Clinton. He has a Weird Mormon Robot who isn't even liked by his own party.

You can boil it down by paraphrasing Ed Rollins: Obama ain't Carter and Romney sure as fuck ain't Reagan.

:D
 
So it sucks to be me because someone I dont know doesnt think Romney will win?

Thats the dumbest thing Ive ever heard.

Read some of your posts aloud and that will change quick.

No it won't. No need to lie about it.

My bad, I forgot who I was dealing with. Morons like you don't realize how stupid you are.

But you did admit that you are a right wing nut so there's hope for you yet! Acknowledging that there is a problem is the first step to recovery.
 

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